2014-2015 Season Preview: Indiana Pacers Q&A
To help get ready for the 2014-2015 NBA season Pelican Debrief is going through each of the 30 NBA team’s with help from other Fansided NBA writers. Today we are joined by Ben Gibson who covers the Indiana Pacers for Eight Points, Nine Seconds Fansided’s Indiana Pacers blog.
1. The Paul George injury was obviously one of the lowest points of the NBA offseason. How exactly do the Pacers try to replace him this year?
Ben: They don’t. Or at least there isn’t a way to make up for the contributions he made on both sides of the floor, and particularly in defense. The Pacers defense worked well for a number of reason, and one was the fact that Paul George, Lance Stephenson, and George Hill have gigantic wing spans and easily defender the perimeter. Two of those guys are gone and their replacements aren’t known for their defense. That’s what worries me the most about Paul George’s absence this year. Indiana may find a way to make up his 21.7 ppg, but there isn’t a way to make up for the defense. That is worse when you consider that’s how the Pacers won games; the defense was the league’s best with a 99.3 defensive rating, but the offense was down at 23rd with a 104.1 offensive rating. We know the Pacers have a tough task this year, but knowing that defense is going to be much worse and not being sure where the offense is coming from looks to be a disastrous combination.
The Pacers mainly need to focus on finding out how good Solomon Hill, C.J. Miles and Chris Copeland can be. PG will be back at some point and you need to know what to do to bend around him.
2. There have been a lot of Roy Hibbert trade rumors floating around this summer. What are the odds he is actually moved?
Ben: I think the rumors we’ve heard are mostly BS, but I don’t think it is impossible they move Hibbert. I say that with a few caveats. Right now the big fella’s trade value is at an all time low and there was nothing he could do to change that in the off-season so I didn’t see the Pacers trying to move him unless they were going to get real value. Now the two most likely things to happen now for Hibbert are A) He returns to some semblance of his former self and can score a few points. Or B) He’s DOA this year, trade value is still low, and Indiana sells him to other GM’s on the change of scenery angle. Hibbert has a player option next year, so he may be an expiring contract. If the Pacers think he’s not going to pick that up it only seems logical the Pacers will want to move him. If that is the case, it still makes more sense to wait to see how the season starts if you are the Pacers because that can only increase his value. Don’t forget though even when he wasn’t scoring last season, he wasstill one of the best rim defenders in the league. The Pacers are smart to wait and see if they can get more value if they do need to move him.
I think the odds are low until we hear about whether he picks up that player option.
3. Can David West carry an offense at this point in his career?
Ben: Maybe. I still think he could score a few more points than he did last year since Lance Stephenson won’t be the second option. As long as the offense can give him enough space he will be able to score at least the 14 ppg he had last year if not more. According to Indiana’s usage rates from last year he was already the second option, but it always felt more like the option after Stephenson or George were unable to get a shot. I think he can squeeze out a few more buckets, but C.J. Miles and whoever is at small forward better find a way to make space for him to get a shot. If that isn’t happening I don’t see West creating too many of his own shots.
4. Where will the loss of Lance Stephenson hurt the Pacers the most?
Ben: The Shenaniganry department. Nah, it is going to hurt move on defense than offense. I think they can find a way to make up his 13.8 points a game (C.J. Miles was doing well for the Cavaliers before his injury), but back to my point earlier about PG and how the defense will handle both of their absences. The Pacers defense is created to have the wings force you into a contested jumper or 3-pointer, or to drive you towards Roy Hibbert and David West in the paint. The reason I brought up wingspan is because along with their actual defensive ability, it gave Stephenson, George, and Hill the ability to patrol the outside with ease. Some rounding here, but PG is 6’8 with a 6’11 wing span, Hill is 6’2 with a 6’9(!) wingspan, and Lance is 6’5 with a 6’10 wingspan. That allowed them to move less, creating fewer holes defensively. This year some mixture of C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, Chris Copeland, and Solomon Hill will be filling in at shooting guard and small forward. None of them are known for defense so I don’t know if the scheme Frank Vogel has used in the past will work as well with these guys.
Lance’s defense was always underrated, so for sure I’d say his contributions and how he fit into the defense are going to be most missed.
5. What is the best case scenerio for the Pacers at this point? The worst case? What do you think happens?
Ben: Best case is Roy finds his groove again, the new guys fill in enough to win games and earn a playoff spot. Indiana makes it to the playoffs, somehow Paul George is able to play, and they fight into the second round and miracles happen.
Worst case is Roy is unhappy and still a shell of himself, and then demands a trade. The Pacers don’t get value and add players that don’t fit and will be gone at the end of the year, somewhere in there Frank Vogel gets fired. David West comes to grips with his morality and sees no championship run for the Pacers in 2015-16. Even with PG back coming back, that can’t make up for the fact that now that Roy is gone, and demands a trade too. Paul George hurts something else trying to return to quickly and all of this kills Larry Bird‘s will to live, or at least manage a team, and he leaves the job. Boomer then loses his mind and sets fire to Bankers Life Fieldhouse while taking on a Joker-like persona. He terrorizes Indianapolis, kidnapping Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and Pacers beat writer Candace Buckner and asking Paul George to choose which one to save. Some people just want to watch the world burn.
More likely than either case, Indiana will find a way to eek out a 7th of 8th seed before exiting in the first round. I don’t see the team going into full collapse, but it will be hard to recalibrate the team with the current roster. The change in personnel is going to force changes on both sides of the ball. I think there is a better chance of the offense keeping in line with last year’s scoring totals, but how the effect on the defense and how they can handle the style of defense Vogel prefers is yet to be seen.
The Pacers have a lot of questions, and I don’t have a lot of answers.