Luck was not on the New Orleans Pelicans' side during the 2025 NBA draft lottery. They fell three spots in the order, landing at No. 7 overall. Fortunately for them, they may just be more fortunate during the sort-of-already-started Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
And they have the Jrue Holiday trade to thank.
New Orleans has control of Milwaukee's next two first-round picks
As a result of that blockbuster deal from nearly five years ago, the Pelicans have the right to swap first-round picks with the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2026 draft. The following year, in 2027, they own Milwaukee's pick outright, without any protections.
Those selections become prime assets if Giannis is no longer on the Bucks. And it's starting to sound like he won't be. ESPN's Shams Charania reports that "for the first time in his career, Antetokounmpo is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit" involves playing elsewhere. That isn't quite a trade demand, but it's pretty darn close, suggesting that an official one is inevitable.
Flipping a superstar is always complicated. It is even more complex for the Bucks. They do not control the rights to their own first-round pick until 2031. That makes rebuilding through traditional means (i.e. tanking) patently prohibitive. There is no value in Milwaukee loading up on losses when other teams benefit from their lottery odds.
This is where the Pelicans come into play. Though they are not being mentioned among the suitors for Giannis, teams that enter the sweepstakes should be blowing up lead executive Joe Dumars' phone, email, Signal app, and private Slack room. Any offer that gives Milwaukee control over its next two first-rounders will hold a metric ton more appeal compared to packages that do not.
There is no overstating the importance of those selections to the Bucks. It gives them the freedom to rebuild, somewhat gradually, in the aftermath of a Giannis exit that now seems unavoidable. Losing a top-five star is easier to stomach when you know that you'll be in the running for a cornerstone replacement through each of the next two drafts. Plus, it's not like Milwaukee wouldn't get more on top of these selections. In a less-than-ideal reality, this is a close-to-ideal outcome.
Why the Pelicans should play ball
You might be wondering why the Pelicans would help another team acquire Antetokounmpo from the Bucks. That's fair. After all, if Milwaukee is going to be bad, New Orleans should absolutely want to retain control of those next two picks.
But there is risk in assuming that stance.
The complexion of a Giannis trade will almost assuredly look much different if the Bucks are not regaining the rights to their own draft picks. Faced with that scenario, they may opt against moving him altogether. And failing that, they might be compelled to accept a return for him focused on players who keep them more competitive in the near term, since they do not have the ability to rebuild using their own draft picks.
Either outcome will be a blow to the value of the first-rounders controlled by the Pelicans. They stand to benefit more by ransoming out teams slated to enter the running for Giannis.
Could New Orleans get Dereck Lively and the Dallas Mavericks' 2031 first in exchange for rerouting the Bucks' picks back to Milwaukee? How many first-rounders could they get out of the San Antonio Spurs for helping them pair Giannis with Victor Wembanyama? Would the Oklahoma City Thunder send them multiple firsts, and a young player to boot? Might the Houston Rockets do the same?
Sure, the Pelians can hold onto these selections, and continue to short the Bucks' future. That is more than justifiable under the circumstances. But unless they plan on entering the running for Giannis themselves, it makes sense to consider facilitating any blockbuster deal. They might just wind up stocked with even more picks and prospects if they do.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.