Trick or treat? Which Pelicans will show up vs. Nuggets? Odds and bets

The New Orleans Pelicans will try to get their momentum back tonight at home vs. the Nuggets after losing a disappointing game against the Rockets.

The Pelicans have been one of the great “trick or treat” teams this season, as they look fantastic some nights, as they did in their wins over the Clippers and Mavericks, but look terrible in others.

The Pelicans have beaten only good (or good-ish in Minnesota’s case) teams in their seven wins but have five losses against some of the worst teams in the NBA.

This has made them difficult to bet, though some trends are worth mentioning.

So which team is going to show up tonight against the Nuggets? Here are the odds and some bets to consider.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets: Odds, spread, over/under

According to WynnBET, the Pelicans are two point underdogs at home against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are one of the few teams who has had worse injury problems than the Pelicans, as they haven’t had Jamal Murray yet this season and Michael Porter Jr. is now out for the season.

This shows you how good MVP Nikola Jokic really is, as he still has the Nuggets in the 8th seed even with all of the injuries. The Nuggets have not yet submitted their injury report, but Jokic is listed as day-to-day and expected to play. Bones Hyland and Austin Rivers have been in health protocol but always check the official injury report before game time because Hyland might be back.

The Nuggets have been sliding lately, winners of just 2-of-10 after going through a brutal stretch of the schedule. Most of their losses were to good teams but they did lose to Orlando, so I think New Orleans matches up well against this shorthanded Nuggets team right now.

One trend to mention is that the Pelicans are just 11-15 against the spread this season, but they are 6-5 at home.

The money lines are -140 for the Nuggets and +120 for the Pelicans. If you think the “treat” Pels are going to respond behind coach Willie Green after a disappointing loss, then take them to win tonight, but if you think the “trick” Pels will show up avoid this altogether as two points is basically the books saying it’s a toss-up.

The over/under is 214 and here is another trend to potentially exploit. The Pels are just 9-16-1 against the over/under this season and 5-6 at home. These two teams average 207 points per game combined and allow 214 combined, so I’d probably split the difference and take the under with Pelicans winning 110-100.

How to watch

The Pelicans will tip-off vs. the Nuggets at 7:00 PM CT and you can watch it on Bally Sports New Orleans or list on ESPN 100.3 FM.