With their loss last night to the Dallas Mavericks, the New Orleans Pelicans finished the first quarter of the season (20.5 games technically) under .500 and with just a single win over a team that currently holds a better than .500 record. For a team that many (myself included), expected to compete for a playoff berth this season it was a discouraging sign, even against the toughest schedule in the NBA.
Over the last four full seasons in the NBA, the team that has finished with the eighth seed in the Western Conference has averaged 47.5 wins meaning the Pelicans need to go 36-25 for the rest of the season to hit 46 wins and be in the race. So can they do it? I looked at every game remaining on the Pelicans schedule and tried to see if I could project 46 wins for the team which mean taking an optimistic look on a few games.
The rest of December is just brutal so finding wins here was tough. At the end of the day I got seven though which would be a terrific run for New Orleans. I had four really optimistic wins plugged into this breakdown though and they are all worth highlighting.
First is the December 18 game in Houston against the Rockets. Houston is without Dwight Howard for the forseeable future and has been playing terrific ball anyway. But they don’t have big men capable of playing against Anthony Davis and with Omer Asik not having to worry about Dwight in the pick-and-roll or in the post it should allow him to defend James Harden drives better than usual. With no Dwight I think this is a great match-up for New Orleans.
On December 20, New Orleans welcomes Portland who has been terrific all season, boasting a top 10 offense and defense so far. It won’t be easy but this is another game New Orleans matches up fairly well in so I took the Pelicans at home.
Finally there is the back-to-back to closeout the month. In reality the Pelicans would probably be happy if they were able to split the two games but the Suns are at home and the Spurs play Memphis the night before so Pop sitting all of his starters is a distinct possibility. With those two things in mind I went Pelicans in both games.
January is the month for the Pelicans to really make a run. I projected a 13 win month for New Orleans thanks to an Eastern Conference heavy schedule but there are a few projected wins that could turn into losses here. Neither Houston or Washington are easy games but since I don’t expect Dwight Howard to be back and the game is in New Orleans I went with the Pelicans there. As for Washington, the Wizard’s haven’t been great lately so I went New Orleans at home.
The other two games to watch are at Toronto and the Dallas game in New Orleans. The Raptors were cruising along early in the season but since DeMar DeRozan was injured they haven’t been the same. Winning in Toronto is tough as the Raptors home crowed is one of the best in the league right now but unless DeRozan is back and playing like his normal self (very unlikely) I’m taking the Pelicans at this point. Dallas meanwhile is a team that the Pelicans have pushed to the limit twice so I’m taking them to finally get over the hump at home.
If the projections go according to play that would leave the Pelicans with 20 of the 36 required wins in the bag by the end of January which is a great sign.
Add eight more wins to that total after February. The best part for the Pelicans playoff hopes is that here are only two projected wins in the month that feel like they could easily go the other way at this point. Oklahoma City on the 4th will be tough, especially considering that the Thunder will have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook fully back into the groove of things at that point but the Pelicans should be competitive in that game and at home it isn’t crazy to see them winning.
The other tough one is on the seventh against the Bulls. This isn’t the same Chicago team as years past though, as Derrick Rose still isn’t himself and the Bulls defense is just ninth in defensive efficiency at the moment according to ESPN.com. They could be back to usual by the time the game rolls around but with a ton of players with shaky injury histories I am taking New Orleans.
With eight wins remaining to hit that 46 win mark the Pelicans enter March, another month heavy on Eastern Conference opponents. Thanks to that schedule they go over the 46 win mark by the end of the month thanks in part to a seven game winning streak. The most exciting part is that only one of the games in that winning streak looks optimistic, the home game against the Grizzlies. In fact outside of the home game against Denver none of the other five games in the stretch seem possible for a healthy New Orleans team to lose right now.
The Houston and Sacramento wins at the end of the month are probably 50/50 games looking at the teams right now but both are at home so I leaned positive.
The Pelicans luckily hit the 46 win mark before April because they have a brutal final eight games. In that stretch New Orleans has six games against probable playoff teams and two against teams that they could be competing with for the final playoff spot out West. In this optimistic projection I gave them wins over Sacramento on the road and Phoenix at home but both of those games look like 50/50 chances at best right now. What could help is the Spurs should have a playoff seed locked in by the final game meaning the Pelicans are likely to play, and beat, the San Antonio backups.
While the projected 53 wins seems nice, a few things have to be kept in mind. These projections would have the Pelicans going 3-1 against Houston and 3-0 against the Spurs to finish the season. Move that 6-1 down to 3-3 and the record drops to 50 wins. The projections also have New Orleans going 9-2 against the combination of Portland, Phoenix, Sacramento, Washington and Miami the rest of the season. Drop that down to 5-4 and the record drops to 46 wins. There will also be games the Pelicans lose against teams that they shouldn’t something that wasn’t factored in here.
These projections also don’t factor in injuries, trades, free agent signings or growth which the Pelicans should have the rest of the season. Either way it is clear–getting to 46 wins is going to be a very difficult task for the Pelicans. Maybe this is the year that the eighth seed drops below that average of 47.5 wins but it probably will be somewhere close.
The Pelicans are growing each and every game and this isn’t a make or break season for the team, but the more they lose to good teams the harder it becomes to see them in the race for the eight seed. For a team that many projected to be in that race that would make this single season a disappointment, even if it doesn’t necessarily have long term ramifications.