The New Orleans Pelicans had one of the best attacks in the league last year. Now, the offense is petering out. What happened?
The New Orleans Pelicans have lost twice in a row for the first time this season after a 111-110 defeat to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.
It was a disheartening loss for the Pelicans and, frankly, an avoidable one against a team that will likely end up with one of the worst records in the NBA. The Pelicans held their opponents to less than 100 points thrice over the first five games of the season. New Orleans’ opponents have now scored over 110 points in the last three games, a worrying setback for Stan Van Gundy.
But while the defense has at least shown potential at times this season, the same cannot be said for the offense.
The Pelicans currently score the sixth-least points in the league, flanked by the likes of the Thunder, the Charlotte Hornets, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the New York Knicks—all widely expected to be lottery teams, not playoff teams. The Pelicans are also the second-worst three-point shooting team in the league, only behind the Cavs by a measly decimal.
New Orleans’ crawling offense is a stark contrast to last season’s offensive firepower under Alvin Gentry. The Pelicans were third in the league in pace—a good decision given the array of savvy open court players—and ninth in three-point attempt rate, the statistic which looks at how many of a team’s shots come from deep. Although Gentry’s iterations of the Pelicans had flaws, they played to the roster’s strengths and appreciated the most valuable shot in basketball.
Now, the Pelicans are the seventh slowest team in the NBA and their quantity of three-pointers has also crashed. The explanation for this is Van Gundy’s logical focus on defense, but a balance has to be struck.
Lack of spacing is killing the New Orleans Pelicans’ chances of having a functional offense
It’s too early in the season to decisively conclude that the Pelicans’ offense is irreversibly bad, but it’s not too early to be concerned. New Orleans objectively lacks optimal spacing. Only three players on the team are shooting above 30 percent from beyond the arc: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Eric Bledsoe.
Ball, who leads the Pelicans in three-point attempts, is a career 34 percent shooter from outside. He has improved his mechanics, but they are still unproven. Bledsoe has made 38 percent of his threes, but history indicates that his shooting will regress. He is also unlikely to figure in the Pelicans’ long-term future and was on the bench down the stretch against Oklahoma City.
That leaves Brandon Ingram, whose three-point shooting is most likely real based on last season’s numbers and this season’s performances. He is the Pelicans’ only current real threat from outside, and that is a problem.
Looking at the New Orleans roster before the start of the season, one would have pointed to JJ Redick as the Pelicans’ purveyor of outside shooting. However, he is shooting under 25 percent from three to start the season. Since establishing himself in the NBA, Redick has never played fewer minutes or taken fewer threes.
Like Bledsoe, history is also an indicator for Redick. It is incredibly unlikely that his shooting slump will continue for the rest of the season; if it does, he is not an asset to the Pelicans. Redick only played eight minutes against the Thunder because of a knee contusion, but his season-high 33 minutes in an overtime loss against Indiana were inexplicable considering his ongoing shooting woes, marginal playmaking, and defensive struggles.
The Pelicans’ other theoretical shooters don’t provide much respite. Josh Hart has been massively valuable to New Orleans because of his flexibility, but he is down to 29 percent from beyond the arc. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is getting more run, but he is shooting 27 percent from three. Nicolò Melli has been banished to the shadow realm and, on the rare occasion in which he plays, opponents might as well ignore him.
The New Orleans Pelicans lack offensive creativity under Stan Van Gundy
Van Gundy has awakened New Orleans’ defense, even if it still snoozes off here and there, but he has not found an effective offensive groove.
To say the Pelicans lack an identity on attack would be misleading because they absolutely have one. It just has no creativity currently. More often than not, an offensive possession for the Pels devolves into pick-and-roll action with Ingram handling the ball and Steven Adams screening for him. Sometimes, Zion Williamson might get to face-up his defender and try to make something happen.
The Pelicans’ offensive limitations due to bad spacing are natural, but the unimaginativeness is harder to explain. Van Gundy has a legit NBA primary option (Ingram), a once-in-a-generation prospect (Williamson), one of the league’s most inventive passers (Ball), and an all-time great shooter (Redick). Ingram aside, it’s tough to argue that anyone else’s skillset has been maximized.
Ball operates for long stretches essentially as a spot-up shooter, Redick has played poorly (something which Van Gundy has admitted is due to coaching decisions), and Williamson is basically relegated to always creating his own offense in the post. These are all baffling decisions.
I agree with what Van Gundy’s use of Ball implies: he should not be used primarily as a half-court point guard. His best stretch of basketball is still arguably at UCLA where he was used alongside other ballhandlers, but Ball then was a strong cutter and an incredible transition threat—not someone who sits idly on the corner or the wing waiting for the ball to reach him. Ball is one of the players most affected by the Pelicans’ snail-slow pace.
Redick arrived in New Orleans after a great stint for the Philadelphia 76ers where he had one of the best two-man games in the league with Joel Embiid. Van Gundy is yet to run those types of plays for him this year. Redick has the ability to either kickstart one of the worst benches in the league or add much-needed spacing to the starting five.
Finally, Williamson’s unique skillset is wasted when he is used as a one-dimensional player. Williamson is a menace getting downhill. His rolling gravity can produce the spacing the Pelicans so sorely need. He is much more fluid with the ball than his stocky build suggests. There are myriad ways to use him far more imaginatively than how Van Gundy has.
Van Gundy needs to get the Pelicans firing on offense again to make a real playoff push. There are decisive Western Conference games against top-tier opponents towards the end of January. The Pelicans must polish their attack and look improved by the time those games arrive.