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Odds each New Orleans Pelicans free agent re-signs this summer

Willie Lutz
Willie Lutz

Pelica Debrief

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - FEBRUARY 28: Brandon Ingram #14 of the New Orleans Pelicans (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Derrick Favors, New Orleans Pelicans
HOUSTON, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 02: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets and Derrick Favors #22 of the New Orleans Pelicans (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

While they won’t have too many dramatic free agents hitting the unrestricted market, the New Orleans Pelicans have choices to make on their roster.

The New Orleans Pelicans have an interesting summer ahead of them, one way or the other, with six players on their roster hitting free agency in some capacity.

Last summer, in addition to a few franchise-changing trades, the Pelicans made the move to bring veteran shooter J.J. Redick to New Orleans on a two-year, $26.5 million contract, signaling the team’s aggression on the open market.

In all likelihood, it doesn’t seem like the Pelicans will have the resources to make a significant splash with this year’s class of free agents, that is unless they make some surprising moves to allow for greater cap flexibility on the roster.

The Pelicans should have a strong chance of retaining any of their own players this summer, should they choose to make moves in that direction.

Due to the potential of a declining salary cap heading due to the league’s suspension in reaction to the breakout of COVID-19, in addition to a bevy of teams lacking the salary cap space to make big splashes, it’s unlikely that we’ll see non-stars sign any ultra-lucrative contracts.

While they’re projected to have roughly $26 million in cap room available this summer, it seems more likely that the team will use a big chunk of that money to retain key players, plus allow for room to ink extension with others in the organization in the not-too-distant future.

In reality, this roster won’t stay the same forever and there’s bound to be some turnover this summer, but in many cases, it’s a matter of who the team thinks will make their team stronger next season.

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 16: Frank Jackson #15 of the New Orleans Pelicans makes a free throw against the Utah Jazz at Smoothie King Center on January 16, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 16: Frank Jackson #15 of the New Orleans Pelicans makes a free throw against the Utah Jazz at Smoothie King Center on January 16, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Frank Jackson, Restricted Free Agent

2019-2020 Salary Figure: $1.6 million

Missing his first full season of NBA action with an injury before being a contributing piece of the New Orleans bench for the past two seasons, 2017 second-round pick Frank Jackson is set to hit the free-agent market for the first time.

If fans have watched ten or more games combined from either of the past two seasons, it’s likely that they’ve experienced the Frank Jackson rollercoaster; he’s either going to hit some big shots and play solid defense or turn the ball over like crazy and match it with some odd shot choices.

There are a lot of capable bench point guards in this league that have a similar skill level to Jackson, but the Pelicans could easily be inclined to hold its course with a known commodity.

Just 21-years-old and a part of the team’s pipeline to Duke University, the easy option would be to hand Jackson his qualifying offer and see if any team wants to get him on an offer sheet; then, they can either match that or let a team pay him a more lucrative contract.

Likelihood of resigning with the New Orleans Pelicans: 55% chance

New Orleans Pelicans, Jahlil Okafor
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 09: Jahlil Okafor #8 of the New Orleans Pelicans shoots against Blake Griffin #23 (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Jahlil  Okafor, Unrestricted Free Agent

2019-2020 Salary Figure: $1.7 million (veteran’s minimum)

Two years after being picked up off the scrap heap by the New Orleans Pelicans and a handful of up-and-down performances since Jahlil Okafor is once again hitting the free-agent market.

It doesn’t seem incredibly likely that the Pelicans will need Okafor to round out their roster moving forward, as the center received a lot of “DNP-Coach’s Decision” nods this season despite the team’s dealing with a lot of injuries to key players, appearing in just 28 games.

With Jaxson Hayes developing, Nicolò Melli doing a nice job against smaller lineups at the center position, and the team likely to need roster space for its picks in this year’s NBA Draft, it’s just hard to carve out a roster spot for a slow-footed, paint-focused center.

Once the third-overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft by the Philadelphia 76ers as an early piece of “The Process”, it’s been a pretty underwhelming five seasons of professional basketball for Okafor, who could have a hard time finding the next job in this league.

Likelihood of re-signing with the New Orleans Pelicans: 10% chance

Kenrich Williams, New Orleans Pelicans
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 20: Kenrich Williams #34 of the New Orleans Pelicans (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Kenrich Williams, Restricted Free Agent

2019-2020 Salary Figure: $1.4 million

Not one of the best-known players to outsiders but perhaps one of the more-liked guys by some of the hardcore fans, Kenrich Williams is due to hit restricted free agency after two years with the organization.

Praised in the Pelicans’ locker room and by Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin, there’s a lot of organizational love for Kenny Hustle.

Early in the season, there was even a lot of fan love for Williams, who started 17 games this season and appeared 35 total before missing much of the second half with a back injury.

However, the numbers aren’t pretty for Williams, who averaged 3.8 points and 5.1 rebounds while shooting 34.3% from the field and 26% from three-point range. The numbers, on the other hand, took a sharp decline once it became clear Williams was dealing with a lingering medical issue.

Seemingly, if he’s going to be back in New Orleans, it seems that his cap figure is going to remain particularly low. If that’s the case, it’s pretty conceivable that a high-character, high-motor player like Williams remains with the organization.

Likelihood of re-signing with the New Orleans Pelicans: 60% chance

E'Twuan Moore, New Orleans Pelicans
HOUSTON, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 02: E’Twaun Moore #55 of the New Orleans Pelicans (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

E’Twaun Moore, Unrestricted Free Agent

2019-2020 Salary Figure: $8.7 million

Representing the city of New Orleans with honor over the past four seasons, E’Twaun Moore has been a staple of the team’s bench through thick and thin.

However, Moore turned 31-years-old in February and is certainly entering the latter stages of his prime.

Averaging 8.6 points and hitting 37.5% of his 3.1 three-point attempts per game, Moore did a nice job in his role with the New Orleans Pelicans’ second unit this season. However, those are definitely replaceable; the Pelicans could easily go with a younger and cheaper bench option.

Further, there’s going to be teams interested in adding more this summer, as the title-chasing Philadelphia 76ers were rumored to have interest in finding a deal for the perimeter-oriented scorer.

With J.J. Redick in clear command of the Pelicans’ top bench role as their sharpshooter and Nickeil Alexander-Walker waiting in the wing, it’s hard to foresee a long-term future for Moore in New Orleans.

Likelihood of re-signing with the New Orleans Pelicans: 25% chance

Derrick Favors, New Orleans Pelicans
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 04: Derrick Favors #22 of the New Orleans Pelicans  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Derrick Favors, Unrestricted Free Agent

2019-2020 Salary Figure: $17.7 million

Coming over in a deal with the Utah Jazz, in fact, one he requested his former employer to make, Derrick Favors hits free agency after just one partial year with the Pelicans.

Favors acted as the team’s biggest interior difference-maker on the defensive end this season and New Orleans lacked identity without their starting center, who missed games due to injury and the untimely passing of his mother early in the season.

Averaging nearly a double-double at 9.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per contest, Favors provided the team with a really solid interior force when available, helping the team correct course from their dreadful start to the 2019-2020 season.

The Pelicans will likely want Favors to split more time with Jaxson Hayes than they have this season, as the rookie center is certainly viewed as a big part of the team’s future.

Additionally, if the Pelicans focus their attention on a turn towards a primarily small-ball look, with Zion Williamson taking the reigns at the center position (where he only spent 9% of his minutes this season), they could opt to let Nicolò Melli and Hayes play as their interior substitutes.

However, Favors is likely to be affordable for the organization and a one-to-two year deal to keep his veteran presence around the team’s young locker room makes him a logical new-contract candidate.

Likelihood of re-signing with the New Orleans Pelicans: 65% chance

New Orleans Pelicans, Brandon Ingram
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – FEBRUARY 28: Brandon Ingram #14 of the New Orleans Pelicans (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Brandon  Ingram, Restricted Free Agent

2019-2020 Salary Figure: $7.3 million

There isn’t a heck of a lot to say on this one, as Brandon Ingram is all but guaranteed to be back in the big easy next season and for a long time to come, something that should excite Pelicans fans.

It’s been an awesome year for Ingram, who averaged 24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while stroking 38.7% of his 6.3 three-point attempts per contest en route to his first appearance as a member of the NBA All-Star Team.

Acting as one of the biggest tickets among players hitting free agency this summer, Ingram has been one of the most improved players in the league during his first season with the New Orleans Pelicans.

Still just 22-years-old, Ingram has his best basketball ahead of him, which is a great thing to say considering this time a year ago, it seemed his career could be in jeopardy due to blood clots in his shoulder.

Beloved by his teammates and receiving high praise from the organization, Brandon Ingram is going to be a star in New Orleans for a long time to come, as the team will apparently match any offer sheet from other teams if they don’t end up inking him to a likely max-deal.

Likelihood of re-signing with the New Orleans Pelicans: 100% chance

Willie Lutz

Willie Lutz

Covering the New Orleans Pelicans as a Co-Expert here at Pelican Debrief. Graduated from the Ohio State University in May 2019.