Pelicans schedule: Breaking down the projected wins and losses

The NBA schedule was released Friday afternoon. Time to take a look at what awaits the Pelicans throughout the season.

Fans of the New Orleans Pelicans can plan their trips to the Smoothie King Center or pick out which games are must watch from the couch; the schedule has finally been released! I find it hard to believe anyone reading this piece hasn’t already seen the schedule but just in case, here’s a link to the teams’ site.

I’m not writing this to talk about how many national tv games the Pels are getting versus what we fans want. I’m more than happy to watch the local broadcast featuring Joel Myers, Antonio Daniels, and Jen Hale (I’d rather they do all the Pels games). This piece is about drawing a base win-loss record for the upcoming season based on how the schedule breaks down.

One thing to note is we had another shortened offseason. For a league that’s so focused on resting players, teams that didn’t make a deep run in the playoffs may have an advantage here. But we’re back to starting the season at the traditional time, the 2019-20 season tipped off for the Pels on October 17th, this year the Pels first game is October 19th.

The first thing to look at when trying to determine wins and losses for the season is the number of back-to-backs a team has. The Pels are in decent shape in this regard, there are 12 back-to-backs on their schedule. Below is a table of the back-to-backs facing the Pels this season.

That’s twelve losses on the schedule before the season even tips off. The game against Chicago is the second game of the season, meaning the Pels will hit that gauntlet right out of the gate. Just because the Pels get hit with the back-to-back at the earliest possible time doesn’t mean they get much relief after. Half of the back-to-backs come before the calendar even flips to December. The good news is the remaining six instances are spread out over four months.

New Orleans Pelicans schedule: Opponents on a back-to-back

The second piece to look at when predicting wins and losses just from the dates of games played is how many times the Pelicans catch an opponent on the second night of their own back-to-back. New Orleans gets some luck here, the Pels will be the second opponent of a back-to-back 16 times. The scheduling Gods were kind the Crescent City in this regard. Below is a table like the one before but for the Pels opponents.

That’s 16 expected wins against teams that will be tired from the night before. The busiest stretch for the Pels comes in November. They catch six opponents on the back half during that month, more than a third of the Pels opportunities in one month. Interestingly the Pels face a third of their own back-to-backs in November as well.

New Orleans Pelicans schedule: The toss ups

Now for the tricky part. Are there any instances where both New Orleans and their opponent are facing the second night at the same time? The easiest example (no surprise) comes in November, the Pels and Jazz play on the 26th and 27th in Utah. In what has become a fun matchup we’ll be treated to two games in two nights. Not much time for any hard feelings to soften.

There are five times where both the Pels and their opponent will play a game having just played the night before, mostly in November. The dates of those games are below.

The outcome of these games is hard to predict as I’m almost guaranteeing a loss if a team is on the second night of a back-to-back. I’m of the belief that depth will be the deciding factor in deciding these games. This could be good news for a Pels team that looks a good bit deeper than last season. Looking at the rosters as they stand right now, the Pels have a real shot to go 4-1 (loss to Utah) in these games, the Warriors game could change that (if Klay is healthy).

Taking all these back-to-backs into account the Pels are looking at a 15-8 record just based on how the calendar works. That’s the best-case scenario, as undoubtedly the Pels will win a game they’re not supposed to and lose a game they should win. That’s why you play the games.

One last thing to bring to your attention is how many times the Pels play three games in four nights. Once the NBA did away with four games in five nights for the 2017-18 season, fans were expecting to see their favorite players play in more games. To some extent that has happened but with the rise in load management some players are still taking time off in the season.

Resting players comes in a couple of different forms. Most clearly is just sitting a player for a game but the more used method is to reduce the number of minutes a player gets over a few games. While going from 36 minutes to 28 or 30 may not seem like a big deal (what’s six minutes matter in the grand scheme?), by dropping minutes for a few games a player can almost take off an extra game or two over the course of a season.

I counted 12 occurrences of the Pels playing three games in four nights. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise that the number of back-to-backs the Pels face matches the three-in-four number. A team typically plays every two or three nights and a back-to-back just bunches up the schedule. If the Pels look a little sluggish or play fewer than average minutes during these stretches just remember to look at the schedule and see what the previous couple of days looked like.

All told the Pels should be fighting for a play-in spot at the least and most fans would be more than a little disappointed if the team finished closer to tenth than sixth in the Western Conference. Based on the schedule and team’s rosters right now the Pels are in good shape. If the good vibes from Summer League carry over to the regular season, the NBA needs to be on notice. These aren’t AD’s Pelicans anymore.