The New Orleans Pelicans will need internal improvements if they want to get to the next level. Here are three guys that are going to help get them there.
The New Orleans Pelicans will try to tweak the team in the draft and free agency, but internal improvements are their quickest way to take the next step as a team.
The New Orleans Pelicans have a slew of exciting young players, but many of them were buried on the bench behind veterans this season and didn’t get a chance to show what they can do.
Brandon Ingram is likely to receive a max contract extension this offseason, with Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson trailing not too far behind, which means the New Orleans Pelicans will need cheap production to offset this cost.
One way to get that is by drafting wisely, choosing players who fill holes and who are ready to contribute at soon as they enter the NBA.
Another way is through free agency, though the New Orleans Pelicans will have to spend thriftily if they expect to get value without hampering their future.
However, the best way to get better without bloating the payroll is to get improvement from players who are already on the team.
While most fans focus on making big splashes in the draft, free agency and via trade, internal improvements are the way to titles.
Ask Toronto, whose titles came after big improvements from players like Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. Yes, they made the big trade for Kawhi Leonard, but they were able to do so because they were getting cheap production out of guys already on the team.
If the New Orleans Pelicans want to make the leap into contention, they need improvements from the guys who aren’t making much money.
Here are three players we think are going to make that leap as soon as next season.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shooting Guard
Why He’s Important
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is not a household name, but he is low-key one of the most important members of the New Orleans Pelicans.
He didn’t get a lot of run outside of the beginning of the season and was eventually relegated to the G-League so that he could get more reps.
Alexander-Walker showed flashes early in the season and it looked like he might contribute as a rookie.
But the New Orleans Pelicans are deep at his position and had veterans like J.J. Redick and E’Twaun Moore who can still do more at this point in their careers.
Alexander-Walker could be vital to the future success of the New Orleans Pelicans, as he is on a team-friendly contract that runs through the 2022-23 season.
He is one of only three Pelicans who are signed to that point along with Zion and Jaxson Hayes, so he’s definitely part of the future.
The reason he is so important is that his low-cost production would allow the Pelicans to eventually shed some salary in the form of a Redick or even Jrue Holiday trade.
The New Orleans Pelicans need another wing who can defend, a center and a back up point guard, and some of these needs will have to be made via free agency.
If NAW steps up they can shed some of the money they have tied up in shooting guards and focus it elsewhere.
Why We Think He’ll Make the Leap
NAW will make the leap next year and here’s why.
He is 21-years-old, which is the age most players start to develop their “finished” body and can better handle the rigors of a full NBA season.
NAW will put on additional strength in his first NBA offseason, which should allow him to more capably defend either guard position and even the wing.
The New Orleans Pelicans need more perimeter defenders, especially in the second unit and Alexander-Walker could pair with Josh Hart to form a versatile defensive duo.
NAW is also going to get better as a 3-point shooter, another skill most players start to develop in their second and third year in the league.
NAW showed he can shoot it, such as the 27 point game he had against Miami when he knocked down 6 of 9 three’s. NAW’s shot is going to improve, which should keep him on the floor more often.
Our Prediction
With Frank Jackson, Moore and Kenrich Williams all likely to leave in free agency, NAW is going to get more minutes, which should help his consistency on both ends of the floor.
Alexander-Walker will start at least half of the Pelicans’ games next season, which will allow them to move Holiday to the bench and spread their scoring.
Jaxson Hayes, Center
Why He’s Important
Jaxson Hayes, much like NAW, is important because he can offer production at a low-cost.
He is also on a team-friendly deal that runs through the 2022-23 season, so if he can produce on this contract he’ll be one of the most valuable players on the team.
It’s especially important because Hayes plays center, a position the New Orleans Pelicans do not want to invest heavily in with big paydays coming to Ingram, Ball and Zion.
Hayes needs to make the leap so that the New Orleans Pelicans do not have to re-sign Derrick Favors, though we’d love to have the big guy back on a minimum deal.
The problem is that Hayes is probably not big and strong enough to bang with NBA centers full time, so they will have to find another big who can defend.
But that doesn’t mean Hayes won’t make a big leap next year.
Why We Think He’ll Make the Leap
Hayes was a very productive player in his short spurts for the New Orleans Pelicans.
His per-36 numbers of 15.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and two blocks would be more than enough to keep him on the floor if he played better defense.
Hayes was often lost on defense, slow to rotate and missed a lot of assignments. But he’s only 19-years-old, and defensive positioning is hard to learn for a big man.
Hayes will spend the offseason in the film room, learning his role so that he is much better prepared to help the New Orleans Pelicans on the defensive end.
Hayes will undoubtedly get stronger in his first offseason in the NBA, which should keep him from getting pushed around as much in the paint.
It’s also possible that Hayes will have a much more defined role with the team. This season he never really knew when he was going to play, which is a tough spot for a guy who is used to being the star of his team.
Hayes will likely be the first big man off the bench for the New Orleans Pelicans, which should help him get into a rhythm while familiarizing him with the team’s schemes on both ends.
Hayes can already run the floor, dunk and block shots into the tenth row, but he needs to add nuance to his game, especially defensively.
We think he will.
Our Prediction
Hayes will be big off the New Orleans Pelicans’ bench next season and will put himself in the running for the Most Improved Player Award. You heard it here first.
Lonzo Ball, Point Guard
Why He’s Important
Next season will be the final year of Lonzo Ball’s rookie deal, so he’ll be looking to make the leap to maximize his earnings in free agency.
Lonzo is part of the “Big Three” of the New Orleans Pelicans, a guy the team hopes to build around along with Zion and Ingram.
But Lonzo’s importance to the team goes deeper.
If he can make another leap this season, the Pelicans will have a chance to lock up three players who are all young and already top-five at their positions.
Not many teams can say that have a top-five point guard, wing and power forward who are all under 23-years-old.
Lonzo’s improvement would also allow the New Orleans Pelicans to possibly move Jrue Holiday to the bench, which would spread out their play making and make the bench unit more effective offensively.
Holiday would then be the primary scorer in the second unit, something the Pelicans have lacked.
This only works if Lonzo takes over this team and becomes the alpha guard on both ends of the floor, a role currently filled by Holiday.
Why We Think He’ll Make the Leap
Lonzo has taken a lot of criticism over the years, but one thing no one has ever questioned is his work ethic.
It’s obvious that he will get better every offseason, add strength to his frame and skills to his already full bag.
Lonzo’s 3-point shooting jumped from 32.9 percent to 38.3 this season, a testament to his work in the offseason with shooting coach Fred Vinson.
It’s not crazy to think he’ll make another leap with his shooting.
Where Lonzo really needs to improve is around the rim and at the free-throw line, where he shoots just 56.7 percent.
Lonzo is gifted at getting to the rim, but misses a lot of bunnies and doesn’t capitalize when other teams send him to the line.
If he can improve his free throw shooting to even league average, he’ll add a few points per game to his scoring average. Right now, Lonzo looks like he’s trying not to get fouled when he gets into the lane.
If he’s more confident in his free throw shooting, he’ll be more aggressive and draw more fouls.
Another reason he’ll make the leap is because he’ll have a full offseason, training camp and pre-season with Zion, with whom he already has great chemistry.
They’ve only had 19 games together and are already one of the most dynamic pairs in the NBA.
Lonzo will get better as he and Zion continue to grow this chemistry.
Our Prediction
Lonzo will improve around the rim and at the charity stripe, which will increase his scoring average to 15 a game.
As he evolves into the team leader, he will handle the ball more and be top-five in assists, leading to his first All-Star game selection.
If these three can make the leap, the Pelicans can more efficiently allocate their resources now and in the future.
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