Even after last night’s surprising win against Oklahoma City Thunder, you can still start to hear the panic button being pressed by many Pelicans fans and supporters.
After their hot start, the Pelicans have fallen on hard times. Since Eric Gordon‘s injury in Utah, the Pelicans are 1-3, losing to Sacramento, Atlanta, and Washington before winning last night. In the past four games, the offense is scoring an average of 93 PPG in the past four games, which is much higher than the first three games shows, as the Pelicans scored 112 points last night.
The Pelicans aren’t getting any help from the guys on the bench in that stretch, with the bench only averaging a little more than 29.6 bench PPG. If you take Ryan Anderson out of the equation (whose averaging 15.8 PPG) and replace him with Austin Rivers (averaging 6.6 PPG), the true “bench” players are averaging only 20.4 PPG, lower than any other bench unit in the NBA (CLE is last with 21.7 PPG from their bench).
So how did the Pelicans get in this predicament? The blame has to start with the man who crafted this team, Dell Demps. To really understand how this team became who it is now, you have to analyze every decision Demps has made since his introduction in July of 2010.
Let’s start off with the positives. Like most GM’s, Demps had an interesting roster to begin with. He began with a playoff caliber roster that included Chris Paul and David West. His first big move was to go after SF Trevor Ariza, giving the Pelicans a three-point shooter and an upgrade on defense, giving away SF James Posey and exciting young PG Darren Collison.
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His other moves in his first year could definitely be considered steals. He was able to flip SF Julian Wright for sharpshooting SG Marco Belinelli. He also flipped Craig Brackins and Darius Songaila for SG Willie Green and PF Jason Smith. Later on in the year, he traded SG Marcus Thornton for PF Carl Landry.
There has always been a history of great under-the-radar moves to get good role players for Dell Demps. He’s always had that history. Belinelli, Landry, Green and Smith all contributed well to the team in that season, which included pushing the Los Angeles Lakers to six games in the First Round of the Playoffs. Each had to fill a key hole, especially Landry, who filled in for the injured David West in the series.
In the years since, Demps has gone after players that are “buy low” candidates. His underrated free agent pickups that have worked out well in the NBA include Gustavo Ayon, Donald Sloan, Lance Thomas, Brian Roberts, and Luke Babbitt. In some of those cases, Dell Demps has been able to flip those pieces around for great rewards.
Demps likes to take those underrated pieces he finds and “sell high” on them for pieces he think can turn into top-notch players. He flipped Gustavo Ayon for PF Ryan Anderson, who is now one of the brightest spots on this Pelicans team. He had to be smiling when Brian Roberts stepped into the role of PG last year with Jrue Holiday’s injury and played exceptionally well.
When analyzing Dell Demps, you have to consider the game of being a GM like gambling. And Dell Demps is the ultimate gambler. In the situations above, he takes bad hands and gambles on the possibility of him hitting something worthwhile. Sure, giving guys like Gustavo Ayon, Brian Roberts and Luke Babbitt reasonable time on the floor is not going to get you into the playoffs, but it does give you pieces to move around.
However, the gambler mentality of Dell Demps is a double-edged sword. While Demps is great at turning what seems like useless pieces into actual trade chips, what he does with those pieces is usually a disappointment, and not always for the same reasons. It’s not necessarily that Demps is making poor decisions due to lack of intelligence. Demps is a very smart guy. However, it’s almost as if he has a young kid’s mentality at a casino. He fails to think through the long-term ramifications of the situation, and just goes for a “Let’s go for it!” train of thought, which in many cases, backfires into problems the team has now.
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Take for example the Jarryd Bayless trade. New Orleans decided to trade a protected 1st round pick (protected for picks 1-7) in exchange for Jarryd Bayless. While his good relationship with Monty Williams was the reason for getting him, the price was too risky. The first round pick ended up being Tobias Harris, who worked out pretty well in the NBA, quite possibly being the best player on the Orlando Magic. Bayless on the other hand struggled to find any time in the rotation behind Chris Paul and was traded with Peja Stojakovic later on for David Anderson, Marcus Banks and Jarrett Jack. While Demps felt Bayless was a good fit and was willing to gamble, it ended up backfiring on the fact he didn’t fit into the rotation.
Then there was the financial decision to get Rashard Lewis. The Pelicans knew they were in full rebuild mode, and shed both of their long-term money deals in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza to obtain Rashard Lewis’ massive deal and bought him out to open up cap space for the future. This wasn’t so much a bad move on Dell Demps part, just a quick decision to give up on Ariza, who they had only had on the roster for two full seasons. His numbers had dropped mightily, and Okafor had dealt with major issues. Demps decided to move on at this point, but some could consider giving up so quickly on Ariza a risky move. Demps changed his strategy up this one time to clear up space instead of his usual short-term gamble moves to try and further the process of making the playoffs. In his first few seasons, these gambles were rare. That changed as those moves started to multiply once Anthony Davis came into the picture.
The saga of the Chris Paul trade could only be described as chaotic. The madness started with the first deal Demps agreed to that got New Orleans Luis Scola, Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin and Goran Dragic along with a 1st round pick, to the new deal that got them Eric Gordon, Al Faroq Aminu, Chris Kaman and a 1st round pick from the Clippers. It was chaotic. Demps was put in a tough position though from the beginning. Dealing away a superstar is an impossible position to judge from a GM going on his third year at his position. You can’t hark on him too much for what happened, especially with the involvement of David Stern and the NBA. What he did after that madness is what really stamps his legacy as the New Orleans GM so far.
Once the franchise realized just how gifted a player Anthony Davis was going to be, the push to get into the playoffs became mission #1. There was two ways Demps could’ve handled this situation. Either build a team with young players he bought low on, developing a core going forward in the future, or try to gather up big pieces to pair along Anthony Davis, and figure things out from there. Demps, showing his rushed risk-taker mentality, decided to go the second route. He knew the management wanted this team in the playoffs ASAP, and decided to try and gather the top-level talent fast.
The offseason of 2013 was the introduction of the real “gambler” side of Dell Demps. The first transaction of that train of thought showing was in the 2013 NBA Draft. The Pelicans found themselves in an odd position, with the projected #1 pick Nerlens Noel fall to them at pick #6 due to injury concerns, which would keep him out for his rookie season. Demps, once again in the mindset of trying to get the team to the playoffs as soon as possible, traded the rookie along with the team’s #1 pick in next year’s draft for a “win now” prospect in PG Jrue Holiday.
Jrue didn’t necessarily fit the “Buy Low” mentality of Demps, but it was a huge gamble, something Demps has made a few times in his tenure. Many considered the price steep, but Demps felt the pressure on him to win now. He wasn’t done gambling there. His next gamble would be centered around the tenure of Robin Lopez and Greivis Vasquez in New Orleans.
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Lopez and Vasquez were both acquired in Dell Demps’ buy low style, Vasquez acquired for Quincy Pondexter, while Lopez was acquired to replace Emeka Okafor when New Orleans traded away Brad Miller and Jerome Dyson. Both players ended up being big contributors to the Pelicans alongside Anthony Davis while Eric Gordon was dealing with injuries. Both after their seasons in New Orleans were considered “steal pickups”. It looked like they could be parts of the puzzle. Then, the gambler in Dell Demps looked at his chips, and decided once again to double down. He traded both Robin Lopez and Greivis Vasquez in exchange for combo guard Tyreke Evans and rookie center Jeff Withey.
Tyreke Evans had his struggles finding his position in Sacramento, and also dealt with a mess of guards being around him. His skill set was one that was tough to find in the league. He drove to the basket with aggressiveness and ease, scoring on runs at will. Demps wanted that player to pair with Anthony Davis and the rest of the pieces he acquired. He now had two strong guards to pair alongside Gordon. A three-headed monster at the guards. He had a marksman in Ryan Anderson. The talent was there. The plan was in place. The team was set. Then, injuries struck all season, and we didn’t get to see the full team perform in the 2013-2014 season.
Demps went back to his philosophies with the most recent transaction of Omer Asik, trading Houston a 2015 protected first round pick for a center that had problems with management being stuck behind Dwight Howard during his time there. The rhythm of trading away draft picks fit what the team wanted. To win now. Asik gave the Pelicans something they lacked. A rim protector. The final piece to the puzzle. It was set. It was finally time for this team to realize their potential, and for all the hard work of Demps to pay off. So……why hasn’t it?
The double-edged sword of running an NBA team is the fact it’s not just about obtaining talent. If it was that easy, anyone could be a GM. Dell Demps did the job. He got the talent to help Monty succeed. He obtained players that each had specific skill sets to be in the starting lineup and came together to form a very dangerous lineup. Two things didn’t add up in Dell Demps formula for success. Money and Balance.
The big reason very talented players are in the “Buy Low” category is their price tag is too high. Demps ignored that and went after them anyway. He gave Jrue Holiday $10 million a year. He gave Tyreke Evans $11 million a year. He gave Ryan Anderson $8 million a year. He took Asik’s $8 million a year. Add those four contract along with $14 million a year for Eric Gordon and that leaves VERY little wiggle room to build a roster. All the other contracts the Pelicans have combined account for ~$15 million, and they’re very close to being over the salary cap as it is. While the talent is there to help AD, all of the talent cost more money than the star player himself, which seems like a very risky plan to bank on. The strategy forces New Orleans to depend on getting players such as John Salmons, Luke Babbitt and Jimmer Fredette, players they can afford at low costs, to play big roles off the bench. Roles they can not fill against high caliber NBA teams.
The other problem is the fit of the team. Every high talented players has his strengths, but also has weaknesses, and those weaknesses for all the players on the Pelicans seem to be counter-productive. The guards of New Orleans are great at stealing the ball, yet the transition game of most is lacking in execution. Jrue Holiday is a fantastic player overall, yet on an offense that lacks pure scorers, Jrue fails to be aggressive enough at times to keep the team afloat. Add that to Tyreke Evans who is almost too aggressive, resulting in blocked shots and bad turnovers, and it’s a formula for disaster.
Then there’s Omer Asik, who is a great rim protector, yet is very limited on the offensive end with a passive Jrue Holiday and an over-aggressive Tyreke Evans. It puts them in a bind. That’s where Ryan Anderson comes in. A sharpshooter who can create his own shot. Perfect….only until you see teams turn their offensive strategy into going after Ryan Anderson every trip down the floor, especially in the post where he lacks the build to hold off bigger Power Forwards. Asik’s rim protecting ability is no help when Anderson is the one being backed down every trip down the floor. The player’s weaknesses seem to counter-act each others strengths, something Monty Williams has not been able to solve. And the bench? They simply can’t score. None of the guys have enough talent to create their own shot.
Demps wanted to create a roster that was built with high-quality talent to surround his superstar PF. However, he failed to understand the limit it would put on him being able to get them to succeed while co-existing, and the inability to work around the situation if it did not work out by overpaying risky players. There’s a reason in gambling the casino wins most of the time. The system is set up to strive off of risky gamblers. It seems the business of the NBA GM’s is not much different. With all this knowledge of Dell Demps, let’s try to analyze the most baffling decision Demps has made. Eric Gordon.
Gordon was the biggest piece involved in the Chris Paul deal. His ceiling was very high, higher than any player involved in the original deal with the L.A. Lakers. However, his first season in New Orleans did not pan as expected. Injuries hurt his potential, and he was forced to miss most of the year. Then, Gordon signed a max offer sheet with the Suns. He also expressed publicly he hoped to play for the Suns because of their extensive effort to sign him. With all the money on the line for him, with all the comments he made and with all the risk that the deal had, why would Demps choose to match the offer sheet on Gordon? Simple. It’s in his blood.
Demps likes buying low. He likes taking risks. He wanted to show Eric Gordon he had a plan for this team. He was trying Rivers at the PG in Summer League. He had made the move for Ryan Anderson. Eric Gordon was the exact kind of player that fit his style as a GM. He didn’t want to let a high potential player go for nothing. It was a decision that will be overthought by many Pelicans fans for quite some time.
In conclusion, Dell Demps is a young GM who now has some years under his belt, and some decisions to look back on. His GMing style is one that can be successful in small bursts, but tends to be an unsuccessful one in the long haul. With the recent decisions with Darius Miller and Patric Young and the interest in Dante Cunningham, discussed more in depth by Matt Cianfrone (https://pelicandebrief.com/2014/12/01/dante-cunningham-bring-new-orleans-pelicans/), Demps has a plan to make more moves in the coming weeks. A famous cliche is that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and over, and expecting different results. In time, we will see what plans Demps has in store and if they differ from his previous strategies or not. Whether it will get this team closer to their potential of being a dangerous playoff team, or if it will back this team into a bigger financial hole for the future is to be seen.