Jrue Holiday trade rumors are becoming more prevalent as the NBA Playoffs roll on. New Orleans Pelicans fans are tired of dealing with the speculation of stars leaving the Smoothie King Center.
Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday were supposed to be the New Orleans Pelicans’ star pairing of the present and future. Davis trade rumors began during his rookie campaign, mostly emanating from Boston. Davis trade speculation was expected, even before his demand increased attention. While AD’s eventual departure shouldn’t be shocking, any Jrue Holiday trade would be totally unexpected, and very ill-advised were David Griffin to entertain the idea.
The case for trading Jrue Holiday revolves around a tanking mentality. New Orleans is not a tanking town, unless we are making level of drunkenness puns. Holiday is a born competitor and the type of winner that can champion a small market team with no championships. It is obvious now that Holiday is arguably the most beloved Pelican ever.
Holiday did not become the Pelicans People’s Champ over night, or by accident. In becoming the cornerstone of the Pelicans’ future, Holiday had to face rejection and other more serious hardships. Philadelphia deemed Jrue surplus to requirements for The Process and decided to move on.
Holiday was sent to New Orleans for Nerlens Noel and the Pelicans’ 2014 first-round draft pick. The Pelicans’ injury luck being what it is, Holiday suffered a season ending stress fracture halting his first season with the team in February.
The Pelicans stuck by Holiday, even while sticking it to Philadelphia for failures to disclose Holiday’s injury history. There were only reports of optimism, never any buyer’s remorse quotes from the organization.
The most dire of situations came up during the summer of 2016. Lauren Holiday, Jrue’s wife, was found to have a brain tumor that needed an operation. But the operation would have to wait. The Holiday’s were expecting a child.
The Benson family stood with Holiday, doing whatever they could to let Jrue know that he could take his time. Taking care of family is the only priority worth considering when your pregnant wife is found to need a brain operation. There is no way to be calmed or eased, but the Pelicans did their best to not pressure the Holidays. They were welcome members of the Pelicans family no matter when Jrue came back into the lineup.
The Holidays were here for the unfortunate events that affected Ryan Anderson. The Holiday family understands the this basketball team is about existing for more reasons than regular season wins. This city is embracing the Pelicans at a decent rate, but the fans can be fickle.
The Pelicans cannot go into a “Process” without some principles. Griffin said in his opening press conference remarks that Jrue was the type of player he wanted to help build this franchise into a respectable contender.
The Nola.com headline said it best. “Jrue Holiday was steadying force during Pelicans’ inconsistent season.” Holiday also expressed a desire to play with Davis again, wearing Pelicans jerseys.
"“I’m excited to be here at the end of the day,” Holiday said. “Whatever that title may be. If I’m here, I’ll do the same thing I’ve been doing which trying to win every game and leave it all on the court and play as hard as I can…It’s been six years that I’ve got to play with Anthony, hopefully I see him in a Pelicans jersey next year.”"
It’s been easy to cheer for Jrue Holiday throughout his career. A few more years in New Orleans would likely mean a Holiday jersey number retirement ceremony at the Smoothie King Center. Strictly on fan emotion, Holiday is the most valued player New Orleans has ever had. The Chris Paul Era always had a corporate feel, George Shinn and vetoed trades be damned.
The Jrue Holiday Era ending this summer would cost this team more than fans. All the goodwill and political capital of the David Griffin hiring would be spent if Holiday was traded away.
Any Holiday trade would signal to fans to expect a longer rebuilding process. The remaining Pelicans fans would have more of an “Oh yeah? Prove it” attitude towards the organization’s new direction.
Griffin is smarter than most. He should be wary of outsmarting himself in gauging the fans’ likely reactions to starting from scratch without Holiday to lead the new effort.
Is Jrue Holiday worth his contract? Who else could provide the same value for the New Orleans Pelicans franchise going forward?
While emotional connections and sentimental values do have their place in some decisions, finances are cold. Financial values have to be analysed without emotional connections. Emotionally, Holiday is the most valuable current Pelicans.
Financially, Jrue has such value that any trade haul would have to exceed whatever Davis brought back to New Orleans. Anthony Davis has one year left and has shown his disgruntled Looney Tunes-styled cards. Holiday has multiple seasons left on his contract.
Jrue has also been nothing but enthusiastic about the team’s future in interviews, and would be harder to replace in the lineup than Davis. The city has embraced Holiday in a way most NBA players will never experience. Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Jrue Holiday are in rare air when is comes to fan support, but let’s not digress. With little emotion, let’s look at the finances.
Jrue Holiday is on contract through the end of the 2021-2022 season. He is due $26.7 million in 2019-2020, only $25.976 million the next season, and has a $26.9 million player option the last year of the deal. Holiday had the leverage to demand the maximum allowed salary, stretching $131 million over five years. The Pelicans were going all in on the #DoItBig era, so retaining Holiday was critical.
Holiday is the 24th highest paid NBA player according to Business Insider. Basketball Reference has Jrue at 20th in overall guaranteed money from this season forward, and the 18th highest paid this season. The list of higher paid guys includes a list of stars, aging players on big deals, and “potential” being paid in the present.
Let’s divide the players and see where Holiday stands. Making any NBA tiers of comparison brings some emotion back into the argument, but the comparisons are generalized enough for the financial premise. Comparing Holiday’s cap hit, usage, age, and other variables to the players paid more than him shows that Jrue is probably the best possible option for the Pelicans in the near future.
Some players are almost bigger than the game. Any trade where your team receives an MVP candidate in their prime must be seriously considered. However, no one expects LeBron James (4 years/$153.3m) to ask out of Los Angeles soon. Klutch Sports created this mess to break up New Orleans, not join up here.
James Harden (4 years/$118.m) is not bigger than the game, but has inspired plenty of comments claiming he has broken it. Any trade where Holiday and Harden swapped teams would break the league fax machine. Sure, almost any plausible Harden/Holiday swap that met trade requirements would be tough to turn down. Same goes for Steph Curry (5 years/$201.2m).
Kevin Durant (2 years/$61.5 million) will be a free agent this summer. The Pelicans are splurging on an expanded front office, but trips to the Hamptons would be burning money for a burner account comment at best.
The Pelicans are not looking to waste money on a vanity project. The Warriors have a championship foundation whereas the Pelicans are trying to build one. Jrue Holiday is invaluable to what Griffin is crafting in New Orleans. If Griffin entertains any trade for Holiday, it must be for a package greater than or equal to any Davis haul.
Holiday has won our hearts, and the head sees the numbers suggest a winning contract situation for both sides. Trading Holiday risks not only losing games, but also fans and a favorable contract.
What type of value is found at the price it cost the New Orleans Pelicans to retain Jrue Holiday?
Frontcourt players on bigger deals
The first group to section away is the bigs. Anthony Davis is on this list, but his future with the team is an unknown variable. Possible trades could change the financial equation, but it’s doubtful that trade would change Holiday’s perception here much.
Al Horford (4 years/$113.3m), Paul Millsap (2 years/$61m), Hassan Whiteside (4 years/$98.4m), Andre Drummond (5 years/$127.2m), and Blake Griffin (5 years/$171.2m) are older and paid more than Holiday. The NBA is evolving away from traditional on-the-block bigs like Drummond and Whiteside. Griffin is hobbled yet again. Horford would be serviceable to the Pelicans for a bridge year, then likely traded.
Joel Embiid (5 years/$147.7m) has an injury history. There is no trusting Philadelphia. The 76ers had to pay New Orleans millions for hiding information during the Holiday trade. Embiid has the potential to develop into a great modern big man, but he also has an injury history.
Add Paul George (3 years/$100m) to the injury history list while we’re at it. Andrew Wiggins (4 years/$147.7m) also makes more than Jrue and is worth infinitely less to his team. Otto Porter (4 years/$106.5m) has done little to show he can lead Washington, or any franchise, since teammate John Wall’s injury before Porter got shipped to the Bulls.
Gordon Hayward (4 years/$127.8m) is still yet to find his pre-injury peak form. He is also a possible candidate to be included in the Davis trade or some other Boston Celtics reshuffling to keep an Irving-Davis future possible. Holiday for Hayward straight up is a trade the Griffin-led Pelicans would decline with a hardy laugh.
Pricier backcourt options
John Wall (4 years/$171m) is an acceptable first name mentioned here. Bradley Beal (5 years/$127.2m) would be a lateral move at best, both in salary cap flexibility and on court production.
Since the emotions are supposed to be ignored, use injury history and age to add Chris Paul (4 years/$159.7m) to this list. Continuing, Mike Conley (5 years/$152.6m) has reached his expiration date in Memphis, and most NBA starting lineups. Conley could be a free agent next summer, possibly worth one of the Pelicans’ roster exceptions.
CJ McCollum (4 years/$106.6m) and Damian Lillard (5 years/$140m) fans and folks prone to playing devil’s advocate have a couple arguments, maybe. Last year’s playoffs showed why Holiday deserved more recognition, especially for those lauding the Portland pair. This year’s playoffs are convincing many that Russell Westbrook (5 years, $206.8 m) should have his playing style and hollow triple-doubles reexamined.
DeMar DeRozan (5 years/$139m) and Kyle Lowry (3 years/$100m) could not lead the Raptors to the Finals, but now they have a chance to meet in one. (What? You doubting Popovich? Yea, I know. Okay.)
The few cheaper stars
Bigs on slightly smaller salaries this season include Nikola Jokic (5 years/$142m), Steven Adams (4 years/$100M), and Kevin Love (4 years/$120M), but Love’s four year extension does not even start until next season.
Jimmy Butler ($20m) and Kyrie Irving ($20m) are currently cheaper but will both be free agents this summer and will be seeking max salaries exceeding Holiday’s cap hit. Devin Booker is currently cheaper but will cost almost ten million more (5 years/$168m) than Holiday once his extension kicks in.
Clearly, Holiday’s contract is a great value when you consider the short list of comparable players currently on cheaper deals.
In conclusion
Trades are tricky ordeals. Draft picks are great in theory, until the selection is actually made. Then that player with potential is too young to win in the playoffs. Once they make a playoff appearance, they ask for max contracts. That creates difficult restricted and regular free agency decisions. This causes salary crunches, especially for small market teams with luxury tax aversions.
Some players get more than they should while other settle for a fraction of their asking price. Just track the career contracts of Nerlens Noel, to bring the Jrue Holiday story full circle. The gambles of the unknown bring more risk than reward. Why take a chance when Jrue Holiday is a well-known, well-liked, well-priced NBA talent?
Go through the players mentioned above. How many would be a better value for the Pelicans going forward? Not many, and those rare few get to pick their destinations. None have picked New Orleans, or even expressed an interest. Jrue Holiday is the Pelicans’ best attraction to entice any free agents. He is also the most underappreciated talent on perhaps the most team friendly contract above $20 million.
Finding value in the contracts most responsible for earning victories is the best way to build a competitive team quickly. Only the worst teams actively seek to trade away healthy and happy stars on great contracts. Unless Griffin can acquire one of the NBA’s biggest stars, any trade sending Jrue Holiday away from the New Orleans Pelicans makes little sense. He’s meant too much to this city.