Pelica Debrief
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Why Have the New Orleans Pelicans Been So Bad On Offense?

By Brendon Kleen

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As the New Orleans Pelicans get closer to an easier January schedule, we take a look at what might be holding the offense back from taking advantage.

Close your eyes. Picture a New Orleans Pelicans guard jogging the ball up the court. Now, imagine the sort of action going on around him. Maybe that guard gives it up to one of his taller teammates on the elbow, and sets a pick for another guard. Maybe he initiates a pick-and-roll with the rest of his teammates dotting the floor around him. Often, it is the former, but since Tyreke Evans has returned from injury, it is too often the latter.

Alexis Ajinca, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson are capable of creating space with their size, forming effective picks while also passing or handing the ball off. Size ( both vertical and horizontal) up and down the roster should be a nightly advantage on offense for the Pelicans, as Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon and even Alonzo Gee frequently present physical mismatches for the opponent.

Look here at how Gee, Ajinca, and Evans set nearly simultaneous picks to free Anthony Davis after the initial dribble handoff from Ajinca to EG:

That was the first set of the game for the Pelicans on offense. Obviously, in-game planning and human memory take some of those looks away as the game progresses. Let’s look at another Pelicans possession from the Blazers game (remember, the Blazers are 21st in Defensive Efficiency, and represent a team the Pelicans should be able to take advantage of).

Here, Evans hijacks a possession by reverting back to the simple high pick-and-roll (also of note is how frequently he will wave an otherwise-occupied big over to him just as the offense is getting set. It’s often hard to tell if the pick was part of the original plan for the possession).


Every defender except for the recovering Lillard has a foot in the paint. Gordon initiated the play by giving it up to Reke, yet stands five or so feet behind the three-point line, a position of ineffectiveness. Ajinca appears ready to set a pick for a cutting Gee, but Evans instead continues down the baseline before other options appear, tossing an overthrown lob to AD, who fails to finish it off. The biggest problem in the new starting five seems to be Gee. While he’s continuously called upon to shut down the Jimmy Butlers and C.J. McCollums of the league, teams don’t respect him on offense. Though he made a three in the Bulls game, Gee is shooting only 26% on threes this year, and 28% on catch-and-shoot looks.

Going back to Evans, his numbers since coming back seem, at the very least, in line with the ways he was able to lead an efficient Pelicans offense last season. However, the statistics available via NBA.com’s Player Tracking data show a much less Reke-ish season for the team’s new starting point guard. Last year, Evans drove to the hoop 11.8 times per game, making 44% of the shots at the end of those drives for a whopping seven points per game. This year, those numbers are down to 9.9, 38.5 and 5.6. His usage rate is actually down 2 points, yet watching the offense, he seems to be hurting it this season more than he helped it last season.

Another explanation could be even more simple. Reke is shooting more threes; almost an entire three-point shot per 36 minutes more than last season. And while a 42% success rate is nice, it comes at the detriment of the rest of the team’s lateral motion-based offense because too often, Reke fancies himself a pull-up sharpshooter. That one shot per game increase can almost fully be explained by his pull-up reliance. He is shooting 29% on two pull-up threes a game, a shot selection that seems almost insane for anyone who has watched Evans at any point in his career. These tries get him more than a full point less per attempt than guys like Avery Bradley or Arron Afflalo, players who pick their spots within similarly motion-full offenses to help their team rather than hijack its possessions.

Watch here as Bradley pulls up in consecutive possessions. In the first, he takes a shot early in the clock when given space on a manageable mid-range shot. In the second, he pulls up from three only after he is forced to bail out a broken possession.

There are ways that Evans can take advantage of a shot he might feel more comfortable with this year or decrease the stress on his injured knee, but almost all of them rely on an understanding of where and how to take shots within Gentry’s system. Luckily, per Basketball Reference, his assist numbers (both percentage and per 36) and turnover rate are both about where they’ve always been, despite even with the slight downtick in usage. Perhaps time and health are all Tyreke needs to get back to this aggressive ways.   

The guy he replaced has benefitted from some regression to previous norms, leaving the team with an even greater need for Tyreke to get right and balance out the lineups. As a starter, before Evans’ return, Jrue Holiday shot 40% from the field over more than a month of games. Since beginning to come off the bench, he is shooting 53% with an offensive efficiency of 130 points per 100 possessions in just less than half the minutes he posted as a starter in October and November, per Basketball Reference.

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When watching the Pelicans, there are times when it’s easy to see possessions where Evans is the lead guard as something resembling the “ceiling” of the offense, and those with Holiday at the point as the “floor”. Tyreke’s explosive style and tenacious athleticism often end in fun lob dunks or and-ones, while Jrue runs through the rhythm and flow of the motion-based system in a much more efficient way.

However, the numbers show that efficiency in Jrue’s game to an even higher degree than what is usually visible on the court. In lineups featuring the spaced-out Ryan Anderson-Anthony-Jrue Holiday three man combo, the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 17 points in 158 minutes (and has been one of the Pelicans best offensive rebounding groups), per Basketball Reference. Especially in wins, his effect is felt. Holiday has had a true shooting percentage of 62.5 in those victories, posting an offensive rating of 123 points per 100.

It seems the bench role and increased minute load as he returns to health are both valuable to the team on the offensive end. What is not valuable to the efficiency of the team’s offense, however, is Ryan Anderson’s iso-heavy long-range gunning. On pull-up and catch-and-shoot opportunities, Anderson is shooting 40% and 43%, respectively. Those are the shots Ryno lives for. And while there are surely warm fuzzies that choke the most passionate fans up as memories from the last year’s Warriors series surface, those shots are not helping the team. They too often come at the expense of other, better looks, rather than within the flow of an efficient set play.

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Look at this play in semi-transition. Davis corrals the rebound after a transition attempt, gives the ball back to Ish Smith, who attempts to reset the offense with a pass to Ryno. Davis has solid post position, and the defense is scrambled past ideal pick-and-roll defensive position. Instead of taking advantage of that, Anderson pulls up from mid-range over the long arms of Aldridge. It goes in, but the offense does nothing to challenge a fearsome Spurs defense.

Over time, these looks will stop falling as defenses switch more aggressive on-ball defenders onto Ryno or double team him immediately. He’s only averaged one assist per 36 minutes over his career, a very low number for someone with a high usage rate and reputation as a plus offensive player.

Of course, it’s silly to discuss the Pelicans offense without discussing Anthony Davis. This year, Davis is using 27% of the Pelicans possessions for his own scoring opportunities, in line with guys like Kobe Bryant and Paul George, and above Kevin Durant, per Nylon Calculus. His effective field goal percentage is down 3 percent from career norms, likely a result of his below-average three-point percentage. His assist percentage is also down from last year, and his teammates are only producing an eFG% of 53 on scoring opportunities created by AD’s passing.  

It’s representative of the team’s dysfunctional offense that its superstar, high-usage centerpoint is using lots of possessions to produce inefficient looks for himself and his teammates. As Davis goes, so the Pelicans seem to go. This seems intuitive, but the hope would be that with offense-first guys like Ryan Anderson and Tyreke Evans around him, the defensively-gifted Davis would be able to use his versatility and playmaking to be more of a piece within a system that takes advantage of his skills as opposed to the piece within a system that is supremely dependent on his skills.

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Davis has a lower usage rate and a higher field goal percentage in wins. Also of interest is that he collects almost four more rebounds per game in wins. The Spurs win in primetime pops out as the most representative of what the niche he should have on a winning team. He got involved early, made some shots throughout, rebounded the hell out of the basketball, and made some clutch putbacks and mid-range jumpers in the fourth quarter before closing out the game with some great defensive plays.

A combination of outrageously bad injury luck, odd trends from its best playmakers, and a lack of cohesion within a system that requires it have left the Pelicans struggling to tread water, even in a Western Conference that is proving more playable than last year’s slaughterhouse.

Obviously, seven wins in the past fifteen games represents progress, and the offense isn’t the only problem. Hopefully, Alexis Ajinca can continue to progress on both ends, making Omer Asik’s struggles more palatable. Tyreke and Jrue have outscored the opponent by 33 points per 100 possessions in lineups featuring them both. Quincy Pondexter should be back in the next month or so and replace Dante Cunningham in the rotation. The team is only 8-19.

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There are signs that the offense can come back to life and help mitigate the defensive problems, and with a smart coaching staff like Gentry’s, the hope is that the team can perform better as the issues become clear.

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