2014-2015 Season Preview Q&A: Minnesota Timberwolves
To help get ready for the 2014-2015 NBA season Pelican Debrief is going through each of the 30 NBA team’s with help from other Fansided NBA writers. Today we are joined by Ben Beecken editor of Dunking With Wolves, Fansided’s Minnesota Timberwolves blog to talk Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and more.
1. The Ricky Rubio contract talks are going to be an interesting thing to follow due to how tough it is to value Rubio. Do you think he ultimately stays with Minnesota long term? What kind of contract would you like to see?
Ben: Yes, he’ll be in Minnesota long-term. I’d be surprised if a deal gets done before the October 31 deadline. I would expect Rubio to hit restricted free agency next summer and receive an offer sheet for four years and in the neighborhood of $48-52 million, which the Wolves will match.
For some reason, Flip Saunders seems hell-bent on making Zach LaVine a point guard, and because of that there remains a chance that Rubio could be traded at some point.
Word is that the Wolves have offered a four-year, $48 million deal. Ultimately, I’d go up to $52 million over four years for Rubio, and I’d like to think that Saunders sees enough value in his defense and offensive potential to offer him that kind of money.
2. How much do veterans Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovich play over younger players like Zach LaVine and Gorgui Deng? Is it worth it to do that?
Ben: Martin and Pekovic will both be starters this year, so they’ll be on the floor longer than LaVine and Dieng almost by default. The tricky part is that Saunders is both basketball operations boss and head coach, so he’ll need to balance the win-now and develop-the-future sides of the coin.
No matter how much Saunders tries to sell that these two ideals have serious overlap…well, they don’t. The optimal rotation won’t include the incredibly raw LaVine or second-year man Shabazz Muhammad. It will include veterans like Chase Budinger, Corey Brewer, and new addition Mo Williams.
Only Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and possibly Anthony Bennett fall into the “both” category — they’re the future, and they can produce at an NBA level right now. It’s a delicate balance, but Saunders will need to toe that line to keep the fan base and his veteran players engaged.
One thing that Saunders has already established is the managing of Pekvoic minutes in order to keep him on the court for more than 60-65 games over the course of the season. He can afford to do that now with Dieng’s emergence as a legitimately productive center
3. Outside of Andrew Wiggins which you Wolf has the highest ceiling in your mind?
Ben: Ricky Rubio. He’s only 23 years old, and has a generational talent in his court vision and passing ability. Shooting can be learned (see: Jason Kidd, even aspects of Steve Nash early in his career), and Rubio has tons of development remaining, not to mention the drive to be great.
LaVine likely has a very high ceiling as well, but he has a long, long way to go to get there, and it’s tougher to imagine him realizing that potential than it is to see Rubio improving his shooting percentage.
4. What kind of line do you expect from Wiggins this year?
Ben: If he can shoot 34%+ from long range and 80%+ from the free throw line, he’ll likely have had a very successful rookie campaign. The key will be balancing his occasional lack of assertiveness with taking shots as they come to him within the offense. Through two pre-season games, Wiggins has made all three three-pointers that he’s attempted, and they’ve all been spot-up attempts within the flow of the offense.
When he’s gotten into trouble is when he forces mid-range jumpers off the dribble. If he can use his dribble to get to the rim and take open jumpers within the flow of the offense, he can be the surefire Rookie of the Year and a star in the making.
5. What is the best case scenario for the Wolves this year? Worst case? What do you expect to happen?
Ben: Best-case scenario is that Rubio takes “the leap” offensively, Pekovic stays healthy, Bennett is a serviceable backup to Thaddeus Young, and Wiggins is a legitimate starting-caliber wing from day one. This would likely get the Wolves to 38 wins or so — not enough to make the playoffs in the West, but a very respectable total after losing Kevin Love from a 40-win team in 2013-14.
Worst-case is, as always, a rash of injuries. Given relative health, however, it’s not too difficult to see a 28-30-win team, given the absence of a top-six player in Love and the injury-prone nature of their top proven offense weapon in Pekovic.
My prediction is 34 wins. There are simply too many unknowns that the Wolves are relying on, and the Western Conference is extremely brutal. If they were in the East, 40 wins and a playoff berth would be on the table. But in the West, it’ll be tough to sniff the win total of a year ago.
All that said, it should be an exciting year. The development of Wiggins and others will be fun to watch, and Rubio and Co. will be good for 2-3 spectacular alley-oops plays per game. It’s a different era in Minnesota, and the fans are ready for the season to get started.