The Los Angeles Lakers were the reported preferred destination for Anthony Davis when he issued his trade demand. How might that trade work out for the New Orleans Pelicans three years from now?
The New Orleans Pelicans will likely select Zion Williamson with the first pick in the NBA Draft. Whether he is welcomed into the league as a supporting member of a contending Pelicans squad, or as the foundation to a rebuild, is up to Anthony Davis. If Davis stands firm on his trade demands, Zion’s NBA reality will be the latter.
Anthony Davis wants to go to the Los Angeles Lakers, and he could get his wish. The Lakers may be dysfunctional, but they do have the assets to make a substantial offer worth considering. That was not the case at the trade deadline.
The Lakers could offer the bulk of their young core as well as future draft picks. Picks have to turn into someone capable of playing minutes eventually. Depending on the draft spot, the value of the picks could vary drastically. There are several decent prospects being hyped, but no one like Zion is on the horizon. The mythical double draft is still three years away at best.
That’s how the trade packages should be analyzed. This isn’t about the prospect of a quick rebuild. Trading away Anthony Davis is an admission that the Pelicans do not expect to win a playoff series next year. An appearance would be greatly appreciated, but that’s the extent of next year’s expectations.
Zion’s second year would come with some elevated hopes. From the third year on, there will be expectations of All-Star games and playoff appearances for the remaining decade. If that assumption is agreeable, let’s look at what the Los Angeles Lakers trade haul would look like in three years.
The player with arguably the easiest career to project is Lonzo Ball. There is a reason he is included in every trade scenario the Lakers are mentioned in, no matter the other team. His funky shot mechanics can be tweaked. His passing vision comes so naturally, so instinctive. His ability to run an offense will keep him in the league, even if his shot barely improves. Ball’s floor is basically the new Rajon Rondo.
Ball will make $8,719,320 next year, with a club option for $11,003,782 in 2020. In year three, Ball will be a restricted free agent. With a rising salary cap, Ball could demand one of the higher fifth-year player salaries ever if he continues improving. In his last six games of the season, before his season-ending injury, Ball was dropping 13.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. With a decent volume and usage rate, Ball averaged 36 percent from three-point range during this good run of form.
Lonzo running a transition point, with Holiday slashing and Zion rumbling to the rim would be formidable. The half court set options are almost limitless, providing the Pelicans find at least one more shooter.
Josh Hart would also be a restricted free agent that same year. Hart’s cap numbers for the next two years are $1,934,160 and $3,491,159. As a 3-and-D prospect, Hart has not shown much promise in his first two years. The Pelicans could retain him as a cheaper version of Solomon Hill, but he might not be deserving of many more minutes. He would have to earn them over a likely #3 pick, among others.
Hart’s three-point shot accuracy actually went down from his rookie year mark. Digressing a little for a sophomore slump is acceptable. Going from 39% to 33% is slightly worrisome. Best case scenario he is more poor man’s Patrick Beverly than a bargain Solomon Hill.
Brandon Ingram would require a decision sooner than both Hart and Ball. He will be a restricted free agent in 2020. Ingram is due to earn $7,265,485 next season. His blood clotting concerns will linger, suppressing the value of his next contract. Still, Ingram could command a max level salary in a couple of years.
Like Lonzo Ball, Ingram was playing wonderfully before his season was cut short. In Ingram last two weeks of games, he averaged 27.8 points, 2.8 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game, shooting 53 percent from beyond the arch. That is unsustainable, but his 57 percent from the field could be possible with an extra transition dunk or alley-oop per game.
At 21, Ingram could be the best timeline fit for the Zion era, but would they fit on the court together? They both like to operate in the same spaces, and both like to have the ball more often than not. Zion and Ingram could form the new #DoItBig duo, but where would that leave Ball and Holiday, on a wing and in a corner?
The test drive of Kyle Kuzma would be relatively cheap. Kuzma is due $1,974,600 and $3,562,178 the next two seasons. His club option will surely be picked up, making him a restricted free agent after two years in New Orleans. Kuzma can operate from the block, elbow, or perimeter, much like Anthony Davis but not at quite the same volume of efficiency.
With Jrue Holiday and Zion both logging higher usage rates, Kuzma would not need to do his best Davis impersonation. He could build out his game to be tailored to making space for Zion where ever needed. Occasionally he might break out for another 40+ point game, but that would not be the expectation, even with three years more development.
Kuzma would have to work on his off-ball game to be worth a substantial investment. Weak rebounding power forwards who keep drifting to the perimeter have to possess a more consistent shot. They also have to be pair with a possibly paint clogging big, or risk being a bottom five rebounding team.
Kuzma’s defense needs major work as well. He is a liability when switched on to a decently quick ball handler, and averages less than a steal and block per game. Holiday and Williamson need space in the paint, not an anchor only covering cracks in Kuzma’s third option game.
Kuzma, Ingram, and Williamson would be a decent young core of big men. Kuzma would have to prove his worth as the glue guy, capable of working around the higher profile stars. Glue guys happy in a secondary role are a necessary part of any winning formula.
With the role players in mind, David Griffin should insist on Moritz Wagner being included in any trade. The first year big man showed some usefulness in certain situations and could grow into a valued bench big. He is only due $2,063,520 in 2019, $2,161,920 in 2020, and $3,893,618 in 2021. Less than $4 million for a possible third or fourth center would be highly valuable.
Trading Anthony Davis will be a shock to the franchise, no matter how expected. The trade haul cannot be judged on immediate reactions, but the reaction of Zion Williamson when he sees that roster his third year in the NBA. At its greatest potential, the Lakers offer could be the best David Griffin considers.
However, not every move will work out as great as the NBA Draft Lottery did for the Pelicans. This part of franchise building early in the Griffin era requires more than luck. Due diligence and thorough scouting will carry the day, and the will determine the Pelicans future with Zion. With a little bit of luck, that will bring more success than the Anthony Davis era in New Orleans, if Davis is traded at all.