Jrue Holiday is eligible for a five year, $176 million deal with New Orleans, or a four year, $130 million free agent contract. How much of that do you think he will likely earn this summer?
I expect Holiday to sign a five year deal with the Pelicans worth in the neighborhood of $125 million dollars. He will turn down higher amounts with other teams to have an opportunity to play with his brother, whom I expect New Orleans to sign in free agency, and to give himself the best chance at reaching multiple upcoming postseasons.
Unfortunately, I see Dell bidding against himself again and overpaying a slightly above average starting point guard like a top eight point guard — especially when I see much of our play making coming from DeMarcus Cousins at the elbow and in transition this coming season. However, Jrue’s ability to switch really does unlock Darren Erman’s defensive scheme, which may be worth the overpay.
I genuinely hope no team is thinking of sending a max offer Holiday’s way (sorry Jrue). Holiday is an above average player who any team should be happy to have… for the right price. Timing will impact the dollar amount of the deal.
If one of the other free agent point guards in Holiday’s tier (Hill and Teague) can net a larger payday than anticipated, than expect Holiday to do the same. The Pelicans should sign Holiday quickly to help avoid overpaying.
Assuming Holiday wants to stay with the Pelicans and vice versa, he will sign a deal in the neighborhood of five years, $130 million. If he chooses to sign elsewhere I expect him to sign a deal around four years $110 million.
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I think the Jrue will ask for all of that to stay in NOLA. I think it’s too much to pay a guy of his caliber but what are the alternatives?
He will merit the max of his contract, due to how coveted point guards are in this current NBA. If Jrue gets anything less of $125 million, it would be a major surprise this offseason. It is what makes it so tough for the Pelicans, who are currently low on available money in free agency. Jrue knows what he can earn. He will likely ask for and get that amount.
The current climate of point guards, and the difficulty of finding a legit two-way player at that position makes this easy. Mike Conley’s contract last year showed what’s possible. Not saying Jrue’s worth as much, but at his relatively young age somebody is going to offer him the max or something fairly close.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Jrue decides to sign a shorter deal, but anything under 30 million a year would seem to be a surprise. He’s been underpaid by the standard of contracts currently given in the NBA Don’t expect any type of “hometown discount” here.
If the front office doesn’t foresee a substantial uptick in Holiday’s offensive production and views him primarily as an off-guard, then it’s highly unlikely that Jrue Holiday receives the 5-year max or even a 4-year deal to return.
Additionally, there are other options on the market this year who would either (1) be more qualified for a maximum deal, such as Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul or even George Hill or (2) valued at about 4 years/$80 mil, like Patty Mills, which create additional flexibility for wings & sustainable bench scoring.
However, in comparison to some of his other upcoming free agent counterparts, Jrue has youth on his side (at age 27). Unless the Pelicans luck out in the draft lottery, then I suspect that Jrue Holiday will return to New Orleans for 2017-18, and beyond, on a 5-year deal with about 90-93% of the maximum available money.