The odds that the New Orleans Pelicans keep their draft pick

The end of the 2021-22 season is going to be interesting for the New Orleans Pelicans for a lot of reasons.

They are battling for a spot in the play-in tournament, while also battling to get healthy, as Zion Williamson still hasn’t played (though has started light basketball activities) and Brandon Ingram has also had to miss significant time with myriad injuries this season.

Can the Pels get back to full strength, make the play-in tournament and maybe play their way into the playoffs?

There is also the matter of the NBA Draft, as the Pelicans are only partially in control of whether they keep their pick.

New Orleans is owed a pick from the Los Angeles Lakers, and they will get to keep it if it falls into the top-10 of the NBA Draft. If it is 11 or lower, it goes to the Memphis Grizzlies, so the Pelicans are obviously very interested in what happens with the slumping Lakers.

As of right now, the Lakers are outside of the top-10, but would still have a chance to jump up if the lottery balls worked in the Pelicans’ favor.

Here are the Pelicans’ lottery odds as of today.

New Orleans Pelicans lottery odds

Here are the Lakers’ odds if they finish in the 11th position that they are in right now:

• #1-1.8%
• #2-2.0%
• #3-2.2%
• #4-2.5%
• #11-77.6%
• #12-13.5%
• #13-0.5%

Since the Pelicans would only get to keep the pick if it were in the top-10, there is currently an 8.5 percent chance of them keeping their pick, so pretty long odds.

If the Pelicans were to take over the 9th spot, or the Lakers fell out of the play-in altogether (unlikely), New Orleans’ odds would increase significantly.

This makes the two remaining games against the Lakers that much more important, as the Pelicans are not only chasing them in the standings but have their NBA Draft fate directly tied to the Lakers losing games.

The Grizzlies will keeping a close eye on this as well, as they could end up with a lottery pick from the Jonas Valanciunas deal if the Lakers’ pick falls outside of the top-10 of the Draft.

Stay tuned. It may be a losing season but there is potential for a wild ending.