Did the New Orleans Pelicans Overpay Omer Asik?

Omer Asik‘s contract has been the subject of much debate. Even though everyone got paid this offseason (Khris Middleton, anyone?), Asik’s five-year contract from the New Orleans Pelicans, valued at $44 million, seems steep. Quite a few fans have questioned the move, while another segment of fans have defended the move vigorously. Both arguments have their merits; however, the answer is not so black and white.

Omer Asik provides elite defense (or does he?), rebounding and a big body to set vicious screens. Also, do not forget that Asik is a human bulldozer that keeps punishment off of the Pelican’s big wonder kid, Anthony Davis, by absorbing the abuse of other team’s centers. Unfortunately, he provides next to nothing on the offensive end.

Asik is continuously thwarted by his mortal enemy, the rim, and he consistently bobbles and loses the rock when it comes his way. With a team that features Davis, Gordon, Evans and Holiday, the Pelicans do not need him to carry an offensive load, though. Instead, Asik has been asked to anchor the defense and grab every rebound in sight.

Two other starting-caliber centers received extremely similar contracts this offseason: Tyson Chandler (four years and 52 million) and Robin Lopez (four years and 55 million). Both of these guys are expected to fill the exact same role as Asik; play elite defense and grab every available rebound (any offense provided is lagniappe). So, how does Asik stack up against those two?

Last season, Asik, at the rim, held opposing players to 51.1% shooting. Tyson Chandler held the other team’s shooter to 50.9% at the rim while Robin Lopez held the opposition to 48.0% at the rim. When it comes to defensive win shares, Asik falls in the middle. Lopez tallied 1.9 defensive win shares, Asik finished with 2.2 defensive win shares and Chandler logged 3.1 defensive win shares.

Traditional counting stats do not make the picture any clearer. Asik only averaged 0.7 blocks a game, while Chandler averaged 1.2 blocks and Lopez averaged 1.4 blocks. Lopez averaged a paltry 6.7 rebounds a game (Nylon Calculus had an awesome article about Lopez’s rebounding and its value), Asik pulled in 9.8 rebounds a game and Chandler averaged an incredible 11.5 rebounds a night. 

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By looking at the numbers, a lot of people will conclude that Asik was overpaid.

His main duty on the roster is to play defense, and he actually allowed a higher shooting percentage (by 1.8%) than average on shots he was defending last season. Both Lopez and Chandler average more blocks, more points, and hold opposing players to a lower shooting percentage at the rim as well.

Here is where it gets really confusing, though. 46.8%. That is the shooting percentage Omer Asik allowed at the rim in his last season in Houston. Compared to Chandler’s 50.9% and Lopez’s 48.0%, 46.8% is an extremely impressive number. Despite what he did last season, Asik has the potential to be a top-tier defender. This is where the contract begins to make more sense.

If Asik’s pay was based on last season, he was grossly overpaid. He did not fulfill the role he was brought in to perform. Luckily for him, Demps is looking forward to Asik regaining his elite defensive form. Next season, Jrue Holiday will be healthy (hopefully), and the improved perimeter defense will make Asik look a lot more like the intimidating bruiser Pelicans fans long for. Also, the scheme change will be extremely beneficial for Asik.

While in Houston, Omer Asik played in a much more up-tempo system than Monty Williams‘ Pelicans. Ironically, the lumbering big man was much better while playing in a faster paced system. If Omer Asik can become the Pelicans’ version of Andrew Bogut, then the contract is a steal.

Omer Asik, when compared to the two other similar players that received similar contracts, has a much higher ceiling for development. Despite his advanced age (29 years old), Asik has only played five seasons in the NBA. Even when you factor in his international play, Asik’s odometer reading is still fairly low for a professional player.

Tyson Chandler, on the other hand, will most likely be declining at this stage of his career, despite only being 31 (he came into the league straight out of high school). Meanwhile, Robin Lopez most likely overachieved in Portland and will produce at a lower rate in his new scenery.

Keeping fingers crossed that last season was the exception and not the norm, Omer Asik was not overpaid this offseason. An improved scheme and perimeter defense will boost his production, and he still has room to grow as a player. Omer Asik can be the wildcard for this upcoming season, and it is very likely that the team goes as far as Asik’s interior defense can take them.

Next: Asik Checks in at Number 6

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