Could the Pelicans Eventually Target Chris Paul?
Sportingnews.com writer Danny Leroux recently released an article discussing whether it is in the best interest of the Los Angeles Clippers to consider trading All-Star Point Guard Chris Paul.
Chris Paul is a free agent in 2017 and the goal of the trade would be the same as the goal of trading any pending free agent; to get something in exchange for them before they leave for nothing.
I won’t debate the merit of Leroux’s article, that’s his job. Weather the Clippers will legitimately attempt to move Paul by next season is something I can’t possibly know, what I can know is whether the Pelicans would be in the conversation if they did.
The goal of this piece will be to examine a world in which the Clippers do decide to go this route and see if the Pelicans are able to make a considerable offer.
Why the Pelicans are interested:
I love Jrue Holiday, but he’s not Chris Paul. If one thing has become apparent this season it’s that Alvin Gentry is only as good as his point guard.
The point being that for Gentry to run the offensive system he desires, he needs an extremely high IQ players capable of handling the responsibilities that come with it.
Chris Paul is nothing if not an extremely high IQ player. Maybe he isn’t capable of nightly 30 point outbursts the same way a Kyrie, Lillard, or Curry are, but with Anthony Davis locked down for the next five years that isn’t what the Pelicans need from their main ball handler.
Gentry was also an assistant coach for the Clippers a few years ago, and probably has an existing positive relationship Chris Paul, in addition to a familiarity with his game.
Also, he was drafted by New Orleans.
Weather they will admit it or not, players take their legacies very seriously. Chris Paul didn’t leave New Orleans with the same animosity that LeBron left Cleveland or Dwight left Orlando, but the point remains that a perfect “homecoming” is a great way finalize a player’s career.
The story writes itself. Chris Paul, beloved MVP level NOLA point guard leaves the Hornets, fails to build a championship team in LA, and then comes back to meet new Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis in the city that drafted him.
Someone get to work on the screenplay.
In all seriousness, the Pelicans and Paul would probably have more mutual interest than most of the teams in the league. Of the teams who will attempt to acquire him, I can’t think of one which would be willing to build around him he would also want to play for other than New Orleans.
What the Pelicans could offer
If the trend continues, Jrue Holiday will be a valuable free agent in 2017. He’s quietly in the middle of a career season and is likely to average around 18 and 7 over the rest of this season at 25 years old.
Paul is currently 17.6 points and 9.2 assists a game at 30 years old. Next season he will be 31, and enter the time when guards tend to fall off. He will still be a great player, but the point needs to be made that trading for Paul by this time of next season isn’t close to as difficult as trading for him a few years ago.
A package of Jrue Holiday, whoever the Pelicans drafted in the 2016 draft (likely a top 8-13 pick, their 2017 pick, and one other rotation player to make the salaries work (probably Tyreke) would be a very respectable offer if not even a little too generous. If they have to trade for him halfway through the 2016-2017 season and he makes it clear he wants to go there then the offer probably looks more like Jrue, a rotation player, and one pick rather than two.
The reason the Pelicans have some leverage is that Chris Paul very well might want to go here and hitch it with AD, and could make it clear that he will only resign with a few select teams. At that point, the Pelicans really only need to outbid two or three teams rather than 28 of them to land the expiring CP3.
What the Team Could Look Like:
This involves a bit of hypothesizing, but let’s asses what the 2016-2017 Pelicans would look like if the Clippers were to trade Paul either this offseason or part way into next season.
Jrue is the lead asset in the trade, and either Asik or Tyreke will be involved as well to make salaries work. Whichever one of Asik or Tyreke isn’t involved probably is being traded anyway since both of them are bad fits now and would be bad fits on this future team as well.
Meanwhile, Gentry’s recent comments suggest Ryan Anderson is likely to be resigned this offseason. He will most likely make 16-20 million, so I’ll meet him in the middle and say he makes 18 million that year.
That leaves us with AD (21 Mil$), Chris Paul (21 Mil$), Ryan Anderson (18 Mil $), Alexis Ajinca (5 Mil$) and Quincy Pondexter (4 Mil$).
Total = 69/88 million dollars used, 19 million in space.
To help at SG, I’m going to propose the Pelicans offer Arron Afflalo a 24/3 deal making 8 million a year (though he might take less to play with CP3 and AD). Luol Deng would probably be willing to sign for even less to try and win a ring, but I’ll be generous and still give him 21/3 with an opt out after year two.
I’ve now got 15/19 million spent with about 4 million left. I’ll sign Jamal Crawford so he can keep playing with CP3 before he hangs it up, and the I’ll pick up Aaron Brooks and Amar’e Stoudemire on minimum deals so they can try and chase a ring before they retire.
Starters:
PG Chris Paul
SG Aaron Afflalo
SF Loul Deng
PF Anthony Davis
C Alexis Ajinca
Backups:
PG Aaron Brooks
SG Jamal Crawford
SF Quincy Pondexter
PF Ryan Anderson
C Amar’e Stoudemire
Not bad huh? This Clippers core is looking less and less likely to win a title and the odds of them blowing it up and trading away both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul (who are both free agents in 2017) could increase sooner than we think.
The Pelicans would be in the room when it happens, and they would be able to make a generous offer. Provided they do get CP3, veterans would be lining up to take pay-cuts and play with those two superstars.
At this point it’s a pipe dream. Still, if there’s one thing the modern NBA has taught me it’s that you should never underestimate how quickly a team can crumble and be auctioned off to the highest bidder in a moments notice.