Sting this Thing: David West

Ah, what can I say about De-Dub that I don’t like? Well, not much really. Just a bit of background information, David West is my favourite player, in the league. What makes him my favourite player is how he plays the game. He’s not the most athletic player nor is he the best shooter, or the best rebounder, defender, passer or whatever, but to me he’s the hardest worker and most consistent player in the league. Fundamentally he is sound and he really is a true basketball player. That’s why I find it hard to believe that some people don’t like him. Unless your name is Dirk Nowitzki then you should love D-West because he optimizes hard work and consistent play. 

West is now 30 years old, and to most people once a player hits that age it’s all down-hill from there. For David this could very well be, but that’s just the reason why he won’t decline. He will still remain healthy (81 games played career high) and will put up numbers of around 18-8.

Last season West was the staple of the team for much of the year. With Chris Paul out, leadership roles once again were placed on West. With Emeka Okafor under-performing, Peja Stojakovic without a spinal cord and James Posey lethargically moving his way up and down the court, West had to take control of a playoff push with two improving rookies.

Although the Hornets crumbled without Paul, West seemed to produce at the consistent rate he has for the majority of his career. He was still able to score from the post, shoot jumpers and grab the occasional rebound. But where he improved the most was in his passing. West posted a career high in assists with 3, and it was not uncommon to find West finishing up a game with a stat-line of 20/7/5. Teams are now aware of West’s post game and so double-teams are almost a certainty with isolation’s very rarely occurring on the two-time all star.

What concerned me about West though is his defensive game. Constantly he was having to cover for defensive mistakes by our un-athletic guards and wings, which in turn would make him look quite bad. West also continued his decline of Blocks per-game after setting a career high of 1.3 in 2007.

I tried to find some kind of relation between West’s lack of defensive game and how the team performed as a whole. Looking at the graph it is clear that when the team was winning and posting a big difference between PF and PA that West also followed.

In 2007 West saw a peak in defensive productivity along with a team peak in defensive productivity

For me if West is to individually perform on the defensive end, so to must the team defense, it’s pretty logical.

The Hornets have to seriously question where DW’s replacement will come from. Craig Brackins may be the logical answer, but many question his toughness and willingness to go strong to the hoop. Darius Songaila is most certainly not the answer, and I expect him to leave the team after this season. This is a serious problem because if the Hornets are going to convince Paul to stay they must find a future power-forward for the long term future because by the year 2012 West could be gone.

So on to how I think West will perform this year. To be honest if David is to decline, it won’t be by much. Last season he posted 19/7/3 and I would expect him to post somewhat similar numbers. However with Paul coming back and the addition of Trevor Ariza I think there could be a fall-off in terms of points produced from the man from Xavier.

That’s not to say he’s going to lose his efficiency (after all his FG% was 50.5 second highest of his career). It’s just that I envision Thornton’s role to increase, Okafor to develop a rapport with CP and Ariza to maybe take away some of his looks too. Like I said, if there’s going to be a drop-off it’ll be in attempts.

Season Guesstimate: 

• Points per game: 17.5
• Rebounds: 7.6
• Assists: 3.3
• Blocks: 0.9
• Minutes per game: 37