How Anthony Davis Can Save the Pelicans 20 Million Dollars

As some of you may know, there is something in the NBA known as the “Rose Rule” which allows young NBA stars to make 30% of their team’s cap as opposed to 25% of their teams cap following their rookie deal.

If you’re familiar with the Rose Rule and don’t need a breakdown of how it works feel free to skip to the picture of Derrick Rose.

After a player’s rookie contract runs out they become a “restricted free-agent” and enter the open market. Any NBA team with enough cap room is free to offer them a deal, with the caveat that being “restricted” means as long as the team which drafted the player is willing to match the outside offer, they get to keep him regardless.

A max contract for a 4th year player is 25% of the cap. The “Rose Rule” allows only the home team to offer a 30% of the cap deal instead. The name of the rule reference Derrick Rose, who received the deal following his MVP season with the Bulls.

To be given a Rose Rule exception a player must do one of three things:

A) Start on two All-Star teams 

B) Make two All-NBA teams

C) Win an MVP award

Anthony Davis received his contract extension this summer, though some people don’t realize he didn’t actually sign for any specific amount of money. Anthony Davis simply signed a deal for the maximum % he can make of the 2016 cap.

(If you skipped here, congrats on your NBA knowledge)

The bottom line is that Anthony Davis will receive a maximum deal this summer, but the maximum will either be 25% or 30% depending on his performance this season.

So far Anthony Davis has made 1/2 All-NBA teams, started in 1/2 All-Star games, and has yet to win an MVP. As of today, he has not qualified for a Rose Rule extension.

The 2016 NBA salary cap is projected to be about 89 million dollars (almost a 20 million dollar increase over one season). If Anthony Davis makes 30% of that, he will be paid 26.7 million dollars in 2016, which would increase by 4.5% each season.

Over the course of its five-year duration. If Davis makes just 25%, he will make just 22.2 million in 2016 instead. Over the course of a five-year deal, it’s the difference between a 145 million dollar deal and a little over 120 million dollar deal.

So, the impact is notable. Following Davis’ 14-’15 performance most Pelicans fans assumed it he would easily qualify for the Rose Rule after this season. Surprisingly, he’s right on the verge.

He’s got to either start on this season’s All-Star team or make All-NBA, since at this point winning an MVP is literally out of the question.

Here’s the tallying of All-Star votes for the front-court in the Western Conference.

If voting ended today the front-court would be Kobe Bryant-Kevin Durant-Draymond Green. At this point, Davis has virtually no shot at surpassing Draymond, Kawhi Leonard, or Blake Griffin.

That means that Davis making 145 million or 120 million comes down solely to his ability to make an All-NBA team.

Last year Davis was able to make first team All-NBA largely because his team finally made the playoffs, he had (so far) a career season, and many of the other candidates (Paul George, Kevin Durant, and DeMarcus Cousins) missed significant time that year.

This season, not only are those players back and healthy, they’re even better than they were before. Additionally, healthy players like Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green have stepped it up even more as well and are arguably having some of the best seasons in history for a pair of versatile forwards.

Still, the odds Davis makes an All-NBA team are in his favor. First or second team may slip past him since his team is terrible and his stats have regressed, but the third team center position looks like his best bet.

Here’s a world where Davis doesn’t make an All-NBA team, just to provide the hypothetical.

First Team All-NBA:

Steph Curry

Russell Westbrook

Lebron James

Kevin Durant

Draymond Green

Second Team All-NBA

Chris Paul

John Wall

Kawhi Leonard

Paul George

Demarcus Cousins

Third Team All-NBA

Damian Lillard

Kyle Lowry

Jimmy Butler

Blake Griffin

Marc Gasol/Tim Duncan/LaMarcus Aldridge/Kevin Love

See what I’m saying? I would like to say that it’s a sure thing Davis makes it over one of these front-court players, but it simply isn’t. Depending the Pelicans record, his personal production, and his health, if 9/12 of the players I listed above make it over him then he’s going to get a slap in the head from his accountant.

Still, I would put the odds of him making an All-NBA team above 50%. He at least has name recognition from last season, and hopefully people being lenient about putting him at C and not just PF increases his chances.

Still, it’s an interesting discussion. As a Pelicans fan, are you rooting for him to make it or not?

On one hand he’s your favorite player, you should want him to succeed. On the other hand a bad season from Davis would mean 20 million dollars in cumulative free space and also a higher lottery pick…

I guess it comes down to whether you are a fan of Anthony Davis, or a fan of the team he plays for.

Personally, I think he would still be able to feed his family pretty well either way, so I’m perfectly happy to give the Pelicans some extra room to play with at his cost.