The New Orleans Pelicans have been wildly inconsistent this season, but that doesn’t mean bettors should stay away when they play the Denver Nuggets today.
The Pelicans are 5.5 point underdogs in this game, but given how they have played this season, you’d have to have a lot of faith to bet the Pelicans to win.
Of course, they have played better against good teams, so if you like the Pels in this one, just bet the money line, as they have not been involved in many close games this season and will be more likely to blow the Nuggets out or get blown out than play a tight one.
The Pelicans’ inconsistency has made betting on the outcome of the game hard but there are still a number of bets in this one that I like.
Remember, I am not a professional, so take this advice with a massive grain of salt and always bet responsibly.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets: The combined score will be less than 234
This is probably the first time I have made this bet all season, as the Pelicans’ defense is so bad and offense so good that betting the over is almost always the way to go.
On paper, it would seem to be the same in this one, as the Nuggets are just the 14th ranked defense and the Pels are near the bottom of the NBA at 28th.
But they only let up a combined 226 on average so 234 seems a bit high, even for two defenses that are not great.
I could regret this one, but for the first time this season I am betting on the Pelicans’ defense to be less terrible than normal. Wish me luck on that one.
Pelicans vs. Nuggets: Nikola Jokic will have fewer than 11 rebounds
Jokic averages 11.2 rebounds on the season, so you’d be betting against his average, but the Pels are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA and they will make keeping Jokic off the glass a priority.
He will also try to pull Steven Adams away from the basket, which could keep him away from the offensive boards and Adams will be doing everything in his power to get on the glass himself.
If they can keep Jokic from going crazy on the boards, they will have a chance in this one.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray will have two or more steals
The Pelicans have improved their turnovers somewhat from last season, though they are still pretty bad in that department, averaging 14.2 per game.
Couple that with Murray’s ability to get into the passing lane for steals, and you have the makings of a value bet.
Murray only averages 1.3 steals per game but could have a big night defensively against the Pelicans, who are prone to cough it up.
The New Orleans Pelicans are a tough team to gauge and could be buyers or sellers at the deadline depending on your perspective.
These last two games before the deadline will tell us a lot, starting today vs. Denver.
*All odds and bets provided by the Action Network