The New Orleans Pelicans will miss the playoffs this season
Asking a revamped New Orleans Pelicans roster and staff to gel quickly enough for a return to the playoffs after only one season away is too tall a task.
Last year in the Western Conference, only three teams finished with worse records than the New Orleans Pelicans: the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Phoenix Suns, and the Los Angeles Lakers. With the Wolves on the cusp of greatness with a new coach and another lottery pick in tow, and the Lakers and Suns both having added pieces to their young cores, there is reason to believe all three will improve during the upcoming season.
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Between the Pels and the eighth seed lay the Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings, and Utah Jazz. With modest-to-explosive improvements from players like Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris, the Nuggets too could be on the inside looking out come playoff time. The Utah Jazz are fresh off a productive offseason in which they bolstered their depth and their total wins floor by adding, among others, Boris Diaw, George Hill, and Joe Johnson. They ought to be fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round by April.
By these estimates, that leaves the Lakers, Suns, and Kings as the only Western Conference teams who clearly rank below the Pelicans in the conference’s hierarchy. Heck, even the Kings added a new coach whose creativity may finally unlock their toolsy young players. To get back to the playoffs, the Pelicans will have to do nightly battle in the standings against four teams: the aforementioned Nuggets, Jazz, and Wolves, along with the Houston Rockets, who were the actual victors of the eighth seed last season.
The Pelicans surely improved over the offseason, but will that be enough? By all accounts, their additions are relative bargains and will immediately inject a level of skill and versatility that will better fit the personnel already in place and the desired style of the coaching staff on both ends. It’s reasonable to imagine the team weathering the injury storm decently enough this season to stay in contention even if its various health situations are prolonged. By January, the parts ought to have stopped moving, and the team will know what it has in each player. If any or all of the injured rotation pieces can return, it’ll be to help the Pelicans during a defining stretch run.
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Vegas Insider’s NBA Futures odds have the Pelicans with the tenth-best shot at winning the West (they’re being given 75/1 odds), behind seven of last year’s eight playoff teams, plus the Wolves and Jazz. The sportsbooks have already guessed the Pelicans will leapfrog the depleted Dallas Mavericks, but I could see them surpassing Houston and Portland if things go haywire. If nothing else, the Pels production floor has risen; I see no path to embarrassment for this team. Missing the playoffs will be a disappointment, but the true goal this season is to develop the chemistry and style of the roster.
The odds are stacked against the Pelicans returning to the playoffs in 2017. Of course, other teams have health scares every year, and assuming the continuation of development from young players who shocked us last season is dangerous. But nearly every team in the West has reason to believe they’ll be better, and almost every squad has a player who can credibly go tit for tat with Anthony Davis on the offensive end. If the bit players don’t gel, poor health up and down the roster continues to linger, and key contributors in the frontcourt don’t bounce back, there will be nothing left for the 2016-17 Pelicans to hang their hat on.
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In an ultra competitive and improving Western Conference, that slim margin is scary. Simply put, a lot has to go right for the Pels to be playoff contenders. For several other teams, that is not the case; they can suffer injuries or poor play and stay great. But while there is reason for optimism about the Pelicans’ odds of improving in 2017, the climb is simply too steep back to the playoffs. The New Orleans Pelicans will not make the postseason this year.