Since the New Orleans Pelicans restructured last summer, many have written their speculation of a potential swap involving Jrue Holiday to Denver.
While it’s true that the New Orleans Pelicans have an exciting young core and are without a doubt designing their roster for the future, Jrue Holiday shouldn’t be simply scratched out of that forecast, even though fake trades across the globe have him on the move on the daily.
One popular and frequent fake trade features the New Orleans Pelicans sending Holiday to the Denver Nuggets in exchange for their young, two-way shooting guard Gary Harris and a first-round pick sometime in the next year or two.
This trade is very popular among those trying to find ways for the team to move on from Holiday, though it doesn’t seem like a very desirable one for the Pelicans in reality.
A big part of this trade forecast is based on the duo’s similar salaries. Gary Harris is in the second year of a 4-year, $84 million contract that’ll pay him $19.2 million next season and $20.5 million in the fourth and final year. Jrue Holiday is entering the last year of his five-year extension before the 2020-2021 campaign, due $25.4 million.
While Holiday could accept his player option before the 2021-2022 season worth $26.3 million, he could easily enter free agency and pursue a longer-term deal that’ll guarantee more cash down the line.
Do those contracts have similar figures and move cleanly on a balance sheet? Sure. Are you making up the talent difference with a potential first-round pick and Harris? Next to one of the league’s best perimeter defenders in Holiday, that value looks pretty hollow in my book.
Even more important for New Orleans is trying to make sense of Harris’s contract on a bankroll that already looks pretty full.
With eventual extensions for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Jaxson Hayes, on top of any free agency additions made by David Griffin to help turn his squad into a title contender, it seems like Harris wouldn’t provide the same impact as Holiday while still providing a hard-to-navigate salary figure
Simply, I don’t see what trading Holiday for Harris and a protected first-round pick or two really does for the Pelicans.
What Holiday provides as a leader and an offensive player, not to mention being a huge part of what the New Orleans Pelicans are doing as a franchise, building to be one of the league’s elite few yearly title contenders.
Here are concessions I’m willing to make about Harris, who is still a good NBA player despite some struggles over the past couple seasons:
- Gary Harris is a good defensive player.
- Gary Harris can be a top-8 player on a championship team (the Bill Simmons test).
- Gary Harris makes a salary that makes a lot of sense in trade packages.
All of these things are realities. They don’t change the fact that Holiday continues to want to be in New Orleans and is simply a better player than Harris.
Harris is 25-years-old and in his sixth season in the NBA. By his age-25 season, his seventh in the NBA, Holiday had already made an All-Star Game appearance. Let’s compare that pair of age-25 seasons:
- Jrue Holiday (2015-2016): 65 games, 28.2 minutes, 16.8 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 33.6% three-point rate on 4 attempts, 84.3% free-throw rate on 3.3 attempts, 105 offensive rating, 111 defensive rating
- Gary Haris (2019-2020): 56 games, 31.8 minutes, 10.4 points, 2.1 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 33.3% three-point rate on 5.5 attempts, 81.5 free-throw rate on 1.6 attempts, 105 offensive rating, 109 defensive rating
As you can see by that set of numbers, Harris is no slouch, but even though Jrue was acting as the sixth man for that Pelicans team (only starting 23 games that season), he was more valuable for his squad in times where the three-point shot still wasn’t at its highest value.
Granted, I’m a person that’s been interested in bringing players with crooked jump shots to New Orleans as shooting coach Fred Vinson continues to receive high praise for his ability to correct flaws in a player’s stroke.
However, when you’re essentially taking a sure-thing in Holiday and replacing it with unsure pieces in Harris and a potential first, you’re putting a lot of weight on Vinson’s shoulders to try and carry your future.
Even writing about this trade around the deadline myself, I thought Denver would have to move three first-round picks AND another good young player in addition to Harris to make this swap work; I can’t imagine the Nuggets will be willing to pay that price for an aging player on an expiring contract.
It doesn’t help Denver’s negotiation points that Harris isn’t even the best young talent on his team, especially as his shot continues to show cracks in its foundation.
https://twitter.com/KrrisssW/status/1250145608540848128
Like this follower pointed out on Twitter, the top asset for this Denver Nuggets team is Michael Porter Jr., a player who is both pretty much untouchable and has copious red flags due to a back injury that kept him out of action for almost a season and a half.
If Denver wants to swap for Jrue Holiday, they’re going to have to really throw the gravy on the package, which they might not think is prudent for a soon-to-be 30-year-old guard on an expiring contract.
Gary Harris gives the Denver Nuggets a lot of positive impact in his current role, but it’s not the same kind of impact Jrue Holiday’s veteran leadership provides for a New Orleans Pelicans team that rosters eight players 25-years-old or younger.
At the end of the day, extending Jrue still seems to make the most sense for the future of the Pelicans. Even if trading him is on the table for the organization, Harris just doesn’t make sense for this team while they try to build to be a title contender.
Still, a good young player and interesting for a lot of teams to consider, the salary figure and skillset from Gary Harris just doesn’t make sense for these New Orleans Pelicans, especially at the cost of losing Jrue Holiday.