The Brooklyn Nets are the team du-jour as a possible Anthony Davis trade destination. How might that trade work out for the New Orleans Pelicans three years from now?
The Brooklyn Nets could target Anthony Davis. Their offer to the New Orleans Pelicans has the potential to be one of most tempting. What would a trade package from the Nets mean for the Zion Williamson-led Pelicans a few years down the road?
No matter what, the likely first pick in the NBA Draft will need a couple of years to grow into his NBA life. Zion is unlike most hyped prospects before him, and in the best ways. However, like every other all-world talent, Williamson will have to take his lumps the first couple of seasons.
The New Orleans Pelicans can only expect to contend in Zion: Year One, if Anthony Davis remains in the Crescent City. If Davis continues to demand a trade, drafting Zion will mark the beginning of a hopefully quick rebuild.
The forthcoming assets from a Davis trade haul should jump start any Pelican rebuilding efforts. David Griffin will demand enough in return for Davis to ensure the Pelicans are competitive next season. They may not contend, but New Orleans should at least show some promising strides towards a playoff appearance.
The Brooklyn Nets would be expected to offer a healthy majority of their young prospects. The Nets’ run to the playoffs was one of the more encouraging stories of the past NBA season. The only possible hang up to any deal would be the Nets’ draft picks in the deal. There is no massively hyped transcendent star in the next few drafts that Brooklyn could help New Orleans end up with.
Also, Brooklyn just recovered from the last time they shipped a half-decade’s worth of draft picks away. This actually may give the Pelicans additional leverage to pry away another young Brooklyn playoff veteran. Remember, not every player in a trade necessarily has to fit the roster immediately. David Griffin and Trajan Langdon can always use extra bodies for the next trade move.
Brooklyn also might stick with a plan of creating max cap space to sign a couple of All-NBA talents. The Nets cannot create space for two max contracts unless they move Crabbe and pass on re-signing D’Angelo Russell.
Most All-NBA players get acclimated to the league in the first year, get comfortable the second year, and then make All-Star worthy headlines in their third year. With that in mind, let’s look at what the Brooklyn Nets’ trade offer for Davis would possibly look like in three years.
A quick rebuild is not as important as a proper rebuild. A team that is decent in year two, but has already reached its ceiling does the Pelicans little good in impressing Zion. Starting in his third year and going through his mid thirties, Zion can expect to be on a contending team.
A cynic might scoff at even expecting a playoff appearance. An optimist might assume that’s the most that could be expected. Any offer from Brooklyn comes with the added benefit of those Nets players having this past season’s experience. A young playoff core, traded away for a disgruntled star, might be the most positive influence for a young Zion Williamson.
First, let’s look at the best player the Nets could offer New Orleans.
Brooklyn’s All-Star
D’Angelo Russell (23) is a restricted free agent stuck in limbo once more. The Los Angeles Lakers gave up on Russell, and the Nets may want to move on from Russell for more established NBA stars.
Russell’s addition to any deal would require a sign and trade transaction. The sign and trade mechanism is one of the most complex and misunderstood sections of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.
The relevant explanation of Question 92 as it pertains to a Nets trade offer revolves around matching salaries.
Russell made just over $7 million this year and will be getting a substantial raise next season. His next contract could average over $20 million. Since the Nets would be signing Russell just to trade him, his full contract cap hit would not be used in the trade. In fact, only half would count in the event Russell signs for more than $16 million a year, which is very likely.
This is done so players do not game the system to force their way onto teams around/over the cap. It helps the Pelicans, because the Nets have to would have to add another player to a deal for salary purposes. Every extra asset helps.
Russell will receive a raise of more than 20%; he might get three times his old salary next season. Three years and sixty five million dollars is a reasonable rate to ask for an All-Star guard. In that case, only half of the new contract’s cap hit will be counted in a Davis trade. Russell’s contract could only be for three or four years in a sign and trade. The contract would have 4.5% increases each year.
Putting Russell’s 21 points and 7 assists next to Jrue Holiday would solve the Pelicans’ back court rotations. Frank Jackson and Elfrid Payton running the bench units would alleviate any load management worries.
Aaron Nelson will monitor usage heavily. There’s no need to risk unnecessary injury in a rebuilding year. A stable of ball handlers is needed to be competitive on a nightly basis. That is the goal for Zion’s developmental years. Russell, Holiday, Payton, and Jackson would ensure Zion has a creator to help at all times.
This series of articles we’re posting is looking at potential trade hauls three years out with the expectation that Zion will be ready to lead the team by then. Russell became an All-Star in his fourth season and could step into a young veteran leadership role in a couple years. His guidance and words of patient wisdom would serve Zion well.
The Lakers gave up on Russell, but he kept confidence in his game. The Nets reaped some rewards. The Pelicans will have to risk paying full market value but could see the greatest return on the Davis trade investment by accepting Russell.
But D’Lo isn’t the only Nets player that would have value for New Orleans. Let’s look at some others.
Replacing AD’s defense down low
Jarrett Allen (21) is a bargain with a lot of upside. He averaged a shade under 11 points and 8 rebounds this season. He is due only $2,376,840 in 2019-20 and would offer the paint defense and rebounding the Pelicans would need in AD’s absence. He also has a team option worth $3,909,902 for 2020-21.
It is easy to project him outperforming that cap hit, and he would be seeking a substantial raise in Zion’s third year. A pairing of Allen and Zion would be the best under-25 front court in the NBA. However, Allen will never stretch any spacing. He has made 11 of 60 three point attempts in two years.
He could take a step or two outside of the paint. Allen boast a 73% free throw percentage, so it’s possible he could extend his range a bit. Williamson and Holiday will give him plenty of easy lobs and dump offs. Developing a post move or baby hook for tense situations would make Allen as dependable a bucket as Julius Randle. The Pelicans would still have Jahlil Okafor as well.
Allen swatted 120 blocks, snatched 43 steals, and provided 110 assists last season. He had 103 turnovers, which averages to 1.3 per game. Anthony Davis averaged 2.0 per game, with 112 in only 56 games. Allen played in 80, proving plenty durable through the playoffs. He is of no risk of hitting a sophomore slump.
The huge role players with rising ceilings
Caris LeVert (24) – LeVert is a star wing in the making. In only 40 games, LeVert proved almost indispensable for a playoff contender. LeVert is due $2,625,718 in 2019-20. The Pelicans would then match almost any offer sheet presented to the restricted free agent.
LeVert does not get to the line much, where he shot under 70 percent. He averaged 12 shots in 26.6 minutes per game and put up13.7 points along with 3.8 rebounds. LeVert is still learning the nuances of the league as was dealing with a season interrupted by injury.
A full season of growth between Williamson and Holiday would be of great benefit. LeVert could prove a viable off side wing man to pair with Zion, or could be a sought after trade option a year into his new deal. LeVert is a piece to demand in any trade negotiations with the Nets. His age and next contract line up perfectly with the Pelicans for the next five years.
Spencer Dinwiddie (26) – Dinwiddie’s contract will cause quite the debate in several front offices, both now and in three years. The value of now versus the future decisions is a tough judgement call.
As for helping the New Orleans Pelicans on the court, Dinwiddie averaged 4.6, and 6.6 assists per game in the last two seasons. With more minutes in the Pelicans’ quicker offense, he could average at least five and perhaps a bit over seven. He did commit 2.2 and 1.6 turnovers a game as well, though his improvement is encouraging. With Jrue and Zion both demanding high usages rates, Dinwiddie should be able to average less than two TOs per game if he comes to town.
Those would be his only concerns. Take care of he ball just long enough to give it to Holiday or Williamson. On defense, he has the size (6’6″) to dominate smaller guards, yet he averages only 0.6 blocks and 0.3 steals per game. The concern then is if Dinwiddie is not gambling for steals, why does he commit 2.8 fouls per game? Holiday is harassing ALL-NBA guards into submission and only averages 2.2.
Every other guy the Pelicans could ask for
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (24) – Hollis-Jefferson is not under contract, but would be a decent bench option for the Pelicans moving forward. Hollis-Jefferson could be a sign and trade candidate as well. He had a $2.7 million cap hit this season, and probably would not count for much more in a trade. Hollis-Jefferson would slot into any minutes vacated should Frank Jackson or Elfrid Payton be dealt away.
Allen Crabbe (27) – Crabbe is due $18,500,000 next year, then he then becomes an unrestricted free agent. Crabbe is a likely candidate to be shipped to a third team. He serves little use to the New Orleans Pelicans’ rebuilding efforts. Crabbe has an adequate game, but the Pelicans need more than a high dollar expiring contract shooting guard offering less than ten points a game.
Holiday is the Pelicans’ two guard, and no backup should make over $18 million for the Pelicans next year. Crabbe only averaged one assist per game last season. He shot only 73.2% from the free throw line, and played only 43 games. The Pelicans should avoid starting the season with Crabbe on the roster, much less paying more to keep him around longer.
Crabbe might be the worst contract fit for the Pelicans in three years. Trading Davis for one year of Crabbe would be a poor decision. The New Orleans Pelicans need immediate value to be competitive soon but also pays dividends when Zion is of legal drinking age. Crabbe provides neither.
Joe Harris (27) – Harris was out of the league for a spell but fought his way back into being a respected contributor. Harris can stroke the three ball, hitting at a 47% clip this past season. Half of Harris’ shots come from behind the arc. He averaged 13.7 points per game, providing the spacing Russell and Dinwiddie needed.
He is due to earn only $7,670,000 next season, and the team would have early bird rights. Unless Harris develops into a star, New Orleans could expect to keep a productive Harris for a reasonable cost. Harris has room to grow, and could be flipped for a pick and younger player next year a the trade deadline.
Contenders pay a premium for 47% three point shooters. Harris has the potential to be a solid rotational player for a true contender. Both Toronto and Golden State could use him now in the Finals. After next season, Harris and New Orleans should start at three years for $30 million. Harris gives Zion plenty of space to grow into his potential.
Rodions Kurucs (21) – Kurucs is one of those cheap assets than serves a purpose beyond the scout team. His cap hit of only $1,699,236 negates a roster cap hold, giving David Griffin more options. Kurucs could battle with the team’s other wings not named Zion. He has the size to play at the power forward spot with Williamson at small forward.
His contract runs through June 2022, raising to $1,780,152 in 2021 and a $1,861,068 team option for the 2021-22 season. If Davis is traded, Griffin and Langdon should ask for every young asset available. Kurucs could prove far better than Christian Wood and more serviceable than Cheick Diallo.
The Nets gave Kurucs freedom to shoot. He averaged 20.8 minutes per game and found 7.1 shots, with 2.9 being three point attempts. He hit on 31% of those three pointers his rookie season. His 79% free throw average and 3.9 rebounds per game are also something to build on. The potential is there for Kurucs to be the cheapest version of what the Pelicans imagined from Ryan Anderson.
Treveon Graham (25) is due a paltry non-guaranteed $1,645,357 next season. He shot less than 30% from deep and isn’t of much use to either team after any Davis trade to Brooklyn. Shabazz Napier (27) does not fit the Pelicans’ plans, and would only be roster flotsam.
Dzanan Musa (20) has a contract that could be of use and a game that could use G-League refinement. The shooting guard is due $1,911,600 next season followed by two not fully guaranteed cap hits of $2,002,800 and $3,615,054. Musa only played in nine games and needs more time than the Pelicans can offer.
If the Brooklyn Nets truly do emerge as a contender for Anthony Davis, they actually have a ton of pieces with decent value they could ship back to the New Orleans Pelicans. If any other rumors related to this situation break soon, we’ll keep you in the loop at Pelican Debrief.