The New Orleans Pelicans will face the San Antonio Spurs in a do-or-die game at Smoothie King Center on Wednesday night.
On paper, this looks like one the Pelicans should win, as they are at home and have an advantage when it comes to top-end talent and playoff experience.
But the Spurs have beaten the Pelicans three out four times this season, and even though their rotation features mostly young, inexperienced players, they are being led by one of the greatest coaches of all time and you can never underestimate them.
Coach Willie Green has to decide whether to tighten his rotation or go with the 10-man group that got them this far, which would be CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Jaxson Hayes, Jonas Valanciunas, Devonte’ Graham, Larry Nance Jr., Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III and Naji Marshall.
If he does shorten the bench for the post season, who is going to be left out?
Pelicans lineups vs. Spurs: 9 or 10-man rotation?
Obviously, the Pelicans are going to go with the same starting five they’ve been using since trading for CJ McCollum:
- CJ McCollum
- Brandon Ingram
- Herb Jones
- Jaxson Hayes
- Jonas Valanciunas
The Spurs go small and use Keldon Johnson as a power forward at times, so this is a tricky matchup for the Pelicans, who will need Jaxson Hayes to step out on the perimeter and get a hand in his face, as Johnson hits nearly 40 percent from long range.
But the Pelicans should have an advantage the other end and can hopefully dominate the boards against the smaller Spurs’ starting five.
The real issue is going to be stopping Dejounte Murray, as he has torched the Pelicans in the past and is going to be a handful for McCollum, who is not the best defender. The Pelicans will likely put Herb Jones on Murray and put CJ on Joshua Primo who is bigger but not nearly as good offensively as Murray.
We could also see a heavier dose of Jose Alvarado in this game, which would limit Devonte’ Graham’s minutes. The Pels need someone to consistently stop Murray from getting wherever he wants to in the lane, and Alvarado probably has the best chance to do it.
He also matches up well with backup point guard Tre Jones and has played well in three of the games against the Spurs this year, so I think we could see plenty of Jose and less of Devonte’.
I don’t think we’ll see much of Trey Murphy III or Naji Marshall in this one, as the starters are going to play big minutes and they need guys who can stop the quick Spurs’ guards.
In the end, I do think the Pels will use their 10-man rotation but the bench minutes will be limited:
- CJ McCollum (38-40 minutes)/Jose Alvarado (18-20 minutes)
- Brandon Ingram (35-38 minutes(/Devonte’ Graham (5-8 minutes)
- Herb Jones (35-38 minutes)/Trey Murphy III (8-10 minutes)
- Jaxson Hayes (25-28 minutes)/Larry Nance Jr. (18-20 minutes)/Naji Marshall (5-8 minutes)
- Jonas Valanciunas (35-38 minutes)
The Pels are going to rely heavily on their starters as they have all season, so let’s hope all of them are full strength going into Wednesday because it’s going to be a battle against a young, spirited and well-coached Spurs team.