Six losses in six games, and a frustrated superstar. November hasn’t gone well for the New Orleans Pelicans, but there’s evidence that a winning team is in here somewhere.
After falling to 0-6 on the season, some facets of the New Orleans Pelicans season are beginning to come into shape. I wrote about the troubling defense in the paint in yesterday’s Phoenix Suns Game Preview, and noted that while the Pelicans are in the top half of the league in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, they cede points in the paint very easily, and rebound poorly. Call that the Paint Problem.
If that’s the alliterative title for the down-low worries of the Pels, what do we call the offensive struggles? Overflowing with AD? In his opening night duel with the Denver Nuggets, Anthony Davis posted a Usage Rate of 44.5%. That’s an astoundingly high number for a team coming off an entire training camp where they had the opportunity to get into shape and gain chemistry.
Since then, he’s been pulled back down to the atmosphere, clocking in at a 32.5% rate, good for fourth in the league among qualified players (on pace to play 70 games or reach statistical milestones, per Real GM). That would explode past his personal high last year of 29.6. Even considering the Pelicans play at the fourth-fasted pace in the league, here’s where Davis ranks among his peers in several other major statistical categories through five games:
Two-point attempts per game: 20.6, SECOND
Free-throw attempts per game: 12.4, SECOND
Minutes per game: 37.2, SIXTH
Offensive Rating: 109, ONE FIFTY-EIGHTH
Basically, he’s been among the most high-volume players in the league, and among the most inefficient. We’ve lauded Davis early on for pulling up whenever he has an inch of advantage or a split-second of room, but it’s been a recipe for six losses and some uncomfortable offensive showings (the San Antonio and Phoenix games stand out). The numbers show the Pelicans’ defense to be above-average, and their offense to be pulling them down, despite a different message being shown in games. Something’s gotta give.
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From this view, it looks like the Pelicans are getting more comfortable within the offense. Tim Frazier is an expert at creating room, and mostly makes the right choice of what to do with that space (driving for himself, sucking the defense inward and dishing, shooting a jumper). E’Twaun Moore is like a change of pace running back– the Darren Sproles of the NBA. The role players are fitting in, and Buddy Hield is getting more freedom and opportunity.
Under Alvin Gentry, talented offensive players are going to be unlocked. The Phoenix game was finally the time to celebrate the coming out of Terrence Jones, which saw him take advantage of spot starting duties and post a 19 point, 7 rebound, 6 assist, 4 block game that looks like a lot like the lines Davis has been putting up all season. He was comfortable shooting inside or out, and that confidence bled into all the other aspects of the game.
Signs are pointing up for the offense as a whole, by way of the role players.
To take the burden off of Anthony Davis on the offensive end is to increase his potency on defense. Advanced metrics like Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM), which quantify an individual’s defensive impact on a per-possession basis or as an accumulation of his box score stats, grade Davis as having been one of the league’s best defenders through five games.
He is first in Defensive Win Shares, with 0.5 already accumulated through five games, on a team that of course has not actually won a game yet. He is around the top ten in DBPM, posting a 4.3 mark that would be the highest of his career by far over a full season. He is the only big man besides Draymond Green to be in the top ten in steals through five games. Finally, he is leading the league in blocks per game. It may not look like it, but Anthony Davis has had a positive impact on the Pelicans’ defense.
Must Read: Player Grades for the home loss to Phoenix
Zero wins in six games is a depressing result, especially considering the last three games have been against similar or worse competition. But if your path to success is to decrease the load on your star player, you’re in a good spot as a team. If the role players can continue to coalesce into a supporting unit on offense and Davis can dig into a truly impactful season as a defender, the Pelicans will improve.
*All stats in this piece are provided from Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.