Can New Orleans Pelicans Guard Jrue Holiday be AD’s Robin?
New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday has emerged this season. His elite new level of play begs and clear and simple question; is he good enough to be the Robin to Anthony Davis’ Batman?
Go down the list. Google “past NBA champions” and take a look at their rosters. What becomes abundantly clear is that you truly cannot win a title without at least one top five player. What that means is that roughly 25 teams in the league each year are completely out of the running, and only those with an ELITE superstar can truly contend.
There are counter examples to this cold hard fact of NBA life, but they are few and far between.
The Spurs in 2014 didn’t have one top five player, but they one of the greatest coaches ever, 15 years of chemistry, and one of the most alarmingly deep and flexible rosters in history as well as a collection of top 10-15th-ish players who all bought in completely to the system.
The 2004 Pistons, and maybe the 2008 Celtics are the only other examples which even approach the idea of refuting this fact. In the past 50 years of NBA history, the idea of winning a title without a top five player has been overcome two, maybe three times in total.
Here comes the good news, the Pelicans already have that guy!
Though Davis is experiencing a slight learning curve this season, he is absolutely capable of being the best player on a championship team in his prime.
Here’s the second fact NBA history has made clear. One guy cannot do it alone, and for each “Batman” (the top five player), there needs to also be a “Robin” who can help him make it to the promised land.
The only player in NBA history who has ever won a title by himself is Hakeem Olajuwon. He is the only example of a superstar leading his team to a title without a true Robin, and he did it in the years Jordan was retired and he hit his absolute apex. Tim Duncan in 2003 and Dirk Nowitzki in 2011 could maybe be considered, but again, that’s 2-3 examples at most in 50 years of history and they are stretches at best.
So, what does this mean?
It means AD is our Batman, that area is covered. The question now is if Jrue Holiday can approach the level of ’14 Klay Thompson, ’13 Dwayne Wade, ’10 Pau Gasol, 08′ Kevin Garnet, ’88 Joe Dumars and a bunch of other players who were there to help their “Batmen” win an NBA title.
If I am able to prove Jrue Holiday and Davis are at that level, then it’s only a matter of ironing out the details until the Pelicans are contending for a title.
Now, let’s take a look at the statistical output of former “Robins” as opposed to the statistical output of Jrue Holiday this season. We will compare these players per 36 minutes played, to get a fair and even sense of how much they produced.
Going back to 1983, I included the “Robins” or simply the 2nd best player of each title team. If a year is skipped, it’s because I felt there wasn’t a true Robin.
The absence of a Robin could exist for a few reasons.
- The Robin was their own superstar (Kobe, Pippen, Kareem)
- The Robin wasn’t clear, or there were 3-4 co-Robins (2011 Mavs, 2003 Spurs, 2014 Spurs)
- The Superstar did it on their own (’94/’95 Hakeem, to a lesser extent 2011 Mavs and 2003 Spurs).
What I’m saying is that this calculation is arbitrary. The issue of calculating how good a “Robin” is isn’t black or white, but rather grey. Here’s my best attempt at finding out how good Jrue would need to be to reach that level.
Listed below is any player who could be considered a “Robin” from 2015-1983, and their statistical output during that season.
Now, let’s calculate exactly how much production this is on average. To do this, I’m going to take all of these players stat-lines, and merge them into one hybrid prototype.
Time to discuss the results.
The hybrid-generic “Robin” is a player who averages 20.1 points a game, grabs 6.7 rebounds, dishes out 4.1 assists, with a cumulative points rebounds and assists total of 30.9.
He also steals the ball 1.2 times per game and blocks one shot per game while shooting 51% from the floor and retaining a PER rating of 21.6.
The first thing to note, is that in reality these players usually all scored about 20 points a game while getting 7-9 rebounds OR assists, rather than an average of both.
Now on to Jrue.
If you believe his production this season is truly reflective of his level of talent, he is fundamentally the definition of a Robin level player. Going into the specifics, he actually produces more than the average Robin in many categories, despite sacrificing some efficiency at the cost of about 2.0 extra points/rebounds/assists per game.
So what does this mean?
It means we are 2/3rd of the way there. If Jrue is as good as he has been this season, it’s only a matter of smoothing the edges and giving him and AD a strong supporting cast with capable role players, defenders, and shooters.
Despite slightly more production, Jrue did shoot 6% worse from the floor than the average Robin. Odds are, with a good supporting cast of even average offensive players (or anyone besides Norris Cole, Dante Cunningham, Alonzo Gee and Omer Asik), his efficiency could make that 6% leap to the level comparable players achieved.
For a long time, Pelicans fans have agreed AD could be a 1st option. Regardless, most were worried we would never find him a partner in crime, and Davis’ career in New Orleans would bare a striking resemblance to LeBron’s early years in Cleveland.
Jrue was considered a solid 3rd or 4th option, but his ’14 and ’15 seasons weren’t good enough to be considered a true 2nd option. Most of us agreed that to one day compete for a title, we needed a guy to slot between them in the team hierarchy.
This year, Jrue turned that notion on it’s head. Make no mistake, he has taken the leap and is now fully capable of contending right by AD’s side.
Like I said, now it’s just a matter of sorting out the details.
