As the final dog days of summer dwindle down upon most sports fans, the NBA community has started stringing together projections for each respective team.
While some of these numbers can be extremely close to what Las Vegas Oddsmakers project at their main sportsbooks, there can also be a huge variance in win total projections based off of offseason additions, losses, coaching changes, personnel swaps and front office shake-ups. For those who notice these extreme variances quickly, you can scrounge up all of the loose change you can find under your couch cushions and head on down to your nearest legal Sportsbook and lay it all on the line. Of course, it would be smart to have some concrete reasoning and viable data in order to support the thesis of betting a team’s win total whether it be over or under.
The New Orleans Pelicans had quite the offseason to remember this summer as not only was David Griffin hired as the new head of basketball operations and general manager of the team upon conclusion of the regular season, but also what then followed which was a series of trades, draft picks and free agent signings that have unexpectedly put the Pelicans in a position to potentially compete for the postseason.
According to VegasInsider.com, the New Orleans Pelicans projected win total this upcoming season sits at 38.5 while Sportsbooks such as WestGate and PointsBet have the Pelicans Over/Under total at 39 wins. The Pels finished last season with a record of 33-49, good for 13th place in the Western Conference, tied with the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks. While the Anthony Davis drama and absence played a huge role in this underperforming season for the Pelicans, they will look forward to bouncing back this year with a new look roster hoping to take the NBA world by storm. With one of if not the best young cores in the entire Association lead by freak of nature number one overall pick Zion Wiliamson out of Duke University, the Pelicans now have a team of young low risk, high reward assets that can bring an exciting brand of basketball to the state of Louisiana. With these additions and savvy free agent signings and trades in J.J. Redick and Derrick Favors respectively, this team has a balance of veteran leadership and young talent the city has never seen. This is why the Pelicans are primed to go OVER the total this season and win 40+ games in the Western Conference.
Jrue Holiday – The Forgotten Leader
While Jrue Holiday may not be the flashiest name currently playing in the NBA, there is no denying the unique skillset that he carries on both ends of the floor. Holiday, 28 years of age, is coming off a career season in which he had a career-high in points (21.2ppg), rebounds (5.0rpg) and minutes (35.9). He averaged 7.7 assists on the season which was the third highest assist total of his career and also shot the ball at a clip of 47 percent on the season according to Basketball-Reference.com.
His 1.6 steals tied for his career high as Jrue took a huge leap in his defensive abilities last season. Jrue having multiple years under his belt in the Big Easy brings a lead by example approach and puts in relentless effort in order for the team to win basketball games. Entering the prime of his career at age 28, expect Jrue to take another leap now leading a young Pelicans team through a journey of growth and development. This Pelicans team has plenty of scoring ability which will only help Jrue’s assist output along with having more opportunities to push the ball as the lead guard in transition and find young, athletic teammates such as Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to finish in flow. When comparing Jrue’s stat line to that of Kyrie Irving last season (23.8 pts, 5.0 reb, 6.9 ast, 49 percent shooting) you can see why Holiday can be viewed as one of the most underrated players in the league, and should have a lucrative contract on his way soon.
J.J. Redick – Much-Needed Shooting
The Pelicans signed J.J. Redick to a two-year, $26.5 million deal this summer, after playing his previous two seasons in Philadelphia helping the Sixers reach the playoffs in both campaigns. Redick averaged 17.1 points per game in year 1 with the Sixers and 18.1 this past season which was a career high in scoring for the guard out of Duke. He is a career 41 percent three-point shooter although he had a less efficient season shooting beyond the arc last year, registering at around a 39.7 percent clip.
The Pelicans will rely heavily on his ability to roll off screens and hit open shots in transition, as well as catch-and-shoot opportunities. Redick was noted as a great leader in the Sixers locker room and should fit in perfectly having to take on a leadership role in New Orleans especially given the age of the roster and the adjustments that will be needed on a day-to-day basis. He will help the young rookies through their growing pains, offer a voice, mentorship and any daily difficulties to adjusting to life in the NBA.
If he can do this along with knock down his threes, expect J.J. to fill a big role on this Pelicans team this season.
Zion Williamson – The Poster Child
While the last thing most Pelicans fans were expecting on Draft Lottery night was to win the prized number one overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, that is exactly what happened, and in doing so the Pelicans netted an asset that can arguably be looked at as a bigger piece for this franchise than former star Anthony Davis. The former McDonald’s All-American, John R. Wooden Award Winner for Nation’s Most Outstanding Men’s Player, and number one overall pick out of Duke University is now the face of the franchise and will have David Griffin looking to build around him as a centerpiece of the organization for years to come. While best friend and roommate at Duke, RJ Barrett, went third overall to the Knicks, separating the two companions, Zion Williamson was beyond excited to feel the love and passion of the market of New Orleans.
At age 18, the freshman averaged 22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists on a mind-boggling 68 percent shooting from the field in 30 minutes per game. While Zion’s efficiency was something we rarely see on the college stage, his 64 percent from the free-throw line will be something he will look to improve on in his rookie campaign. The biggest question front office executives, scouts and analysts have about Zion is whether he can keep his weight down and transfer his dominance at the college level to the NBA platform. Considering Zion would be the second heaviest player in the NBA only behind Mavs’ center Boban Marjanovic, the size and strength factor of the NBA shouldn’t be a huge adjustment for Zion. Zion has made a living off of using his body and brute strength to get into the paint and create offensively this way as seen by his 68 percent field goal possible, especially when rebounding the basketball and pushing in transition, something that Alvin Gentry has loved to do since his time in both Phoenix and Golden State. Demanding such high physical defense in order to be stopped will fair well for Zion in the NBA in terms of having more opportunity to find open teammates, capable of knocking down open threes and shots around the rim. Also having veteran leaders such as J.J. Redick, Derrick Favors, Jrue Holiday to help ease the workload for the rookie Forward will obviously be beneficial over the course of the season. On the flip side, having a young, youthful group who will grow alongside Zion will also be beneficial for his growth and ability to adapt to everything the league has to offer.
Adjusting to a new schedule, being on the road almost every day and the physical demands the NBA requires will be a growing process for Zion, but if the newly signed Jordan Athlete can live up to the hype and deliver what everyone expects to be a Rookie of the Year season, there’s no ceiling on this Pelicans team.
Lonzo Ball – A New Beginning
When Lonzo Ball was drafted second overall by the Los Angeles Lakers, expectations for the young kid out of UCLA were soaring over the Hollywood Hills. Unfortunately for Ball, injuries and missteps in business decisions along the way have had the young Point Guard underperforming after his first two seasons. The 21-year old is averaging 10 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists over his short NBA career, although he had a dip in points, rebounds, assists, steals last season eventually leading to the Lakers parting ways with the guard in the Anthony Davis trade package.
The Pelicans on the other hand, see Lonzo as a potential franchise changing combo-guard who can distribute the ball, rebound at a very high percentage for a guard as well as create for himself offensively when he can. Lonzo has been mainly credited for his defense in his first two seasons and his 3-point shot did improve incrementally last season as well. With Ball becoming a Restricted Free-Agent in the summer of 2021, the Pelicans will have two years to gauge whether keeping Lonzo around long-term is the route, however making the type of trade they did involving their former Superstar Anthony Davis displays the confidence and promise the Pelicans have for the young guard.
Ball will be making approximately $8.72 million this season and can be offered a qualifying offer of approximately $14.36 million in the summer of 2021 which is a bargain in today’s NBA market. If Lonzo can continue to improve his shooting, stay healthy and be a beneficiary of Alvin Gentry’s run and gun system he could be primed for a career season. This Pelicans team has front court depth, three-point shooting, athleticism and speed which will only play into Lonzo’s strengths and allow more opportunity for assists. Playing alongside Jrue Holiday in the backcourt could have the Pelicans labelled as one of the best defensive backcourts in the NBA, and if you can get an offensive burst from both as well this team will be competing for a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart – The Other Pieces
While Lonzo Ball was the flashiest name involved in the Anthony Davis trade with the Los Angeles Lakers, the Pelicans also netted two additional young assets that will be able to contribute and compete for playing time right away. Brandon Ingram will enter this season coming off a career high 18.3 points per game with the Lakers, shooting approximately 50 percent from the field which was also a career best. He is another example of low risk, high reward as the 22 year-old has one year remaining on his $7.26 million-dollar deal before New Orleans can offer him a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent in the summer of 2020. Ingram also averaged 5.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists to go along with his 18 points which is a great sign for the Pelicans who can use the scoring to replace departing forward Julius Randle who left for the New York Knicks in July. With two very capable guards in Holiday and Ball to find talented scorers like Ingram, opportunity should not be a problem for the young Forward and he should get his fair share of shots per game. Coupled with the fact that Zion will demand a lot of attention and J.J. Redick cannot be left alone outside the arc, Ingram could be looking at a career year with New Orleans and one that could potentially lead to the playoffs. Ingram has made a conscious effort to improve his three-point shooting this summer as the Duke product only shot 33 percent from three during the 18-19’ season. The Pelicans will take this season to analyze how Ingram fits into the fray and whether he can be a long-term piece to this team’s future, however the chemistry with former Lakers teammates won’t hurt at all.
A name lost in the trade of the Anthony Davis is Josh Hart, who New Orleans will be able to use as a Swiss Army knife coming off the bench. Hart was included along with Ball, Ingram and three future first round draft picks in the trade for AD. With two years remaining on his deal at an average salary of $1,661,280 according to Spotrac.com, the Pelicans will have flexibility with keeping Hart on the roster while also having a productive role player coming off the bench who can provide a boost both offensively and defensively. This is another example of how David Griffin leveraged the trade to acquire cheap, young, high upside talent in hopes of it panning out over the next couple of years. Hart is an excellent rebounding guard who adds to the theme of defending guards for the Pelicans. He provides stability to Gentry’s second unit and can provide a scoring boost as well, averaging 7.9 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists on 43.5 percent shooting from the field. Effective bench scoring and production from Hart could play a key part in the Pelicans beating their 39-win projection by Las Vegas Sportsbooks.
Jaxson Hayes – First rounder
While the biggest splashes made by the Pelicans this offseason were through trade and with the first overall pick in the draft, the team also had two other first round picks worth mentioning in this draft. Jaxson Hayes was selected eight overall by the Pelicans out of Texas University and will provide a shot-blocking and rim-rattling experience for Pelicans fans everywhere. The 6’11” center had a stand out game at this years Summer League in Las Vegas which included a 28-point outing vs the Chicago Bulls.
Hayes averaged a double-double over the course of Summer League and racked up a few highlights along the way. Hayes can provide an immediate impact with both his shot blocking skills as well as cleaning up around the rim and putbacks. Being an athletic, long center will aid Jaxson in a run and gun Pelicans system and I would expect to see Hayes have many alley-oops from Zo’ and Jrue this season. Having an excellent mentor like Derrick Favors who will most likely start at the five for the Pelicans this season will also help Hayes learn the ins and outs of being an NBA big. Favors has a very similar playing style as he knows his role, is a big body, cleans up around the rim and does the dirty work for his team. These sort of attributes are underrated and will go a long way in the development of Jaxson this season. Favors, coming off a career year in field goal percentage at 58.6 percent leaves Utah after nine seasons and brings a veteran leadership this Pelicans team will crave all season.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker – First Rounder
The last, but definitely not least, first-round pick for the Pelicans this season was Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He was selected 17th overall by the Pelicans out of Virginia Tech hailing from Toronto, Canada. The 21 year-old while older for the class, provides a scoring boost right away and had that on display in Summer league a few months ago. He averaged 27.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.6 steals while hitting the three ball at a very high clip as well. Nickeil showed an excellent ability to get to the rim, knock down the jumper as well as find both open teammates and utilize his court vision to confuse multiple defenses over the course of the tournament. With such a young core on this Pelicans squad, competing for playing time and during practices will be a huge element for New Orleans this year. While Nickeil is not expected to get significant minutes in his rookie campaign, providing a scoring threat off of the bench to tie over productive minutes while the starts can catch a breather will be imperative in order for this Pelicans team to win 40+ games and potentially make the post season.
When analyzing the additions and subtractions of this Pelicans team this offseason, you can make the case that this team added much more efficient and depth scoring, better play makers, more efficient three-point shooting, front court depth, guard depth as well as front office that is well-respected by peers around the league. It is clear that this franchise is headed in the right direction and with enormous opportunity arising in the Big Easy, the fans now have something to get excited for. A young team with promise, athleticism, defense, shooting and great coaching is always a recipe for success in the NBA.
With the Pelicans coming out on the right side of each of these categories, we may see playoff basketball in New Orleans, Louisiana. Let’s dance!