New Orleans Pelicans: Projecting the Next 5 Years in the Southwest
By Tim Burke
New Orleans Pelicans: Evaluating the Spurs and Rockets
The Old Guard in Texas
These two teams have long been in the playoffs and while one may be staring down a rebuild, it’s too early to tell if that will happen.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs might be the most thankful for the play-in aspect of the NBA restart. If they can hold the eight seed, or beat the eight seed twice as the number nine, San Antonio would continue in the playoffs for 22 straight seasons. That’s tied with the Syracuse Nationals/Philadelphia 76ers for the longest playoff streak in NBA history.
It’s one of the most amazing streaks in team sports and Spurs fans would love to see it extended.
This team has an average age of 26.3 years old, only one year older than the New Orleans Pelicans, which may be hard to believe considering the two biggest names on the roster are at least 30 (DeMar DeRozen and LaMarcus Aldridge) and they have three other contributors over 30 years old.
There are no players between the ages of 26 and 30 on this roster, that helps keep the average age down but could mean that San Antonio will continue to be a playoff team as their young players enter the primes of their career surrounded by veterans.
This is shown in the teams Win Shares as well, as DeRozan and Aldridge lead the way with 6.2 and 4.4 but are followed closely by Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl and Dejounte Murray.
The older players lead the team by this measure but the next three players are all under 26 and look to be key members of their future.
The San Antonio organization has a reputation as a place that’s high on culture and only goes after free agents that fit their style. That will be a big factor after the 2020-21 season, when four of the five highest salaries are free agents. That free agent class is shaping up to be one of the most sought after classes since the summer of 2010 when LeBron James decided to take his talents to South Beach
By the time the 2021 offseason rolls around the Spurs will have tons of cap space available as Dejounte Murray ($15.4 million) is the only player currently set to make more than $10 million. San Antonio will be able to evaluate which free agents best fit with their organization and make a run at signing them.
If the Spurs rebuild it will be a quick one and it’s impossible to count them out of the division after such an extended run of excellence, and one of the best front offices and coaches in NBA history.
Houston Rockets
While they don’t have a two decade playoff run like San Antonio, the Rockets have made the playoffs for seven straight seasons and look like to have a path towards a decade straight over the next couple years.
This team is lead by MVP candidate, James Harden, who is only 30 years old and seems to be getting better each year.
While the Rockets have the second oldest roster in the NBA at 29.3 years old, that’s expected for a team that’s trying to contend for a championship. The other teams near Houston in average age are Milwaukee (29.4), the Lakers (29.2) and the Clippers (27.5) all of these teams are in the top six teams in terms of championship odds.
Houston is one of the more difficult teams to project how they will approach this coming offseason, while their top six players are all signed through 2020-21 each of those contracts becomes more expensive. With the uncertainty around the salary cap for next season, Houston may be forced to offload some of those players to avoid a huge luxury tax bill.
On top of having a very expensive roster, the Rockets are also on the edge of roster building and playing style in the NBA. After dealing Clint Capela at the trade deadline in a four team swap that brought Robert Covington to Houston, the Rockets almost exclusively played small ball lineups.
Russell Westbrook was the de facto center on offense, scoring more points in the paint after the trade and giving more driving space for the players on the floor. After the trade P.J. Tucker assumed the role of defensive center and the team got off to a hot start after the trade, if only to back down to Earth before the suspension of the season.
Of all the teams in the division Houston has the player with the most Win Shares, James Harden, which makes sense considering his usage rate is 36.4% Harden’s 11.5 WS dwarf the next closest, Westbrook, who has just 4.3 WS.
It is important to remember Covington only played in 14 games this season and has long held the reputation as one of the better defenders in the league.
Houston may not have the infusion of young talent that each of the other teams in the division do but they have two former MVP’s on their roster and one of the most aggressive and forward thinking front offices in the NBA.
Their window is closing but they will be in the hunt for titles for the foreseeable future.