The New Orleans Pelicans struggles this season are far from a one man issue. The new defensive system has struggled as players try to figure things out, the new offensive system has had some flashes but has not consistently performed as well as hoped, and the injuries that the team is dealing with have left big holes in the rotation. That said, there are individual Pelicans that are struggling, and at the top of that group is Ryan Anderson.
On the surface, it doesn’t seem like Anderson is struggling. His 43.7 field goal percentage is actually the second best of his career and his rebounding per game numbers are near career highs as well. But dig a bit deeper and it becomes clear that Anderson is a problem currently for the Pelicans, and someone who has the potential to get worse before he gets better.
The biggest problem with Anderson right now is that his three-point shooting still has not returned to where it was prior to his neck injury two seasons ago. Anderson shot just 34 percent from three-point range last season, which was below the 35 percent league average according to basketball-reference. The story is much the same this season, as Anderson currently sits at 34.6 percent from behind the arc on five attempts per game, just barely above the league average of 33.9 percent. It is a far cry from where Anderson was before the injury, as his previous career-low before last season was 36.5 percent in his rookie season.
The three-point shooting drop, combined with a drop in free-throw percentage, has caused Anderson’s true shooting percentage to fall to just 53.6 a number that is the third worst of his career. Anderson has also seen his turnover rate jump to 10.9 percent despite a usage rate that is essentially the same as last season (23.1 this year and 23.4 last).
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Anderson’s biggest problem seems to be in the type of shots he is taking this season. Almost 20 percent of Anderson’s attempts this season have come off of one dribble, a number that is way too high for a player like Anderson who excels on spotting up and posting up smaller players. Anderson is not a threat to break anyone down off the dribble meaning those one dribble shots are a product of him trying to get himself open for shot attempts. So far this season, Anderson is shooting just 34.8 percent on shots he takes after one dribble per NBA.com player tracking data. Off no or two or more dribbles on the other hand, Anderson is much more of an efficient player, with effective field goal percentages over fifty on shots taken after no, two, three to six or seven or more dribbles.
With the amount of one dribble shots Anderson has taken this season, it isn’t a surprise to see that 28.6 percent of his shots have been contested “tightly”, with a defender within two to four feet, per NBA.com. Anderson is shooting just 30.8 percent on those shots, and has yet to make a three while being tightly defended.
All-in-all it isn’t a pretty picture for Anderson and it matches up fairly well with the eye test this season. Anderson has taken an incredible amount of contested fadeaway jumpers this season, especially ones with the Dirk Nowitzki style leg kick. While those shots can work ok out of the post with a smaller defender on him (and they have at points this year), the one-dribble fadeaway long twos have been too often a part of Anderson’s game. When Anderson stays within himself and takes reasonable shots he has played well this season, carrying the Pelicans for a few stretches during games. Ultimately, though, the poor shot selection has doomed Anderson and caused his struggles.
The problem for the Pelicans is that the struggles of Anderson have impacted the team. With Anderson on the floor this year the Pelicans are posting an offensive rating of 99.0 per NBA.com, just barely above the 98.0 they post with him on the bench. While part of that is that Anderson has played during most of the Pelicans minutes without Anthony Davis, he has also played next to Davis plenty as a replacement for Kendrick Perkins, Omer Asik and Alexis Ajicna.
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Considering Anderson’s defensive problems, the Pelicans are almost nine points better per 100 possession with him on the bench, the offensive struggles are extremely problematic. While Anderson should start shooting better from three (though considering last season that isn’t guaranteed), his two point percentages may drop soon. For a player that is hoping to cash in and get paid this summer, Anderson better hope that the improvements start happening soon.