In the NBA, it's almost impossible to properly analyze a trade right away. As analysts and fans, we can grade a deal on the current perceived value that's being exchanged by the teams involved, but very rarely will there not be future influences that'll change the way it's viewed in retrospect.
For example, take the Los Angeles Clippers' trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder for Paul George back in 2019. At the time, everyone knew that LA was giving up a lot, considering that they sent five first-round picks and two first-round swaps to OKC. But it was understandable considering the deal not only gave the Clips Paul George but also guaranteed them Kawhi Leonard's commitment in free agency. Now, though, PG13 is long gone, and the Clippers have nothing to show for it, except their 2026 first-rounder that they still owe to the Thunder. To make matters worse, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who LA also sent to the Thunder, is now leading the number-one team in the league and well on his way to winning his first MVP award.
Clearly, that deal is viewed much differently now than how it was first received in 2019. The New Orleans Pelicans are in danger of having one of their recent trades fall apart in the same way. While not as drastically as the Clippers-Thunder trade, Dejounte Murray has a lot of work to do to justify the Pelicans trade for him with the Atlanta Hawks.
Dyson Daniels' ascension and Dejounte Murray's injuries have put the Pelicans' trade on disaster watch
In July 2024, the New Orleans Pelicans made major waves when they traded Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Larry Nance Jr., and two first-round picks to the Atlanta Hawks in return for Dejounte Murray. Their acquisition of Murray, a former All-Star point guard, was supposed to vault the Pels into dark-horse title contention this year. Unfortunately, a string of injuries cost both New Orleans and Murray practically their entire seasons.
Now, Murray shouldn't be discredited for getting injured, and his first season with the Pelicans was actually a lot better than his numbers might suggest. That said, there are several factors also out of his control that could make New Orleans's trade for him look absolutely terrible soon.
At the time of the deal, Dyson Daniels was a promising albeit underwhelming prospect. After the Pelicans drafted him eighth overall in 2022, he struggled heavily in his first two seasons. His poor outside shooting touch and loose handle made him too much of an offensive liability to keep on the floor, despite his promising flashes as a slasher, playmaker, and perimeter disrupter on defense.
This season, he took full advantage of his new opportunity in Atlanta and put together a pretty convincing campaign for the NBA's Most Improved Player award. He went from averaging just 5.8 points on 45 percent shooting from the field and 31 percent from deep in 22 minutes per game last year to 14.2 points while slashing 49/35/60 to go along with 5.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and a league-leading 3.1 steals. There's a chance that he's near his peak now, but if he continues the trajectory he showed this season, the Pelicans' decision to trade him could look extremely foolish.
On top of Daniels's ascension, the two first-round picks New Orleans sent Atlanta could end up making the trade look a lot worse, too. The Hawks will be getting the Los Angeles Lakers' pick in this upcoming draft, as well as the worse selection between New Orleans's own and the Milwaukee Bucks' first-rounder in 2027. It's not impossible that the pick they end up getting in 2027 could be a really good one.
So far, the Hawks are winning the trade by a large margin, and the draft capital they got from the Pelicans could widen the gap even further, as could Dyson Daniels if he continues to improve. Of course, all of this could become moot if Dejounte Murray comes back next season and performs to his standard. Now, the pressure's on him to justify this trade for New Orleans.