Pelica Debrief
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Best NBA prop bets today for Pelicans vs. Kings (Target Trey Murphy III)

Looking at the top prop bets to consider for the New Orleans Pelicans-Sacramento Kings matchup on Thursday. 

By Shelby Dermer

Apr 9, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Trey Murphy III (25) shoots a 3-pointer against Portland. Murphy finished with 31 points, knocking down five 3-pointers, in a 110-100 Pelicans' victory.
Apr 9, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Trey Murphy III (25) shoots a 3-pointer against Portland. Murphy finished with 31 points, knocking down five 3-pointers, in a 110-100 Pelicans' victory. / Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
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Two teams still fighting to secure an automatic playoff spot meet Thursday night when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the Sacramento Kings. Sacramento is a short favorite in a game trending toward pick ‘em and needed by each team in the final stretch of the regular season.

New Orleans currently holds the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference, but has just a half-game lead over the No. 7 Suns and two-game edge over the No. 8 Kings. 

Here are some prop bets to attack for the matchup. 

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Best NBA prop bets today for Pelicans vs. Kings

  • Trey Murphy III OVER 2.5 3-pointers 
  • Domantas Sabonis UNDER 14.5 rebounds
  • De’Aaron Fox UNDER 3.5 3-pointers 

Trey Murphy III OVER 2.5 3-pointers 

New Orleans has had to replace the production missing from Brandon Ingram’s mid-March knee injury. In 11 games since Ingram went down, Murphy has knocked down 2.8 3-pointers per game and has eclipsed this number seven times. 

Murphy hasn’t been shy to let it fly from the perimeter as the former first-round pick is attempting 8.7 triples per night since the beginning of March.

He’s coming off a 5-for-12 performance from deep (31 points) in Tuesday’s victory over Portland. Murphy now gets a matchup against a Sacramento defense that is 29th in the NBA against 3-pointers, allowing opponents to connect at a 38.8% rate on the year (39.4% at home). 

Domantas Sabonis UNDER 14.5 rebounds

These are two of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. From the Pelicans’ side, New Orleans is eighth in defensive rebounds allowed per game and eighth in offensive rebounds allowed. Sabonis is one of the best second-shot creators in the NBA as the veteran forward ranks fifth in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game (3.6). 

This number is a shade higher than Sabonis’ season-long rebounding average (13.8) and he’s fallen short of this total in eight of his last 11 games. The Pelicans have held Sabonis under this rebounding total in all four meetings this year, limiting him to 10.5 rebounds per game. 

De’Aaron Fox UNDER 3.5 3-pointers

3-point shooting  is such a crucial part to this matchup with the way these teams are built. One of the reasons New Orleans is 4-0 against Sacramento this season is the Pelicans’ perimeter prowess. New Orleans is the No. 1 team against triples this season and Sacramento is third in the NBA in triples attempted per game (39.4). 

That turns the attention to Fox, Sacramento’s most frequent shooter from beyond the arc who is 12th in the NBA in three-point attempts per game (7.9). Fox is shooting 36.7% from deep this season but has gone under this total in seven of his last 10 games. He’s gone under this total in all four meetings, combining to go 6-for-30 from the perimeter. 

Worth noting, Fox might be chased off the arc in this matchup and forced into attempts from closer range. In his last three meetings against the Pelicans, he attempted fewer 3s (six  per game) than his season average (7.9). It could be worth a look to shop around for a Fox under 2.5 3-point prop at plus-money.

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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