How far can the New Orleans Pelicans fall in the draft?
This season has been major disappointment. For many Pelicans fans, the draft is the only light at the end of the tunnel.
If the season ended today, the Pelicans would have the 6th best odds in the 2016 draft. With only two games left, it is in their best interest to try and secure that position and avoid the possibility of falling farther behind.
Due to the complexities of tie-breaker rules, it is now impossible that the Pelicans get the 5th pick in the draft. As it stands, they will either get the 6th best odds, or odds which are far worse.
The two competitors are the Knicks and the Kings. Each with exactly two more wins than losses over the Pelicans, and each with exactly two games left. If the Pelicans win both of their remaining games (unlikely but not impossible) and either of those two teams lose them, the Pelicans could be looking at the 7th or even 8th pick in the draft instead.
The Kings remaining schedule
The Kings two remaining games are against the Suns and the Rockets. It is very unlikely the Kings will beat the Rockets in their final game, so it is imperative for the Pelicans’ draft odds that the Kings beat the Phoenix Suns in their next game.
So far this season, the Kings have led the Suns in their season series 2-1. The bad news is that both teams have defended their home floor. The next game they play on the 11th is on the Suns home-court, following their rousing win against the Pelicans this weekend.
If the Suns retain their momentum and even their season series 2-2 on their home-court, things could get dicey for the Pelicans. The Rockets have led their series against the Kings 2-1 as well this season, so it’s unlikely the Kings can pull off a win against Houston.
The Knicks remaining schedule
As you are reading this (or maybe you’ve caught it later) the Knicks are playing the Toronto Raptors.
If they beat the Raptors (very unlikely), it’s all over for them and the Pelicans can be secure in knowing they are either landing the 6th or 7th pick in the draft.
If they lose to the Raptors (very likely) the Pelicans might start sweating. After the Raptors the Knicks play the Pacers, who they have also lost to this season every time they’ve played.
While the Kings are probably 50/50 when it comes to losing their next two games, the Knicks are more like 80/20. It’s very unlikely they will beat the 2nd seeded Raptors, or the Paul George led Pacers.
The Pelicans remaining schedule
If you’re getting nervous, remember that the Knicks and Kings can lose all their remaining games and still not pass the Pelicans as long as the Pelicans only win one game or less over their next two.
The Pelicans’ upcoming game is against the Chicago Bulls. Luckily, the Bulls have beaten the Pelicans in all three of their last three contests, and are a hungry .500 team looking to finish the season strong. It’s unlikely the Pelicans will be able to beat them, especially since it’s in both their best interests for the Bulls to come out victorious.
The Pelicans final game is against the Minnesota Timberwolves. This season, they have led their series against the Wolves 2-1, through Anthony Davis has played in most of those games.
Without him and the plethora of other players who’ve been shut down, it’s hard to see them losing to a hungry young Wolves team who just beat the 71-9 Golden State Warriors this past week.
In conclusion, don’t get too nervous. It’s possible that the Knicks and Kings will lose both their remaining games, but even so the Pelicans likely won’t win more than one of their own (if any).
Pelicans fans, it’s looking like the 6th pick is inevitably going to be yours.