New Orleans Pelicans: Final roster spot falls to Alonzo Gee or Lance Stephenson

The New Orleans Pelicans Opening Day Roster basically falls down to one final decision for the front office: Alonzo Gee vs. Lance Stephenson.

It looks like today’s the day. Or tomorrow? After Saturday’s news that the New Orleans Pelicans have cut the two most recent signees, Quinn Cook and Quincy Ford, the roster stands at 16. The final men standing are the two we knew would be here all along; not warm camp bodies, not vets who are around in case of injury, not scouting keep-arounds.

Pelicans' final roster spot expected to come down to Alonzo Gee and Lance Stephenson. Deadline for a decision is Monday at 5 p.m.
— Justin Verrier (@JustinVerrier) October 22, 2016

Lance Stephenson and Alonzo Gee play the same position nominally, but will provide very different things if they stick around. The easy thing to point out is that one of these men is a close friend of the franchise’s cornerstone and the other once blew in LeBron James’s ear. But the Pelicans’ front office is staring at a roster both bloated and flawed, and has an important decision to make.

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By splitting the minutes up so evenly this preseason, coach Alvin Gentry has given even those players (like Chris Copeland) cut early in the process a chance to earn attention. No player averaged more than Buddy Hield’s 27.3 minutes per game, according to Real GM. Terrence Jones, who has been allowed to play with the ball in his hands quite a bit, has thrown up 14 shots per game, but no player besides Buddy and Anthony Davis who was around for at least five games this preseason averaged double-digit shot attempts.

The offense clearly flowed through Jones, Hield, and Davis when they were on the court, and for the majority of the game, one of them was. This shows us two things: that even though Lance was given 24 minutes per game across each of the six preseason contests, he was able to tone down and make efficient his game to the extent that he quieted concerns about his ball dominance. Secondly, that this version of Lance can succeed on this roster and in this system.

If Stephenson can minimize his usage and focus on the areas where he is truly dominant (defense, passing, versatility) that’s a player New Orleans can get behind. In some ways, that player is a better version of Alonzo Gee. But the context of how the Pelicans would have to change to fit Lance is important. It’s also important also to remember that Alonzo Gee does have a minimum guaranteed deal in place for this season, while Lance’s contract is only partially guaranteed. That being said, here are the three most important factors in the Pelicans decision.

Three (?) and D

Edge: Alonzo Gee

Gee is a better lifetime three-point shooter, clocking in at 32.7% for his career. However, last year both players retreated back into the confines of their most efficient selves and dialed back the deep shooting. Gee attempted only 60 such looks, while Stephenson took 78. Lance was far and away the better shooter from three last season, making 39% of his looks.

However, Stephenson’s large role in the second half of the season with Memphis catapulted his volume far past Gee’s. In 26 regular season games with the Grizzlies last season, Lance posted the highest shooting volume of his career (11.8 attempts per game, per Basketball-Reference). He succeeded in that role, with an offense morphing to his game, but another reminder is due that the Pelicans will not need or ask him to be that player.

Gee’s defense was often the only beacon of hope on that side of the ball last year, especially in the way he was able to force turnovers and get the team’s transition offense working. He posted a nice 1.0 Defensive Box Plus-Minus in 2016, which looks even nicer next to Stephenson’s -0.3 mark. Here you have to weigh the effects of switching teams on Lance, but he ended up on a defensive-minded roster (albeit one in shambles) at the end of the year and failed to make the most of it (during his time with the Grizzlies, his DBPM was even worse at -1.3).

Gee was able to become comfortable as one of the only constants on a less-talented roster, while Lance struggled to adjust to an increased playmaking role and his third new system in two seasons.

Role

Edge: Alonzo Gee

This one really comes down to subjectivity, and in this case it’ll probably rest on the specific vision that the Pelicans have for this roster. In many cases, the bottom of the roster ought not to play much at all in a successful season. But considering the way the Pelicans are trying to overhaul their roster and Lance is trying to make a comeback, these has become an uncommon situation.

Since breaking out in 2012-13, Lance has never played less than 25.8 minutes per game (excluding his stint with the Clippers at the beginning of last year). Outside of two years with the post-LeBron Cavaliers, Gee has never bounced above the 22.4 he averaged with the Pels last year (again per Basketball-Reference). Minutes don’t dictate role of course, but Gee fits the bill perfectly of an end-of-the-bench journeyman. Considering the struggles Lance has had translating his game into different roles and locker rooms, this is more important than it would be otherwise.

One season

Edge: Lance Stephenson

Before we get carried away, remember that to even call this decision one season long would be exaggeratory. Whoever makes the team will fade into benchwarmer status upon Jrue Holiday’s return unless his performance boots one of the other rotation members down a rung. In that sort of situation, it’s hard not to fall in love with the potential of someone like Stephenson; that’s exactly what he had in his opportunity with the Grizzlies, and he capitalized. Yet something feels off.

Both of these players have decently long careers, and both have bounced around the league a fair bit. But this decision will only be impactful for this single season. It’s likely that the Pelicans find a long-term solution to their wing depth issues next summer, and this move is really only impactful in a handful of games. That should be the priority. This changed version of Lance Stephenson (one who rarely even tries to shoot and struggles to balance offense and defense) is no one’s version of a savior, especially a team with so many alternatives at the point of attack.

Alonzo Gee is similarly unimpactful, though his positives still probably outweigh his negatives. He fits the bill so much more nicely as a fifteenth man, and his fit is more ideal should injuries or inconsistencies strike. It is just too hard to believe that a player with a history like Lance’s can change in one summer, and be a productive piece in a reduced role.

Next: Podcast: Talking Pels and Bucks with Matt Cianfrone

Final Verdict: Alonzo Gee II, Lance Stephenson I

These and many more are the discussions Dell Demps, Danny Ferry, and co. will be faced with over the following 48 hours. The combination of Gee’s guarantee and Lance’s confusing inconsistencies paint a clear picture. The Pels decision-makers have all the tape, quotes, and time they need. Ideally, nothing really rests on their decision at all. And that’s as far as you need look for the rightful basis of the decision.

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