Pelica Debrief
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New Orleans Pelicans: Best and Worst Case Scenarios

By Christopher Dodson

NEW ORLEANS, LA - APRIL 9: Solomon Hill #44 of the New Orleans Pelicans talks with DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the Golden State Warriors during the game on April 9, 2019 at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - APRIL 9: Solomon Hill #44 of the New Orleans Pelicans talks with DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the Golden State Warriors during the game on April 9, 2019 at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The New Orleans Pelicans have great expectations going into the 2019-20 NBA Season. What happens if things do not go as planned?

The excitement in the city for the New Orleans Pelicans has never been higher. Only the buzz during the home playoff games against the Portland Trail Blazers could rival the enthusiasm building for Zion Williamson‘s debut. Sad as it may be, that sweetness of that sweep was soon soured by the Golden State Warriors.

This season, the New Orleans Pelicans have a favorable final fifteen games. It is possible the team could be making a playoff push through that soft schedule. The front office has assembled arguably the deepest and most talented team in franchise history. Though this team has little continuity, that is the case for almost every title contender.

Jrue Holiday is actually projected to start his decline this season, according to 538’s CARMELO projection. Computers account mostly for the loss of Davis without weighing properly Holiday’s permission to dominate with a more talented supporting cast. Holiday’s worst-case scenario for this season is just maintaining the status quo.

Holiday already sports a 25% usage rate. That can not go up much more without the ball work and team unity suffering. Jrue is yet to show he is James Harden after all. A light uptick is in order which should boost his scoring average over last season (21.2) and help him eclipse over 8 assists per game.

One extra dunk and corner three per game will equal over 26 points per game. He will need to cut down on his turnovers though. He gives away the ball at an above-average rate. With his usual defensive game, an MVP vote or twenty is not out of the question.

Zion Williamson has to be judged on a few different levels. On an entertainment level, if Zion has less than 100 dunks in his first 50 games, some will feel cheated out of their highlight moments. However, the team needs a bit more substance to his usual forceful style.

Dunk attempts will be almost guaranteed points. Willamson needs to shoot better than 32% from deep to keep teams honest. The more he shows his range, the more space Derrick Favors will have to operate in the paint. In the pick and roll, keeping a defender honestly anchored to the perimeter will enable Zion to leave them flat-footed and powerless to stop his momentum towards the rim

Williamson cannot focus only on his version of a 3-and-D game. Inconsistent three-pointers lead to deficits. Dominate dunks do not erase those deficits. Using his strength to dominate the midrange rebounds and leading the break will show if Zion’s full skillset is mature enough for the NBA playoffs. The best-case scenario is that it is indeed ready for the grind of an 82 game season.

The worst-case scenario is a season full of highlight dunks while watching Williamson learn the game at the highest level. He’s never had to play this long of a season and never against this many talented players at once. He’s also in the best situation of any top overall pick in a long time. He should adjust to the slog of the season just fine. Either way, he will average 14 points and 7 rebounds, running away with NBA Rookie of the Year honors.

J.J. Redick is one of the veterans that will help Williamson see the season through. Redick has never missed the playoffs. That is his worst case for the season. The best case is he wins a championship. At his level of service time, that is all there is to play for, not individual season stats susceptible to variance.

Lonzo Ball has to shot his shot is not broken. Getting to the free-throw line is not the answer as long as Ball shoots 43% from the stripe. His career 31.5% mark from the three-point line will keep him on the bench during the fourth quarter.

Ball’s best case is averaging more than ten points per game. It will help the New Orleans Pelicans and his personal brand. Moreso would be averaging eight assists per game. He averaged 5.4 last season with LeBron James. Should Ball linger around his career averages, he could be balling for his third team before he experiences a Mardi Gras ball.

It will be possible to judge Derrick Favors season based on minutes per game. Favors preferred New Orleans because it was an opportunity to play his best position as the unquestioned starter. He aims to show he is an All-Star entering his prime, ready to challenge even Rudy Gobert.

If he shows there is a limit to his efficient minutes, Jaxson Hayes and Jahlil Okafor will be ready to take any scraps. Favors best way of showing he is deserving of All-Star recognition is to effectively replace the minutes and production of Anthony Davis. Favors makes 60% of Davis’ salary. The New Orleans Pelicans need him to match 85% of Davis’ production.

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