New Orleans Pelicans: Replacing the Raw Stats Lost

The New Orleans Pelicans have drastically overhauled the roster in the last couple of months. Replacing the raw stats of the outgoing players is paramount to playoff contention.

David Griffin has taken charge with purpose this off-season. The New Orleans Pelicans will look drastically different next season. Trading away Anthony Davis and drafting Zion Williamson were huge developments, but are just two of the many moves being made this summer.

Trading away Anthony Davis gutted a big portion of the New Orleans Pelicans raw stats. Davis provided elite production in his 33 minutes per game. Davis posted averages of 25.9 points, 12 rebounds, 3.9 assist, and 2.4 blocks per game last season.

The Pelicans leaned heavily on Davis, as his advanced stats show. Davis was among the leaders in all advanced metrics, posting a 29.5% usage rating. He posted stars numbers at on both sides of the court, with a 122 offensive rating and a 105 defensive rating.

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Anthony Davis departs for Los Angeles carrying his .597 true shooting percentage,  42.2% free throw rate, 27.5% defensive rebounding rate, 19% assist rate, and 6% block rate. There is some merit to Davis feeling he had to carry the team far too often when looking at advanced stats.

New Orleans does not need someone to replace Davis’ usage rate and true shooting percentages, however. The playoff standings need no advanced analytics, just sort by wins and losses. That is what matters.

Getting the wins necessary for a playoff appearance requires the New Orleans Pelicans to replace the basic stats. Points win games. Rebounds allow for possessions. Assists indicate good team play. Steals, blocks, turnovers, and fouls add up, giving coaches fits requiring a rotation change.

The New Orleans Pelicans have to replace not only Anthony Davis but the following players as well:

"Solomon Hill, Chieck Diallo, Stanley Johnson, Julius Randle, Ian Clark, Tim Frazier, Wesley Johnson, Andrew Harrison, Jason Smith, Nicola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton."

No decision has been made on Darius Miller or Dairis Bertans and the roster is filled. Their stats will be included as well. E’twaun Moore remains on the roster, and in a couple of rumors. His stats will not be included at this time.

Considering every player the Pelicans have decided not to bring back for next season, the team is left facing the following raw losses from the stat sheet. All numbers compiled using Basketball-Reference team page stats. 

Total Points lost: 6,020 – 64% of the Pelicans total

Total Rebounds lost: 2,723 – 70% of the Pelicans total

Total Assist lost: 1,398 – 63% of the Pelicans total

For the advanced stat types, let’s include two of the most popular. Stats with ‘Wins’ and ‘Effeciency’ fit this exercise perfectly.

Total Win Shares lost: 26.1 – Three players posted negative win share rates.

Total Player Efficiency Rating lost: 160.9

If not for Anthony Davis ending the season early through injury, those numbers would be even larger. The team was top heavy talent-wise, and a deep team is needed to make it to the shorten playoff rotations.

The New Orleans Pelicans only post 35 wins last season. The team shed a lot of production, and yet will be expected to win more than 40 games in Zion Williamson’s rookie season. That is a testament to the new front office, led by David Griffin.

David Griffin has totally remade the New Orleans Pelicans in the wake of Anthony Davis trade demand. Replacing a star is always difficult, but Zion Williamson has plenty of incoming help.

J.J. Redick is a historically excellent shooter. Derrick Favors is one of the most overlooked All-Stars ever. Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Josh Hart have all posted decent numbers while growing into their potential. And that just the starting five of off-season moves.

Another five players without NBA experience are being welcomed to New Orleans. European scouting efforts paid off, as the Pelicans convinced Euro-league star, Nicolo Melli, to join the team. Zion Williamson is an immediate starter.

He could be joined by fellow rookies Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Marcus Louzada Silva is likely to be stashed for a couple of seasons. Any summer league sensations will likely replace the mop-up minutes stats.

It is hard to predict stats for players without any NBA experience. Williamson will get plenty of run, and highlight stats. Let’s assume he holds his college averages and plays 75 games. Melli posted decent numbers, but the European game is far different from the American version. We will do the same for his stats, which should be attainable given his expected role.

Looking at the same stats, we can see how much the new NBA players are expected to chip in. Of the five NBA veterans, the Lakers trio should be expected to post career years across the board. However, let’s just look at their actual production. Injuries and medical issues happen and must be accounted for in the equation.

Total points gained: 6,359

Total rebounds gained: 2,422

Total assists gained: 1,229

With so many new players to the league, calculating advanced stats would be next to pointless. The fact is the Pelicans need the young veterans acquired from Los Angeles to have fully healthy, productive seasons to have a chance at the playoffs. The need the same from Zion Williamson and the rest of the top half of the roster.

The Pelicans added points to the roster though they subtracted an All-NBA talent. Getting buckets matters. Adding more quantity in top end quality is the easiest way to adding to the win totals. In doing so, the New Orleans Pelicans now matter in the NBA more than ever.