With multiple players due to receive max contracts, the New Orleans Pelicans will have to make a trade if they want to keep their core intact.
The New Orleans Pelicans should be the envy of the league. Zion Williamson is the most exciting rookie since LeBron James, they have the best young core in the NBA and a slew of draft assets.
The Pelicans have young talent all over the place, so much so that promising youngsters Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker could barely get off the bench.
They may have found the next Durant in young All-Star forward Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball is rounding into the league’s next great point guard and Josh Hart is already a valuable bench player in his young career.
The problem is that eventually all of these guys are going to get paid.
Ingram is set to get a max extension that could turn into a super-max if he makes the All-NBA team.
Ball will be due for an extension in 2021-22, as will Hart and it is not too early to start planning for Zion’s next contract, which could be the biggest in NBA history.
The New Orleans Pelicans are not a major market, so are unlikely to go too far into the luxury tax, even if their young team is winning.
The good news is that only Jrue Holiday, Zion, Hayes and Alexander-Walker are signed past the 2020-21 season, so the New Orleans Pelicans will have some cap space.
The problem is that with two potential max contract extensions on the horizon, the Pelicans may not be able to keep all of their young talent and still put together a deep, competitive team.
Some tough questions will have to be answered.
Do they let Derrick Favors walk?
What do they do with the contract of J.J. Redick?
Will they have any cap space to make a splash in free agency?
The truth is that if the New Orleans Pelicans want to retain all of their young core, they will have to make an offseason trade.
Here are three players that may have to be traded.
Jaxson Hayes, Center
Hayes showed a lot of promise in his first season with the New Orleans Pelicans.
In his 56 games, he averaged 7.5 points and four rebounds, blocked some shots and had a few thunderous dunks.
He is still just 19, is on a reasonable contract and is already a fan favorite.
It seems like this is exactly the type of player the New Orleans Pelicans shouldn’t trade in the offseason until you take a closer look.
The Contract
Hayes is signed through the 2022-23 season.
He is due to make $5.1 million next season, $5.3 million the following and it ramps up to $6.8 million in 2022-23.
This may seem like peanuts for someone of Hayes’ potential, but the Pelicans will not have the luxury of paying for potential.
These numbers would be reasonable, even if Hayes was primarily a backup and they become really manageable if he is playing big minutes, but that is a big “if.”
Backup centers come cheap these days, especially ones who can’t shoot, so the Pelicans could likely get similar production out of a much cheaper player, someone like free agent Nerlens Noel.
The New Orleans Pelicans can probably find a more efficient way to spend $6.8 million, and put those savings into the Lonzo and Zion extensions.
The Fit
Hayes is only 19, so it is too early to project how he’ll end up in the NBA, but as of now he doesn’t do much that the Pelicans actually need.
With Zion taking up most of the lane, the New Orleans Pelicans need big men who can stretch the floor and knock down shots.
Hayes currently projects as a rim runner, shot blocker, dunker and not much else. He’s great at running the floor, so fits into the Pels up-tempo style, but his offensive game is limited.
If Hayes doesn’t evolve, he won’t fit with what the Pelicans are trying to do, which is play small-ball around Zion.
Hayes would definitely have value in a trade, and the Pelicans could likely trade him for future cap relief and replace his production with a cheaper backup.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shooting Guard
After a stellar preseason, it looked as if Alexander-Walker was poised to have a huge rookie season for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Unfortunately, NAW came back to Earth during the regular season, eventually finding himself on the end of the bench and then the G-League before getting injured just before the hiatus.
Like Hayes, Alexander-Walker has huge potential, but the New Orleans Pelicans may not have time to wait around for him to reach it.
Potential is a luxury if you are trying to win titles and mid-market teams like the New Orleans Pelicans have much shorter windows than the big-city teams on the coasts.
The Contract
Alexander-Walker is set to make just $3.1million next year, $3.26 the following and $5 million in 2022-23. Like Hayes, the final two seasons are team options, so the New Orleans Pelicans will have choices.
If NAW lives up to his considerable potential, then five million is a great bargain for a shooting guard, but if he doesn’t, the Pelicans could be stuck paying big money for a bench player.
The New Orleans Pelicans are going to have to find efficiency and value if they want to keep their core and fill out their bench, so may decide that they can get someone even younger to stash or a veteran minimum to take NAW’s spot.
The Fit
This is where trading Alexander-Walker gets tricky.
Though he has yet to do much for the New Orleans Pelicans, his timeline fits well with the departure of E’Twaun Moore and eventually Redick and Holiday.
If the Pelicans feel like NAW is their guy and can fill one of these guys’ shoes, either as a bench player or starter, then keeping him would be smart.
If they have lost faith in the 21-year-old, then he could be jettisoned for a lower cost veteran to fill out the bench.
If the Pelicans can get a future draft pick and a cheap veteran for Alexander-Walker this offseason, then they may have to jump on it.
Jrue Holiday, Guard
This one is tough.
We recently wrote that Holiday is the face of the franchise, and could be like Drew Brees is for the Saints if he were to finish his career with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Holiday is a plus defender, plays well off the ball, creates his own shots and gets them for others, so he’d seem to be the perfect shooting guard for a team with loads of potential scorers.
There is also a strong argument that Holiday is the best player on the New Orleans Pelicans and should be paid like it.
The problem is that he won’t be the best player on the team forever.
Holiday is currently 29, and is having one of his best seasons, so now is probably the time to get as much as they can for him.
The Contract
Holiday is signed through the 2021-22 season and will make $26.1 million next year and $27 million the next.
This is not a terrible deal for the Pelicans, as Holiday falls into a similar salary range as other guards of his stature.
The problem is that most other teams don’t have Zion, Lonzo and Ingram.
If all three of these players end up on max or even super-max deals, then there is no way they can keep Holiday as well.
As great as it is to have two talented playmakers in Holiday and Ball, the reality is that it is a luxury the Pelicans probably can’t afford past this season.
The New Orleans Pelicans are in a great spot, but it is going to be complicated moving forward if they want to retain the bulk of their young core.
Building an NBA title contender is a tricky business, as most executives agree that you need a “Big 3” but also a deep bench to make a run.
Something will have to give for New Orleans, whether it is preemptively trading one of their young players with potential or trying to move their biggest contract.
This offseason will be unprecedented in many ways and the New Orleans Pelicans will be in the thick of trade and free agent rumors.