2 Reasons Pelicans will go over 45.5 wins, 2 reasons they won't

The New Orleans Pelicans are a hard team to gauge in this upcoming 2024-25 NBA season. They're absolutely loaded with talent. Between CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson, their top four is probably the best in the entire league.

If the NBA was four-on-four with no substitutions allowed, the Pelicans would absolutely be my favorite to win it all. But, due to their shaky depth and precarious center rotation, New Orleans isn't considered one of the top contenders, despite their top-end talent.

Currently, FanDuel has the Pelicans over/under regular season win total set at 45.5. The Vegas oddsmakers have decided that 45.5 is the most difficult number for bettors to pick against for New Orleans, and there's a reason that these sportsbooks are billion-dollar operations — they're not wrong very often.

That number has them as the projected eighth-best team in the Western Conference by FanDuel, with the Sacramento Kings (46.5), Memphis Grizzlies (46.5), Phoenix Suns (48.5), Dallas Mavericks (49.5), Denver Nuggets (50.5), Minnesota Timberwolves (51.5), and Oklahoma City Thunder (57.5) ahead of them. As intended, it's easy to see the Pelicans falling on either side of that 45.5 line for these four reasons in particular.

Will the Pelicans go over or under their 45.5 win total line?

Under: Health

Health is the most obvious reason why New Orleans won't be able to clear 45 wins next season. They're already working the injury report before the season has even started, as Trey Murphy III went down with a hamstring strain at the start of training camp. He should be available soon, but there's a chance that he might have to miss a few games to begin the year.

Between Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans employ two of the more injury-prone stars in the league. Last season, Zion was able to put together his healthiest campaign to date with 70 games played, but he'll have to prove that it was the start of a new trend and not just an anomaly.

New Orleans will be hoping that their Dejounte Murray acquisition will help to keep them afloat if any of their core players do have to miss time, but with their thinned-out depth, it could be even worse for the Pelicans this time around.

Over: Zion takes the leap

Zion not only had his healthiest season last year, he also made some real strides as a primary offensive option and playmaker. New Orleans had him initiating a lot of their offense, and he responded with aplomb. He improved as a passer, showing a better understanding of NBA defenses and how to beat them with the pass. He was patient and efficient with his own offense, picking his spots and taking over the game whenever the Pelicans needed him to.

With 70 games played last year, Zion was eligible for the league's major awards and the All-NBA teams. Unfortunately, he fell short of any honors. This upcoming season, armed with a new body and challenged to expand his offensive repertoire, Williamson has said that he's hell-bent on revenge. If he can take a meaningful leap in his game, something that's not uncommon to see from a 24-year-old superstar, the Pelicans should easily clear 45 wins.

Under: Small-ball comes up short

There have been enough words written about the Pelicans' discouraging center rotation to rebuild the Library of Alexandria, many of them coming from myself. Still, there's a reason it's been such a huge topic of discussion. The group comprises just Daniel Theis, rookie Yves Missi, and preseason no-show Karlo Matkovic.

The Pelicans and Head Coach Willie Green have been candid about the need to play small next season because of their precarious center depth, with Herb Jones expected to be the primary five in those line-ups. Jones is an incredible defender who can more than hold his own against big men on switches, but sticking him on the center could wind up a disastrous move for New Orleans.

Firstly, it'll remove the Pelicans' best perimeter and help defender. Secondly, Jones is capable of moonlighting as a weakside rim protector and can wall off many post players but that doesn't mean that he'll be a successful full-time center. Perhaps Green will give the small-ball five keys to Zion instead but that might not turn out as breezy as many fans have imagined.

Over: Pelicans outpace the league

While New Orleans does have a massive hole at center, the rest of the roster is extremely well-equipped to play fast. With another elite ball-handler and shot-creator on the roster in Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans have more than enough playmaking and athleticism to simply overwhelm teams by outrunning and outgunning them.

They'll almost certainly take a step back on defense due to their center situation, but Willie Green's scheme has them well-prepared to be an effective unit on that end of the court even without a true anchor. They'll be switchable and rely heavily on early help and crisp rotations, things that pair well with a team aiming to play fast and small.

Anytime that the Pelicans have Zion as their only true big man on the court, he should have an easy mismatch on him at all times. If he can consistently and reliably dominate opposing centers, New Orleans will either run down teams regularly or force them to go small to try to match pace. The James Harden-era Houston Rockets did it. The Kenneth Faried and Ty Lawson Denver Nuggets did it. Maybe New Orleans will be the next great small-ball team in the NBA.