Welcome to AD week here at Pelican Debrief. This week, our work will focus on the league’s most peculiar specimen and one of its greatest players, Anthony Davis.
There is seemingly no end to the roles in which Anthony Davis can fit. But how will the coaching staff use the shape of the rotation to maximize his gifts?
Of Anthony Davis’ ten most frequent five man lineup combinations from last season, there are exactly zero in which the other four members are players still on the team’s roster. It’s safe to call what happened this offseason a shakeup, and this statistic shows it well. The richter scale knows no number or word to describe the magnitude of this summer’s tumult in New Orleans.
That being said, the dude has to play next to someone this season, and the front office has done well to put ideal fits next to him. We know the names by now: Solomon Hill, Terrence Jones, E’Twaun Moore, Langston Galloway, and the draftees Buddy Hield and Cheick Diallo. Hoping – no, praying – that Jrue Holiday can continue his good health into this season, two pieces of the puzzle are pretty ironed in. Omer Asik figures to start and get at least a token twenty minutes as the only other reliable traditional big man on the roster in another attempt to let him earn his contract.
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Past those two and AD, though, there’s a lot of grey. Will Dante Cunningham return to the rotation with so much overlap created when Solomon Hill was signed? How will Alvin Gentry juggle Holiday, Moore, Galloway, and Tim Frazier at the guard spots? Will Tyreke Evans and Alexis Ajinca play much at all? And what about when Quincy Pondexter returns?
Let’s make peace with our inhibition and concern; etching it onto paper and thinking it out clearly can give us better foresight into exactly how this rotation will work. There are worse problems to have than 15 players who are all capable of contributing. I’ll try to break down the AD-centric lineups I see as both the most productive, as well as the most common, by categorizing them based on situation:
THE STARTERS
Jrue Holiday, Buddy Hield, Solomon Hill, Anthony Davis, Omer Asik
I’ll officially go on record here as siding with the Buddy Hield stans as far as his startership is concerned. He fits (like all players of his ilk) better as a floor-spacer next to starters than in the wilderness that is bench minutes in NBA games. Kyle Korver and JJ Redick come to mind as examples. Their value is depleted immediately when they’re the best players on the floor, and defenses can key into their patterns and inefficiencies more specifically. Hield should start.
Solomon Hill is probably going to be most valuable as a stretch four in those minutes where he can be that guy in small lineups, but for now, he’s the best option to start at the three. His being around these players injects more of what I see being this lineup’s best attribute: intelligence. We may have stopped dreaming about Omer Asik as any version of Andrew Bogut, but he’s still a veteran in the league, and can do basic big man things well (setting screens, moving his defender according to the set, rebounding). Holiday-Davis pick and rolls are going to be the focal point of any Gentry offense, and this lineup at least puts players around that who can operate comfortable when transitioning into plans B or C.
If E’Twaun Moore does end up nabbing the second starting spot at guard, expect some interesting stuff to happen between he and Holiday. They are both similar players, nice ball-handlers, and capable shooters. There are endless possibilities both on- and off-ball if those two players are on the court involved in the offense, or even as decoys.
DAVIS AT THE 5
Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Solomon Hill, Dante Cunningham, Anthony Davis
If I’m not out here for Cunningham, I’m afraid no one will be. He really fits into what this team has become, and I have more faith in him immediately being able to defend bigger guys in these experimental small lineups than I do in Hill. It’s going to be unchartered territory for anyone, but we’ve already seen Cunningham fill this role. He has to be out there to start the season.
Also, who the hell else is going to play small forward if only one of Hill and Cunningham is on the court? Until Evans or Pondexter come back, it seems both of these guys are going to be heavily involved in any small ball minutes. That’s fine. They can both shoot well enough to hold their defenders and let Holiday and Moore go wild in direct action with Davis.
This lineup also has pretty legitimate defensive potential. The only way you can get away with Davis playing at the five defensively, at least until he proves he can handle it, is to surround him with great defenders capable of funnelling the opposing offense toward AD’s rim protection and allowing him to read the half court like a free safety under the rim. Jrue, Moore, Hill, and Cunningham are four of the best defenders on the team, but offer no mitigating drop-off on offense.
As far as other similar options go, I like putting Frazier in lineups like this where he can be hidden on D and go wild on offense. If he’s running the show, the team is better suited to play fast, and that can be valuable for stretches. It’s definitely not going to happen with Asik or Ajinca on the court, so you have to take advantage where you can. Another real possibility is putting Hield in for Cunningham, and running something like Jrue-Moore-Hield-Hill-Davis. That has less defensive potential, but more lethal spacing and shooting. It’s an option, but one that requires real development from Hield to work over long stretches.
LET’S GET EXPERIMENTAL
Tim Frazier, Langston Galloway, Solomon Hill, Terrence Jones, Anthony Davis
This exercise makes it abundantly clear that the Pelicans are in dire need of a return to form from one of Pondexter or Evans. Solomon Hill can’t play the three in every lineup, and Cunningham shouldn’t be there too often. Alonzo Gee should stay on the bench if the roster is healthy. But the quickness and versatility of a lineup like this is undeniable, even with Hill.
The uncountable combinations of pick and roll plays between Frazier, Galloway, Jones, and AD are so exciting. Hill greases all of the gears by being trustworthy enough to flip the court around with his passing or make something out of nothing if a breakdown occurs. Jones and AD are undoubtedly going to get many chances early in the season to prove that they can work together. Something like this, where they can play off of each other with guys around them capable of setting them up, is perfect.
Jrue makes any of these lineups better, but in minutes where he has to hit the bench, I like Galloway as a defensive replacement more than Moore or Frazier. He can be something of a DH on this team in matchups where his aggressive brand of 3-and-D plus ball-handling are needed.
Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Langston Galloway, Solomon Hill, Anthony Davis
In figuring out the minutes balance for the backcourt this season, Gentry ought to (and most likely will) trot out three guard lineups from time to time. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of length among this group. Jrue and Moore are somehow the tallest and longest guys among them, but Galloway plays bigger than his size, and the switching potential of a Hill/Davis frontcourt pairing makes all of that smoother in terms of possible mismatches for an opponent to capitalize on.
The shooting and playmaking here would be great, and it really feels like a lineup that could work against the right matchup.
Next: This is the season for AD's defensive leap
To summarize, there’s no reason to worry about the shape of the rotation this year, as long as Anthony Davis is around. The starting lineup is set in stone outside of the one slot. Holiday and Davis will be a big part of any successful group; their defensive prowess and Davis’ added bulk make the lives of the guys around them a lot easier. Their pick and roll play on the other end could become the stable foundation of a top ten offense, assuming health. These are also only imaginings of what the best situations for Davis might be. It’s basketball; everything is dependent on chemistry, efficiency, and health.
There is enough depth to overcome injuries to the secondary players. Any large scale changes in the rotation will be a result of impressive play from an unexpected source. Every guy can do a lot of things well. The foundation has settled in, and the stars are healthy.