Predicting the outcome of anything is usually a venture into the ridiculous. Even if correct, most aren’t accurate on the path that leads to the often clumsily predicted outcome. There are simply too many variables when discussing the win total of a team not yet complete, in a season that has not yet begun. Injuries, team dramas, botched calls, and the ever-growing possibility of a complete and utter worldwide disaster make predicting something months in advance essentially impossible.
There are simply too many variables when discussing something such as, the win total of a team not yet complete, in a season that has not yet begun. Injuries, team dramas, botched calls, and the ever-growing possibility of a complete and utter worldwide disaster make predicting something months in advance essentially impossible.
Alas, this season is absolutely crucial, so, it is time to take a jaunt through the ridiculous in an attempt to stumble upon a somewhat accurate prediction.
To start, the SportsBook Review has the New Orleans Pelicans tied with the Nuggets for the 7th/8th best chance to win the Western Conference.
Over the last five years, the 7th/8th seed in the Western Conference has won 45.1 games on average.
That’s good! That should be enough to make the playoffs since it only took about 42 wins over the last two years. But, in an attempt to be deadly accurate, there is more to dig through.
Win shares are a statistic that is supposed to represent how much a single player contributed to winning a basketball game.
Last year, the accumulation of win shares on the Pelicans roster equaled 36.3 wins, they won 34 games. So, averaging out the career win shares of each Pelicans player may equal a reasonable number of games won. Some players may have career years while others have terrible ones but this is what the Pelicans season would look like if every player had an average year for them.
When adding up all of their individual career averages, it equaled out to 35.44 wins.
Not as good.
If you add in the injured Solomon Hill, in hopes that he will get some PT, the win total boosts up to 37.61. Better, but still not enough and it’s highly unlikely Hill plays enough games to affect the win total in a major way.
Finally, the NBA is dominated by superstars and the Pelicans have two. They have two that should both average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game next season. Since the NBA/ABA merger, only four teams have had two players average 20/10.
The 1998 San Antonio Spurs (56 wins), the 1985 Houston Rockets (48 wins), the 1993 Charlotte Hornets (44 wins), and the 1986 Philadelphia 76ers (54 wins). All would be excellent seasons for this team and when averaged, equal 50.5 wins per year.
An outstanding season and one every single person in New Orleans would be excited about. Now, averaging the expected win totals from each of these convoluted theories gives the New Orleans Pelicans an expected win total of 43.68, 44 with the help of rounding.
Next: Player Breakdowns: Cheick Diallo, The Project
By using advanced statistics, aggressively accurate gamblers, and historical norms, this is the expected number of wins for the New Orleans Pelicans next season. It’s not a perfect system but it never is.