Measuring New Orleans Pelicans’ success in the Zion Williamson era
The New Orleans Pelicans will have to decide how to build the roster after Anthony Davis is traded. How they do so will determine if the Zion Williamson era is a success.
Not every off-season is held hostage by a star’s pending trade demand. This summer already promised to be more hectic than most. The New Orleans Pelicans’ guile in free agency going forward will determine their fate for more than this summer’s Anthony Davis trade haul.
Anthony Davis’ demands and the Kevin Durant injury has the NBA world in near frantic state. Thankfully, David Griffin and Trajan Langdon have been patient in making a move. Their approach to building a contending culture through Zion Williamson’s rookie contract will require the same patience.
Looking at the New Orleans Pelicans’ books, let’s all be optimistic and assume Jrue Holiday will at least play out his current contract. The nature of the business will be cruel that last season, however. He will either sign an extension, or will be traded in the last year of the deal.
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Holiday will be an unrestricted free agent in 2022, Williamson’s fourth season. For the sake of this model, let’s imagine Holiday receives a three year extension with a 10% raise. Holiday would be 33 years old, getting his last large contract.
The new CBA and current rise of league revenues, plus Holiday’s exceptional play getting more recognition, seems to merit Holiday at approximately $30 million. If the cap kept rising, to say just over $150 million, Holiday would be less than 20% of the team’s cap hit.
Zion Williamson will be offered the full 120% rookie scale salary, the max allowed. He will count for just under ten percent of the cap for his rookie season. His rookie scale contract will make him one of the best bargains in the NBA, even at around $10 million with escalators in the third and fourth season.
Holiday could also be signed using “over the cap” money. Gayle Benson going deep into the luxury tax would happen in the window three to six year from now. That covers the last year of Williamson’s rookie deal, and his restricted free agent contract.
The Pelicans will have to maximize that window. Anthony Davis only managed a single playoff series win in that same period. He is demanding a trade now, pointing at the front office and supporting cast as the main reasons.
The Griffin, Langdon, Aaron Nelson, and Swin Cash era will be judged on that window as well. Holiday, Williamson, and a young core will account for around half the cap sheet in 2020. It is the other half of the roster that will determine if this era is a success. Replacing Davis’ production is just part of the equation.
The new front office will be judged by the fans, players, and the league as a whole. Stepping into New Orleans Pelicans’ jobs with grand plans and an NBA draft lottery win was the easy part. Inheriting Jrue Holiday was a perk of the job for Griffin.
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Utilizing the incoming draft picks and acres of cap space properly is the only way for everyone to keep those jobs after Holiday’s contract expires. Even Holiday will be watching, and will hopefully contemplate an extension with the New Orleans Pelicans more than a trade demand to continue his new partnership with Zion Williamson.