The New Orleans Pelicans are going to have a busy offseason.
Not only do they have five picks in the upcoming NBA Draft, but they have a number of decisions to make about their own free agents.
The Pelicans will have four players in some stage of free agency and could decide not to bring some of them back.
These are key choices, as they are trying to build around Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and don’t have a lot of cap space or time to waste on guys who are not good fits.
Here are the four Pelicans’ free agents and the odds that the team will bring them back.
New Orleans Pelicans free agents: James Johnson
Johnson has been a pleasant surprise since coming over from Dallas in the J.J. Redick trade.
He has played more and better than Redick since the trade and Pels’ fans were happy to see a guy who actually contributed something other than whining on a podcast.
Johnson has played good defense and has flashed much better scoring and playmaking than I thought he had. He went from an afterthought in a low-stakes trade to a guy who could be part of the rotation next season.
The New Orleans Pelicans need veterans with some toughness who can play defense and Johnson ticks all of those boxes.
The Pels would probably love to bring him back on a veteran’s minimum deal, but Johnson might be able to get more from another team.
It will really just come down to contract, as the fit is there.
Odds of re-signing James Johnson: 75 percent
New Orleans Pelicans free agents: Willy Hernangomez
Willy Hernangomez took a calculated risk when he signed with the New Orleans Pelicans for the veteran’s minimum.
He was third in line for minutes and it looked like a waste of a roster spot early in the season. But poor play from Jaxson Hayes and injuries to Steven Adams thrust Hernangomez into a more prominent role and he made the most of it.
He has averaged 7.5 points and seven rebounds per game in a backup role and has proven himself to be a reliable big man who can defend, rebound and score around the hoop. He turned out to be a great value signing for the New Orleans Pelicans.
However, Hernangomez might have played well enough to price himself out of the “third center” tier and into a primary backup’s contract.
If so, the Pelicans might not be able to pay him as they already have too much money tied up in the center position. The improvement of Jaxson Hayes and the contract of Steven Adams have made re-signing Hernagomez problematic.
If the Pels can get him on another veteran’s minimum deal, then they will jump at it, but something tells me someone is going to offer him a contract more in line with a backup center, so he’ll be priced out of the Pels’ range.
Chance of re-signing Willy Hernangomez: 25 percent
New Orleans Pelicans free agents: Josh Hart
Josh Hart is another Pelicans’ free agent who is going to get a raise, and in his case, it could be a substantial one.
His late-season injury could have hurt his value some, but I think there will be a fairly robust market for his services, as he has has proven himself to be a versatile defender and the best rebounding guard in the NBA.
Signing Josh Hart is tricky, as the Pels first have to make a decision on Lonzo Ball and some other team might move on Josh Hart before that happens.
I could definitely see a team like the Detroit Pistons giving Hart an offer sheet, so the Pelicans may have to decide if they want to match a salary in the $10-18 million per year range (yes, the range is that big for Hart) or to let the heart and soul of their team walk for nothing.
It may come down to whether the Pels want to keep Lonzo Ball or Hart, and whether they think NAW is ready to take over as the starter.
The Pelicans would love to have Hart back but may not be willing or able to match a salary if some team decides to pay big bucks for him.
I think this one is 50/50 and will rely heavily on the next guy.
Chance of re-signing Josh Hart: 50 percent
New Orleans Pelicans free agents: Lonzo Ball
This is the biggest decision that David Griffin has had to make in his short tenure as VP of Basketball Operations for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Give Lonzo Ball the max and he continues to be inconsistent and fairly average and it could set this team way back and hurt their chances of keeping Zion Williamson for the long term.
Let him walk and he blows up somewhere else and the Pelicans wasted a big chunk of the Anthony Davis haul and let a future All-Star leave for nothing.
Lonzo was all over the place down the stretch, having some monster games, then disappearing in the next one, then getting hurt yet again.
It’s fair to ask how his late-season injuries and inconsistency have affected his value to the Pelicans and other teams.
Have the Pelicans seen enough to pay Lonzo Ball $20 million per season? I am not sure, and to be honest, I don’t think they are either.
Part of me thinks Griffin is probably praying that some other team like the Knicks or Bulls makes a ridiculously high offer for Ball so that he can walk away without taking grief from the fans, but if someone else offers him around $18-20 million per season it is going to be a much-tougher choice.
I’ve gone back and forth on this one all season and am still not sure what the Pelicans will do but I am leaning towards both sides coming to a mutually beneficial agreement on a contract that is short and gives Lonzo Ball another chance to cash-in in his prime.
Chance of re-signing Lonzo Ball: 65 percent