The New Orleans Pelicans did not trade Lonzo Ball, which was not completely surprising.
I predicted this trade deadline would be a quiet one for the Pelicans for several reasons, mostly that the market for Eric Bledsoe never developed and that the Pels weren’t going to accept a lowball offer for Lonzo Ball.
Every team from the Bulls to the Clippers were rumored to have interest in Ball, but the Pelicans never gave any indication that they came close to trading him.
Lonzo Ball will be a Pelican for the rest of the season, but what will happen when the season is over?
Not re-signing Lonzo in the offseason and then failing to trade him carries some risk, as he is a restricted free agent, but the Pels still have options.
New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans can re-sign Lonzo Ball
The most obvious option is just to re-sign Lonzo Ball to a max, or near-max deal at the end of the season.
The Pels hold Lonzo’s Bird Rights, so they can offer one more year than any other suitor, which will give them some advantage in the market for his services.
The Pelicans must have some idea of what it will take to retain him and must be comfortable with that number, otherwise we almost certainly would have seen him traded before the deadline.
Is Lonzo Ball worth $20 million a season? That is likely what it is going to take to retain him because some team like the Bulls is going to come with a big poison-pill offer that the Pels will have to match.
The New Orleans Pelicans will be in the driver’s seat when it comes to re-signing Lonzo Ball but they still have some other options if the two sides cannot come to an agreement on a contract.
New Orleans Pelicans: The Pels could sign and trade Lonzo Ball
A second option would be to orchestrate a sign-and-trade for Lonzo Ball that would allow him to get his max deal and the Pels to get some value for him.
Sign-and-trades are not that common, mostly because the free agent and the team that wants him have all of the leverage and have absolutely no reason to help the New Orleans Pelicans get value for their guy.
Why would a team give up players for a guy they could realistically just get in free agency? This only works if Lonzo makes getting that 5th year a priority and uses it as leverage in negotiations. Lonzo could potentially get his max deal but also get to another team if that is his goal.
The other problem is that no team is going to offer full value for a guy who wants to leave the team that he’s on, which is how leverage works. The Pels would end up taking a lowball offer that they could have just taken at the trade deadline.
The sign-and-trade is an option, though an unlikely one. It would be more likely that the Pelicans would extend Lonzo and them move him at a future time if they think it is not working out. He is only 23-years-old, so it wouldn’t be a huge risk to sign him to a max deal.
As the trade deadline showed, there are plenty of teams interested in Lonzo Ball, so the Pels can likely still trade him and get more if they wait until next season or beyond.
There is a third option that would be the worst-case scenario.
New Orleans Pelicans: Lonzo Ball could walk for nothing
The third and least appealing option is that Lonzo Ball simply walks in free agency and the Pelicans get nothing.
He would have to leave some amount of money on the table for this to happen, as the Pels can always match or exceed any offer for him, but Lonzo is already rich, has plenty of off-the-court money coming in and could just take less to go to the team he really wants to play for.
There is also a chance that Lonzo doesn’t care about the extra year, as signing a shorter contract makes some sense given his age. If Lonzo were to sign a three or four year deal, he could hit free agency again in his prime and probably get a massive payday, especially if he keeps improving.
Lonzo may prefer to hit free agency at 26 rather than at age 28, so the Pels might not have a ton of leverage when it comes to holding his Bird Rights.
Of course, Lonzo seems happy in New Orleans and if he sees this as a sign of confidence from the organization, then he may be satisfied taking a big contract and being part of the future with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
But if he is unhappy in this role, he could just take a 3-year deal from the Knicks or Bulls for more annual salary and hit free agency again while he is still young and in his prime.
Fans would lose their minds and call for David Griffin’s head if this happens, but in reality, the Pelicans would still pick up an $11 million cap slot, which may be more valuable to them than Lonzo.
If he walks, it won’t be for “nothing” but that’s how fans would see it.
The New Orleans Pelicans took a calculated risk by not re-signing or trading Lonzo Ball and could end up losing him and the faith of the fans in the process.