Why Anthony Davis Will Win the NBA MVP in 2015-16

We really haven’t seen a player like Anthony Davis. He is a special player, one that a single little blogger won’t be able to even come close to describing. His rare combination of athletic profile and basketball skillset is one of a kind. I’ve long held the opinion that the great players are ones that you can’t think of a comparison for. Anthony Davis falls right in that category.

He is the defensive anchor that Bill Russell was for the Celtics during their dynasty in the 60’s, showing the ability to chase guys off the perimeter and also protect the rim. His defensive versatility coupled with that freak athleticism and instinct is a borderline eighth wonder of the world.

Offensively, the sky is literally the limit. He is a pick-and-roll dunking machine, a target for just about any ball thrown in the air. Like, seriously. There is no place that this dude can’t catch an alley-oop.

His game is ever improving. Every year it seems as if he has added something new to his game. Last year, everybody saw the transformation of his jump shot, leading him to be one of the best shooters in the mid-range area in the entire league. There isn’t any one thing he can’t do on offense or defense, and he has the potential to be elite at just about everything.

It is for all of these reasons that I believe Anthony Davis will win the MVP next season.

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The case against that happening is strong and understandable. As currently constructed, this roster has limitations and a clear ceiling. Given how great the top of the Western Conference is going to be next season, it is hard seeing the Pelicans soar any higher than the sixth seed out West. Throw in the factor that their division is an absolute bloodbath, and that gives them nearly 20% of their schedule against the best of the best in the entire league. While Davis is great, he doesn’t yet have the side kick like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and other elite players have.

Most of the time, the MVP award goes to the best player on a championship caliber team. Since we’ve already put into context the fact that the Pelicans have a clear ceiling, that is a big case against Davis. Steph was the best player for the eventual NBA Finals champion Golden State Warriors, LeBron won MVP the two years they won it all, and Kevin Durant‘s Oklahoma City Thunder were one of the favorites before they ran into the San Antonio Spurs juggernaut and Serge Ibaka got hurt.

Davis, however, is going to put up insane numbers that will make him hard to ignore as an MVP candidate. At the frighteningly young age of 22, Davis is bound to improve. While it might be hard to see a guy so well-rounded as him improving in specific areas, every player, no matter what skill level, grows during those years. Here is a look at Davis’ stats from year to year thus far:

Now here is a modest projection, using his average rate of improvement each year for each statistic:

Obviously, my rough and weak math probably won’t come close to predicting what will accurately happen next year. With how much Davis has been working on three-pointers this offseason, 12.5% probably won’t be anywhere close to what his three-point percentage will be. Also, no player has ever broken a PER threshold of 32, making it absolutely impossible that AD gets to that projected 35.44.

All of the rest of the stuff, however, is totally realistic for him. Would you be surprised if Davis almost averaged 30 points per game along with 10 plus rebounds and over three blocks while shooting over 50% from the field? Definitely not out of the question. As for PER, Davis’ season last year ranks 11th all-time for a single season PER number. Did I mention he is only 22?

There are only five players all time that have ever had season averages of at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 54% shooting. That list, according to basketball-reference.com, includes Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-00, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar in 1976-77, David Robinson in 1990-91, Bob McAdoo in 1973-74, and Patrick Ewing in 1989-90. The only player not to win an MVP on this list? Patrick Ewing.

LeBron is still the best player in the world and Cleveland will be on the list of title contenders this season. Even still, he is on the wrong side of 30 now and showed a blip in several areas of his game last season. Kevin Durant is the most gifted scorer in the league, shoot one of the more gifted scorers of all time even, but he is coming off an injury that kept him out almost the entire season due to continued complications. Steph is awesome, but voters wanting a new face for the MVP is a real thing that happens, no matter who unfortunate it is. Russell Westbrook was phenomenal last year, but as long as Kevin Durant is healthy he will always be second on his own team. James Harden also has a legitimate chance, but the way he plays makes some fans and possibly even voters dislike him.

You can play the same pros and cons game with Davis, as we’ve already done, but he is on pace to put up historical numbers similar to what he has already put up in his short career. Anthony Davis is on the short list of players in the league who does things that make you question the laws of physics. It is for those reasons that he is going to win MVP in 2015-16.

Next: These Types of Plays Will Only Help AD Win

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