New Orleans Pelicans: Mapping a trip to the playoffs

I know, I get it, perhaps I’m getting a little too ahead of myself here. Next years marks a new era for the New Orleans Pelicans, but it’ll also mark this core’s first year with each other—so how could the playoffs be in reach?

The Western Conference is wide open, but it’s also extremely competitive. There will be no cakewalk to the 8th seed for the New Orleans Pelicans, nothing is given in the wild west. The roster at hand is young and inexperienced, there’s a good chance three out of the five starters entering next season will be under the age of 22-years-old.

It’ll take time for this team to get acclimated with each other, learn each other’s tendencies and what they like to do—the same applies to the coaching staff. Don’t be surprised if the team limps out the gate, especially if they’re forced to endure a five-game road trip in their first 10 games like they did last season.

Established veterans of the league aren’t going to take it easy on Zion Williamson, they’re going to show him what the big leagues are like, but he’ll get accustomed to it. As the season progresses, expect the Pelicans to find a rhythm and start gelling with each other.

Despite playing in a loaded conference last year, the team didn’t fare terribly against teams out west (23-29), they also held their own in their respected division (8-8). Where they fell apart was against teams out east (10-20), that’ll have to change if they want to host playoff games at the SKC next season.

Over the past 5 years, 8th seeds in the Western Conference averaged a total of 44 wins. It really depends on the atmosphere of the conference at the time. The problem for the Pelicans is that entering next season there are realistically 10-12 teams inner conference that could post an above .500 record.

But here’s the good news: the team is stacked with potential. Like I said they’re young, raw, still in their own maturation processes—but they have savvy veterans now to guide their paths. The additions of J.J. Redick and Derrick Favors will be instrumental to any success the team enjoys in the 2019/20 season.

Jrue Holiday—the de facto leader of the club—is one of the more established two-way threats in the league. Their coach, Alvin Gentry, has proven in the past that he can get a roster to overachieve pre-season expectations. He’ll have his hands full though trying to incorporate the right rotation and system around his personnel.

On paper, the Pelicans might have one of the more talented starting 5’s out west. Like I mentioned before, the team is young, they’re going to feed off the energy in the building. New Orleans went 19-22 at the SKC last year, expect a different story at the conclusion of this upcoming season.

This fanbase has illustrated in prior campaigns how ruckus, wild, and overall how detrimental they can be to the opposition. In the 07/08 season, the then-Hornets went 30-11 at home, in the 14/15 season they went 28-13, and in the 17/18 season, they went 24-17. Timely stops and runs will get the crowd involved, that’s where this core of youngsters are going to thrive.

Post-all-star break is where I expect the team to go on a run (bearing any marring injuries). It’s not out of the realm of possibility to believe this team can muster out a 5, or 6 game winning streak at home. The city of New Orleans will do their part, as evident by season ticket sales. The hype is mounting, the SKC is going to bring it.

If you’ve seen a playoff game in New Orleans on TV, you know how loud that crowd can get. It won’t be a playoff-like atmosphere for all 41 games, but they’re going to be excited and the players are going to give their best effort in protecting home court.

2019/20 Home record prediction: 27-14

The road can be grueling, it’s no stranger in sealing the fates of playoff hopefuls. To be successful in this league you have to be respectable away from your own home building. The Pelicans weren’t last season, going 14-27 in that regard. I’m not expecting them to go 27-14 like the Bucks or Warriors did last year—but try to linger around the .450 mark, all I ask.

They can’t afford to give up late November games to the likes of the New York Knicks or Washington Wizards on the road like last season. That’s where Gentry and the veterans need to assert themselves and set the tone of the game early, it’s a long 82-game regular season but you can’t afford any blown opportunities. Could be the difference in securing the 7th seed or falling to the 9th.

Speaking of, this Eastern Conference isn’t like the league of old, there are some serious contenders with aspirations of hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy in June. However, some may fall victim to treacherous west coast swings or be subject to horrid back-to-backs. If that’s the case, the Pelicans need to secure some splits against the higher seeded teams out east. It’s difficult but it’s also feasible.

Inner conference play could prove to be the difference maker next season, 13/15 teams in the west finished the 2018/19 season with above .500 records at home. The Pels will play 26 games on the road against western conference foes, chances are they may only grind out an 11-15 record, and that is under ideal conditions.

Which means they would have to finish with a 7-8 record on the road out east to bypass that 44-win median it requires to secure a berth in the round robin. We’ll see what this team is made of down the latter half of the year, they’re going to have to gut out and steal some games on the road.

2019-20 Road record prediction: 18-23

The playoffs would just be the cherry on top, it’s not necessarily a prerequisite to determine this team’s long term worth in the NBA. As I mentioned before, the first stretch of the season could very well be tumultuous for the team. Securing two home games at the SKC shouldn’t be the expectation, but it’s not exactly unrealistic either.

What do you guy’s think? Is this new roster capable of a 45-37 record? Will that record even get you a playoff berth next season? Let us know in the comments below!