Can Anthony Davis Really Be Next Season’s MVP?

Anthony Davis is good at basketball. Actually, Anthony Davis is really good at basketball. In fact, Davis is so good that Grantland’s Zach Lowe pegged Davis as his favorite to be next season’s MVP in his recent podcast. Those are some lofty expectations (no pressure, Anthony). From a talent standpoint, Davis clearly has the ability to elevate his game next season to heights that cement him as the undisputed best player in the game. But, what will it take for Anthony Davis to be the first big man to win the award since Dirk Nowitzki did it in the 2006-07 season?

As far as production is concerned, Davis doesn’t need to do much more. He averaged an incredible 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks last season, per basketball-reference.com. Those already look like MVP numbers. To push him over the top, he probably needs to average at least 25 points. Davis will easily surpass that with his expected increase in usage in Alvin Gentry’s offense.

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Steph Curry was the first player to win the award averaging less than 25 points since the previously mentioned Dirk Nowitzki in 2006-07, so it can safely be assumed that 25 points is a sort of scoring floor for winners of the award. If Davis can maintain his rebounding and defensive production and boost his scoring, his case for MVP will be incredibly strong.

There is a much bigger obstacle for Anthony Davis than individual production.

The last five MVPs have led their teams to 67, 59, 66, 46, and 62 wins. Lebron James led the Miami Heat to 46 wins in the lockout shortened season. If the Heat maintained their winning percentage, they would have won 57 games in a normal 82 game season. Last season, the Pelicans only won 45 games, while the average team of the MVP has won 62. Can it be reasonably expected that the Pelicans will win 17 more games next season than last?

A lot of the record depends on things outside of Davis’ control. Will Jrue Holiday‘s glass leg shatter again this season? Can Eric Gordon keep shooting at an elite level? Can Omer Asik overcome his aversion to jumping so he isn’t continuously rejected by the rim? These are the things that need to happen for the Pelicans to make the necessary jump in record.

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Also, remember how it was mentioned earlier that Dirk Nowitzki was the last big man to be MVP? He’s the only big that has won the award in the last decade.

The MVP race is, after all, a popularity contest as much as it is a measurement of value. Guards and wings tend to be flashier, and they make a lot more highlight reels. On a positive note, though, the Pelicans will be playing on opening night against the defending champs and on Christmas against the Miami Heat. A little more national exposure couldn’t hurt his odds.

Can Davis be the MVP next year? Certainly. Is it likely? Probably not. It’s highly unlikely that the Pelicans are able to win enough games to put him at the top of the list. It is not the end of the world if he is not MVP next season. Davis is only 22 years old and still getting better (scary, right?). There is plenty of time for him to accumulate more awards than previously thought possible. It’s crazy enough to be talking about him winning the award this early.

Enjoy the ride, Pelicans fans. Davis truly is a once in a lifetime talent.

Next: Just Let Anthony Davis Be Fun Without Tearing Him Down

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