The New Orleans Pelicans are scrambling, now 2-3 after a three-game skid. Normally, this record would hardly be a reason for panic, but the way that the Pels have gotten here has been justifiably alarming.
They've now been blown on in three straight games they should have won against lesser opponents, one against the rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers and two against a Golden State Warriors team sans Stephen Curry. In one of their losses against the Dubs, they also built a 20-point first-half lead just to watch it evaporate before flipping into a 20-point deficit.
New Orleans has dealt with their own injuries, arguably the most hurt team in the league so far, but these were games they were expected to win regardless of the absences. In such an uninspiring start, there's plenty of blame to go around, and no one is an exception. Herb Jones — draft steal, defensive mastermind, and rising two-way player — has been an objective detriment to the Pelicans offense for this one reason.
Herb Jones's refusal to shoot is sinking the Pelicans' title chances
The New Orleans Pelicans came into this season with a goal in mind to help themselves reach their offensive ceiling as a team. In training camp, Head Coach Willie Green outlined a mandate for them to shoot 40 triples per game. So far, the Pelicans are 27th in the NBA with an average of just 31.2 3-point attempts.
They're well below their target with every player on the team under their individual intended marks as well. The Pelicans' most active deep shooters are CJ McCollum with 8.5 3-point attempts per game, Jordan Hawkins at 6.4, and Brandon Ingram with 5.8. Everyone else is below four triples a night.
Practically every Pelican has taken a step back in their 3-point volume, but one of the worst culprits has been Herb Jones who's gone from 3.6 trey-balls in 2023-24 to just 2.8 so far this year. While that's not an insanely steep drop-off, Herb was expected to increase his shot diet from beyond the arc this season, but the exact opposite is happening instead.
Herb hit nearly 42 percent from deep last year, indicating that he was a much more capable shooter than originally advertised. The thought of him becoming a high-volume sniper made Pelicans salivate, as his becoming an elite floor-spacer would have significantly raised both his ceiling and the team's. So far this year, he's hitting just 18 percent from three on a reduced volume.
This year, the Pelicans have been forced to play small due to their unreliable center rotation. Normally, when teams go small, they try to overwhelm opposing traditional lineups with their speed and shooting. Jones has been the "center" in most of New Orleans's small-ball looks. His hesitancy to launch from deep has negated any possible advantages the Pelicans could have while playing small, leaving them at a severe size disadvantage with nothing to counter the imbalance.
Defenses have been borderline ignoring Jones and treating him as a non-threat on offense, and for good reason. Through four games, he's averaging just 8.6 points per 36 minutes on 48/18/50 shooting splits. Head Coach Willie Green has tried different tactics to try to maximize Herb's effectiveness on offense, including sticking him in the dunker spot and using him as a screener, but the bottom line is that Jones has no gravity as an attacker, because defenses have no worry that he'll beat them.
Teams do not care to guard Herb right now at all. Put Pods on him to hide and even he didn't really care. Zion off ball on the same side doesn't help either - Draymond will pay him no mind https://t.co/I2Zhw4im0V
— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) October 30, 2024
There's a domino effect from Jones's offensive inefficacy and hesitation. Because defenses don't fear him, opposing players can sag off of him and provide preemptive help, quick rotations, and even double-teams without worry that he'll make them pay. That makes life exponentially harder for players like Zion and Ingram to try to generate offense on drives. It also makes the Pelicans' small-ball lineups an immediate net loss, with New Orleans conceding size, defense, and rebounding with no benefits in return. If he continues playing this way, the Pelicans have absolutely no shot to compete for a title, regardless of how great he is on defense.