Lonzo Ball is reportedly on the trade block for the New Orleans Pelicans, but he should not be discarded so quickly.
Lonzo Ball is one of the NBA’s most polarizing players. Some games, he looks like every bit of the no. 2 pick he was in the 2017 draft. Others, he resembles an end-of-the-bench point guard who is unreliable from three and is shy attacking the basket.
The truth about Ball right now is actually somewhere in between, although I would wager much more towards the positive end of the spectrum.
The former UCLA guard is not going to put up 27 points and 8 assists every night like he did against one of the best teams in the league. This was a season-high for him and Ball had only scored more than 25 points in a game thrice in his career prior to his outing against Milwaukee.
I think it’s important to highlight that in the wake of one of his best ever games because Ball is especially prone to receiving criticism when he doesn’t stuff the stat sheet. I find that unfair, but not unwarranted. It is indisputably true that Ball has plenty of shortcomings.
Four seasons into his NBA career, Ball still does not look completely natural as a half-court point guard, although he has greatly improved in that respect. He was always fighting back against time after not running traditional offenses in high school or college.
Ball also is not aggressive at all going to the basket, only averaging a smidge over a free throw per game—unacceptable for a starting point guard, really. I guarantee you that, at least once per season, you’ll hear a commentator say some variation “if only Ball attacked like this on a regular basis” after a strong take to the rim. He showed this weakness against the Bucks, as seen in the clip below.
Ball does not enjoy playing through contact. He has the chance to go hard to the rim in transition and possibly draw a foul on Brook Lopez. Instead, he shrinks at the last second and ends up getting blocked by the Milwaukee big man. This is a sequence that Ball often repeats, partly because his numbers at the free-throw line are abysmal (under 50 percent in his career).
Yet, I think that because the parts of Ball’s game that need to improve are so amplified, the areas where he actually has become better are often ignored.
It’s important to note that these improvements are yet to show up on the stat sheet consistently and that progress definitely is not linear. But if Ball stock was being sold in this volatile and trendy stock market, then I’d definitely get in on $ZO because it will go up in time if you look at what’s going on between the lines.
New Orleans Pelicans: The signs are there from three for Lonzo Ball
Ball’s three-point shooting has served as a bulwark for his most strident critics throughout his NBA career, but it is very possible that he has turned a corner in that area for the New Orleans Pelicans.
After shooting over 37 percent from deep last season, Ball’s numbers beyond the arc have regressed to 30 percent. It sounds and looks counterproductive, but a few things have to be taken into account here.
The most simple one is the work that has gone into bettering Ball’s shooting mechanics. He has worked fervently with Pelicans assistant coach Fred Vinson to revamp his shot and the result is a much easier, smoother stroke.
The difference between Ball and Brandon Ingram, who also worked closely with Vinson, is that Ingram’s work off the court is being translated into numbers on the court. The Pelicans forward is shooting a career-high in field goals and three-pointers. This uptick is yet to happen for Ball, but I don’t think it’s unrealistic to check back in a few months and see a comparable improvement.
I believe Ball’s three-point “struggles” have been compounded by a single awful streak. Ball has missed three games this season because of injury. It just so happens that, counting the two games before his absence and the one upon his return, he shot 14 percent from three. Without those three games on his record, Ball would be up to 39 percent on his three-pointers on fairly high volume—a figure I believe more accurately reflects where his shot is at.
It is also crucial to mention the suboptimal role Ball plays on this Pelicans team, which did not change in the New Orleans Pelicans win over the Bucks despite his improved performance. Ball is used as a floor spacer and spot-up shooter for long stretches of games. I have previously written about how this Ball thrives on pace, spacing, and movement—but Stan Van Gundy does not appear primed to make any changes soon, so it is what it is right now.
That leaves Ball taking a career-high number of shots from deep while not having much of a chance to get into his own rhythm. Over 61 percent of Ball’s shots are threes and he has more catch-and-shoot attempts than anyone on the New Orleans squad. He is also second in pull-up threes, which he makes at a very good 39 percent clip.
New Orleans Pelicans: Lonzo Ball’s mid-range game has improved
Another area in which Ball has taken a step forward is his mid-range scoring. In all fairness, he could only improve. He was a complete zero from this area of the floor in prior seasons, not really willing to pull up from in between and also maybe not capable of doing so fluidly because of the pronounced sideways pull-up motion his previous shot had.
Now that his shot looks better, Ball looks much less hesitant taking a mid-range pull-up when defenses present him with the opportunity. I want to see Ball take shots like the one below.
A staple of this Pelicans offense under Stan Van Gundy has been a Steven Adams screen into a pull-up two by the ballhandler. This tends to be Brandon Ingram or Nickeil Alexander-Walker, but if Ball shows that he merits this shot, he could potentially become more involved on the attack.
Donte DiVincenzo gets caught on Adams’ screen, Brook Lopez stays back, and Ball swishes the pull-up. This is a new arrow in Ball’s quiver that will help unlock the rest of his game.
One area that Ball does not have to unlock, though, is his passing. His vision is well documented by this point of his career, but it’s always worth reiterating because Ball’s team can count on it every night.
Ball led the Pelicans with eight assists against Milwaukee, one of the top teams in the association. He was steady, only turning the ball over twice in 35 minutes, and reliable even during the Bucks’ attempted comeback. Three of his eight assists came in the last quarter.
In the clip above, he makes an important outlet pass at a pivotal time of the game. After collecting Khris Middleton’s miss, Ball makes a heads-up play, perfectly lobbing the one-handed outlet over the outstretched arms of Giannis Antetokounmpo and right into Ingram’s pocket.
Ball still has a tendency to wildly fluctuate as a player, but he is still only 23-years-old. It’s just that he has been in the spotlight forever. A lot of NBA guards don’t have everything put together at that age and later flourish to become All-Stars or All-NBA types, such as Kyle Lowry.
It’s easy to give up on Ball when he has rough nights—more of which will undoubtedly come this season—but it should also be viable to buy in and have faith that all of his positives will eventually come together.