New Orleans Pelicans: Playoff and lottery odds for the Pels

The New Orleans Pelicans have been a frustrating team this season, at times looking like a playoff team and at others looking like they should be back in the lottery.

I wrote yesterday that the Pels’ fanbase is very angry, and though I don’t necessarily agree with the vitriol, I totally get the frustration.

The Pelicans have been treading water in the purgatory between the playoffs and lottery all season, which is not where you want to be.

If this team was just bad, I think fans would embrace the rebuild and look forward to the NBA Draft, but they are just good enough to spark hope, just not good enough to turn that hope into a long stretch of winning.

The Pelicans have beaten the best teams in the NBA but have lost to the worst ones, which has been their undoing, but they still have a puncher’s chance of getting to the play-in games.

New Orleans Pelicans: What are the Pelicans’ playoff odds?

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Pelicans have a three percent chance of making the playoffs.

The only things keeping them alive are the possibility of the play-in tournament and the fact that they still have three games left against the Warriors, the team directly above them in the standings who currently holds the 10th and final spot.

If you are not familiar with the new playoff format, here is a primer from NBA.com:

"“At the conclusion of the regular season but before the first round of the playoffs, the team with the 7th-highest winning percentage in each conference will host the team with the 8th-highest winning percentage in a Play-In Game (the “Seven-Eight Game”). The winner of the Seven-Eight Game in each conference will earn the No. 7 seed.The team with the 9th-highest winning percentage in each conference will host the team with the 10th-highest winning percentage in the “Nine-Ten Game”. The loser of the Seven-Eight Game will host the winner of the Nine-Ten Game in a Play-In Game, and the winner of that game in each conference will earn the No. 8 seed.”"

“So you’re saying there’s a chance?” Yep, and there is also a chance I will win the PowerBall tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans: What are the Pelicans’ lottery odds?

A much-more likely scenario is that the Pelicans end up choosing near the back end of the lottery in the next NBA Draft. The Pelicans are currently tied for the 10th-worst record in the NBA and have a 11.7 percent chance of jumping into the top-four.

They have a 2.5 percent chance at the number one pick overall, so odds are the New Orleans Pelicans will be choosing somewhere in the 9-12 range in the lottery.

This isn’t great either, which shows you why some teams choose to tank once they realize the playoffs are out of reach.

This is the position no NBA team wants to be in, as the Pels are unlikely to make the playoffs and have little chance of a top pick as a reward for a losing season.

But the Pels’ young guys are getting quality reps, learning the game and will hopefully bring those improvements into next season, when fans will be focused on and expecting a run at the playoffs.