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Is it Time for the New Orleans Pelicans To Walk Away From This Core?

By Matt Cianfrone

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When the New Orleans Pelicans put together their current core there seemed to be a clear point where they would make a decision on if it should continue into Anthony Davis’ prime or not. With Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon unrestricted free agents after the 2015-16 season and Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans unrestricted the following summer, this coming season seems to be the one where final decisions were going to be made. Unfortunately, things don’t always work out according to plan and as the Pelicans enter this season yet again besieged by injuries, that decision seems cloudier than ever.

The latest blow is arthroscopic knee surgery for Tyreke Evans, his second such procedure on the same knee since May and his third since he arrived in New Orleans. Considering the Pelicans are not exactly forthright with injury information, how long exactly he will be out is something that may not be known until he returns. That said, if Evans is out until January, which seems at the very least possible, it may be time to ask the question that no one wants to ask.

Should the Pelicans walk away from this core?

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The hardest part of the question remains in figuring out what exactly the ceiling of this group is. Thanks to injuries over the past two years, the three players that it seems safe to consider the focus of the core, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis, have rarely been on the floor at the same time.

Per NBA media stats, three-man lineups featuring those players have played a combined 1207 minutes in the past two seasons, an astonishingly low number. Just last season the Atlanta Hawks had six different three-man combos go over that amount, and the Memphis Grizzlies had three; two teams that have just one star player and other high level supporting pieces around him like the Pelicans seem to be attempting to build with the Evans, Davis, Holiday trio.

Of course, knowing that, the easy solution seems to be just continue to wait and see what the Pelicans have in a larger sample size, something the Evans injury makes harder. If he does miss the 30 games before January 1, New Orleans will have to hope that Davis misses his yearly 10 games (a number which hopefully declines this year) before Evans gets back and that Holiday is back into the full swing of things as Evans returns. If Evans misses more time, (and considering the Pelicans reported Quincy Pondexter had arthroscopic knee surgery in May and he is coming up on six months since that point without being cleared to return that seems possible) it means that 2,000 combined minutes of lineup data on the three is not guaranteed. Either way one thing seems clear, if they decide this is the year to make decisions, the Pelicans are going to have a fairly small sample size decide on.

For many people waiting even another year isn’t a problem. After all, it won’t cost New Orleans any players or picks to run it back again with this group and outside of Kevin Durant joining the team this summer there don’t seem to be any players available that would drastically change the Pelicans fortunes in the next two years. But there is a cost New Orleans has to factor in.

Time.

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    • As much it stinks to accept it, Anthony Davis is not guaranteed to be in New Orleans for his entire career. While the Pelicans do have him locked up for the next six seasons, Davis has the chance to leave at some point, even without considering him forcing his way out via trade. To make sure Davis does stay a Pelican for his entire career, the team needs to build an actual contender around him.

    Through two years of the Holiday, Evans, Davis attempt, it is completely unclear if that would be possible. If Evans, or any of the other four important pieces (Holiday, Anderson, or Davis), misses significant time that means New Orleans wouldn’t be much closer to an answer three years after asking the first questions. Trying to figure out those answers could involve re-signing Anderson this summer and Evans and Holiday the next. Considering next season would be four years since the group was put together, New Orleans could be committing at least six or seven years of Davis’ youth to build a team without a championship ceiling.

    Of course, where exactly New Orleans goes if they decide to move on from this core is unclear. A second superstar next to Davis clearly makes the Pelicans a contender, but finding that player is really hard as Durant seems unlikely this summer and so do Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook next year. New Orleans may just have to get another group of players around the Evans and Holiday level and hope that health and luck breaks better in their favor this time around.

    How exactly to get those players remains tougher to figure out. Letting all four of Anderson, Gordon, Evans and Holiday walk for cap space could be an option, though New Orleans has never exactly been a free agent hot spot, even dating back tot he team’s first go around with a superstar in Chris Paul.  Yet none of those four players have a ton of trade value thanks to expiring contracts (Anderson and Gordon) or injury concerns (all four, really).

    All of this is what makes the Pelicans so fascinating to discuss. After all, Anthony Davis could turn out to be so good that it doesn’t really matter how New Orleans handles things at all. For all the guessing and arguing that may (and probably will) be done, only one thing remains clear.

    Once again, there are a lot of tough to answer questions surrounding the New Orleans Pelicans roster building strategy.

    Next: Tyreke Is Out Indefinitely

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