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By Joe Summers
After a 121-109 loss to the Grizzlies, the 23-35 new-look New Orleans Pelicans host the 34-24 Dallas Mavericks tonight at 8:00 PM EST. WynnBET has New Orleans as 3-point underdogs and +120 on the moneyline (bet $10 to profit $12) while the over/under is set at 217 for this Pelicans vs Mavericks matchup.
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This is how we’re betting this game:
Pelicans vs Mavericks Prediction
The Pelicans are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine and have looked like a solid team since adding C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. Between McCollum, star Brandon Ingram, defensive savant Herbert Jones and solid contributors like Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte’ Graham, New Orleans has a good nucleus of players to build from.
They’re not the only team that made adjustments at the deadline, however, as the Mavericks pushed their chips fully into Luka Doncic’s corner by trading away Kristaps Porzingis. Luka looks reinvigorating and Dallas is rolling, winning and covering the spread in four of their last five.
The Mavericks are the 6th-best defensive rating in the NBA this season, and if they embrace a floor-spacing offense and let Luka go to work they are going to be a nightmare for opponents to handle.
I do think it may take some time for the roster to fully gel, especially since Spencer Dinwiddie still isn’t playing. So instead of laying the points, I’ll look to the total instead.
The under is 8-3 in the Pelicans’ last 11 games and 28-15-1 when they’re an underdog. Meanwhile, the under is also 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last six and 22-10-1 when they’re a favorite.
I think we see these trends continue tonight and am taking the under 217 (-110) as my best bet in this one.
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